5G Korea, Huawei inside

According to Pulse and other media*, Huawei will open next month its first 5G Open Lab in the world in Seoul.

Of course, earlier this month, Korea became the first country in the world to launch 5G commercially (even if for enterprise customers only at the beginning). Korea Inc precipitated the launch just to achieve that premiere, SK Telecom, KT, and LG U+ literally beating Verizon on the eleventh hour.

If local MNOs don't communicate much on their 5G network suppliers, Huawei already holds significant positions in Korea, as a recent Asan Institute focus** noticed:
- LG U+'s 4G network in Seoul, Northern Gyeonggi-do, Incheon, and Gangwon-do, in other words its most strategic areas (capital region, and all borders with North Korea)
- parts of Naver's new Internet Data Center
- KT's network upgrade for NonHyeop Bank, a big 4 player

Korea Inc does communicate on a key 5G supplier, Samsung, who clearly won the first round at the smartphone level with its Galaxy S10 5G.

Another of their groundbreaking handsets, the Galaxy Fold, received mixed reviews from the few journalists who were granted one ahead of the official launch, but the manufacturer did warn them that they shouldn't have pulled out the plastic protection away from the delicate screen.

Interesting to see what happens when the veil is lifted about Huawei's presence in the country.


mot-bile 2019

* "Huawei to open its world’s first 5G open lab in Seoul in May" (Pulse 20190422)
** "Opportunities and Challenges for South Korea in the New Era of 5G" (J. James KIM, HONG Sanghwa - Asan Institute 20190321)

Windows Mobile Go Home

The mercato is over, and while Vodafone-Verizon clinched a long expected Tottenham-Real Madrid-Garreth-Bale kind of deal, Nokia and Microsoft ended their 1990s rivalry at Intertoto Cup levels.

EUR 3.79 bn for the business units, and EUR 1.65 bn for the patents: that's all Nokia mobiles and their 32,000 employees are worth today. To add insult to injury, the buyer is generous. Microsoft would have dreamed to do just that a decade ago but today, the move sounds like a bitter defeat for two former foes years of decline had already brought close to each other (to the point Nokia's CEO - an aptly named Mr Elop - came from Redmond).

Blackberry should follow soon, but even that won't save Windows Mobile OS. Microsoft will have to leave its incredible shrinking comfort zone, slash royalties, or why not go Home, like Facebook did (a much cheaper mode of diffusion for blue screens).

Of course, the move doesn't disrupt in any way the ecosystem. It only puts more pressure on Steve Ballmer's successor. Google can rest for a little while: these days, neither Apple nor Microsoft seem to have a clue, and software-wise, Samsung remains a gnome. So no major challenges in the short term except themselves, regulators, or a new alternative popping up out of the blue (China could do that, but trust would be an issue).


mot-bile 2013

15 Gigas of fame for metroPCS : Samsung Craft 4G LTE (SCH-R900)

Samsung confirmed today to Yonhap that metroPCS Wireless Inc., a CDMA player, would launch its SCH-R900 4G model (LTE with 3G CDMA) in the US. The gizmo had been announced by metroPCS last March, and approved by the FCC last month (leaks for geeks included).

At the OS level, Android remains a favorite.

At the network level, metroPCS has rolled out LTE on places where people love to show off : Las Vegas and Dallas.

At the pricing level, observers expect a $300 price tag, but even more interesting to see will be how aggressively this MNO, specialized in discount and prepaid, will price data. The Texas-based company operates on major US markets, and claims over 7 million subs.

Verizon Wireless & co won't let it enjoy TTM leadership for too long, and they will roll out more aggressively.

Until then, great opportunity to shine. How about Warholian 15 Gigas, the data equivalent to the 15 minutes of fame ?

mot-bile 2010

Motorola's Android Tablet : Focus On TV (Apple, Amazon, Others Watching)

Motorola and Android have already met, but Motorola and tablets are a new item.

The 10 inch screen device would be bundled with Verizon FiOS TV (pay-TV) service, which makes perfect sense. Much more sense than say Nokia, to name a fabled marketing counter-example... Let's see how rivals will move, for instance how Samsung will position its own Android tablet, smaller in size but with a screen of potentially much better quality, and a better grasp at personal computing.

But this is first about entertainment, and Verizon takes and interesting shot in the convergence barnum. Most quadplay operators across the World have necessarily been, if not working on, at least thinking about a "tabletish" gizmo to complete the set of home / away screens, and if people start (for instance) massively and legally downloading and watching movies with an Android 3.0 / 3G ticket on their tablet this November, xmas season looks fine...

Except maybe for Amazon : expect even more push marketing until then... unless of course Jeff Bezos manages to stevejobs a new Kindle feature high up into the buzzosphere.


mot-bile 2010

Google and Verizon eye a pad - or at least a patch

In interviews to the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg*, two Verizon Wireless execs confirmed the carrier's discussions with Google to launch a tablet running on Android OS.

The absence of such discussions would have been surprising.

Verizon and Google will probably accelerate TTM for one manufacturer, very much the way they did with Motorola for Android handsets, and together they have enough power and motivation to close the gap.

Close the gap ? For Verizon Wireless, tablet TTM is definitely less important than LTE TTM, and recent LTE trials in Boston seem to confirm this sense of emergency. VZW can not only remove its CDMA-GSM handicap vs AT&T, but also enjoy a temporary competitive edge when its Texan rivals struggle with capacity issues (partly courtesy Apple). Likewise, tablets and other devices will be less critical than the ecosystems behind : AT&T may or may not keep its exclusivity with Apple for the iPhone until 2012, it still managed to open up to both the Kindle and the iPad. V wants more control on the value chain than pipe filling, and on a more sustainable basis ? Time to prove it.

Close the gap ? I never considered the key race to be between Apple and Google. Mountain View is more aiming at Redmond's throat than at Cupertino's. Yes, Apple the manufacturer is succeeding where Nokia the manufacturer failed, in trade diversification**, but Apple will never enjoy Nokia's record market shares. Yes, Apple played the role of an accelerator for existing usages and business models (ie didn't invent smartphones nor app stores), but Google can go much further and not just because, as expected, it's pushing Android ahead on handsets : Google can literally become a category killer for the wealthiest players around in the telecom and software industries. Operators know it, Microsoft knows it. A success of Google's instant cloud scratchers on bigger screens represent a much bigger disruption than the iPad itself (not really a game changer in the global ecosystem).


mot-bile 2010

* "Verizon, Google Developing iPad Rival" (WSJ) / "Google, Verizon in Talks About a Rival to Apple's iPad" (Bloomberg)
** OK, Nokia has gone a long way from timber

Broadband by Google "small dot" com : cloudy, with chances of bitballs

mot-bile 2010 - Over 190,000 individuals and 1,100 communities contributed to Google's request for information about its "experimental fiber network"*.

Of course, the aim of this RFI was to optimize the buzz, to impress the FCC, and to scare competitors : the only thing Big G keeps saying about its "Ultra high speed broadband" project is that it will reach 1 Gbps FTTH (don't expect Google Broadband to be con-TISPated**), and that the "experience" will involve between 50,000 and 500,000 customers (small figures for a boolean search, but half a million sounds like a Warren Beatty kind of testbed).

So instead of a network coverage map, Google delivered this splendid PR map where "each small dot represents a government response, and each large dot represents locations where more than 1,000 residents submitted a nomination" :



And "wherever we decide to build" is up to us guys.

Said guys are in Vegas (along with Google, of course) at the CTIA show, listening to T-mobile about 3G++, Verizon Wireless about LTE, and Sprint about "4G" WiMAX***. All making plans to prevent network overloads courtesy iPhone, Android et al.

Next thing you know your Ma and Pa CLEC / coop telco looks attractive again because Google needs a really rural testbed in Armpit, ND or any other "small dot" on their map to tell the FCC they're not only rolling out fiber in San Mateo or Houston.

Wheather forecasts ? Cloudy, with chances of bitballs.

* "Next steps for our experimental fiber network" (Official Google Blog 20100326). Note that the number of communities almost doubled between the 3/26/2010 10:00:00 AM post and its 3/26/2010 05:26:00 AM update.
** "Google TiSP - US Open at Flushing Windows"
*** "HTC EVO 4G : Sprinting to 4G... or rather 4G WiMAX/3G EV-DO Rev. A"

In Google times, where are the operators ?

Google and Verizon Wireless will release several Android devices every year, starting with two in 2009 (courtesy HTC and Motorola), contributing to a global roaster of 18 gizmos for this OS.

Microsoft announced 30 Windows Mobile 6.5 devices by EOY 2009. It speaks volumes of Redmond's intentions to remain ahead of Apple in smartphones. Or to remain in smartphones altogether.

Ever the sexier BlackBerry announced the Storm of the century and new Curves.

Meanwhile, Kindle goes global : Amazon intends to become the worldwide cultural leader before Apple makes its splash in the ebook reader / app space.

We're talking platforms and OS but Amazon is into grocery, Google into advertising, Microsoft into healthcare (a cash cow for antivirus labs). BlackBerry ? A "manufactoperator" which somehow succeeded in opening itself without losing its consistency.

Nokia "pushes" Symbian as a Wikipedia style fundation, Palm "WebOS" as a more or less open platform (open as in up for grabs ?)... but the mojo seems to belong to the Open Handset Alliance, the movement supporting Android. Verizon Wireless is not even a member, and SonyEricsson could be jumping on board anytime soon, along with other nondescript manufacturers and operators.

The OS wars are not over. They're simply getting more boring. Differenciation will at last converge towards that forsaken player, the user.

Social networking for social networks

With Yahoo!'s oneConnect, mobile users will enjoy one interface to synchronise all their social networking services (Facebook, LinkedIn, MySpace).

Except for the "contacts" part of the services.

What a shame. Imagine Steve Balmer wants to become your friend while you're on the go...

Talking about Stevie Nowonder : he's daring to buy Danger. So Microsoft's idea of innovation is to purchase a netco that used to be hype in the mid 90s and a small manufacturer that happened to make one hype device in the early 2000s ? Danger is my middle name, but I just use the initial : D as in "Dfence"... at least SonyEricsson is joining the Windows Mobile wagon.

Social networking again : Orange and T-Mobile will launch mobile TV in the UK using TDtv technology from NextWave Wireless (formerly known as IP Wireless). No spectrum hassles here, unlike with DVB-H. And as we recently saw*, Orange will soon be able to put satellite on the top of it.

Qualcomm is fuming : no one wants its MediaFLO, nor its UMB, nor its 4G (key CDMA players, including Verizon Wireless, are going for LTE).

Maybe Qualcomm should have tried social networking instead of asocial pervasive licensing.

* see "Orange has its rights, Orange has it right" (20080210)

Back To Square Auctions

AT&T and Verizon trembling, Vodafone sweating, Cox, Cablevision Systems Corporation and EchoStar waiting, Qualcomm peeping, Google smiling... and the FCC counting the billions...

... Welcome to the 2008 700 MHz wireless spectrum. A few blocks up for grabs*, 214 potential bidders, and no winner will be known before the end of the whole process.

Some losers have already made the headlines, or rather the frontline of an obscure web page : "01.12.08 Frontline Wireless statement - Frontline Wireless is closed for business at this time. We have no further comment." Which means Frontline Wireless is already out of the race, and out of business without having ever been in.

This is a wild race and a wild world. We are talking wide and deep coverage : this spectrum will help go through large areas, through walls. The FCC even proposes a "Tribal Land bidding credit" for someone who would care for uncovered reserves. How generous from an organization that optimizes the chances of a 2000-2001 redux.

We're talking CLEC of the wireless kind, FMC and the whole shebang. We're talking about scared incumbents in the mobile as well as in the fixed areas.

Back then, T-Mobile would add a few rounds in the German auctions - totally unnecessary, except for the government. I guess they wish they had that money right now.

Chances are the biggest winners won't get one bit of spectrum at the end of the day.

Meanwhile, France is discounting the entry ticket for its fourth 3G license.


* 1,099 licenses overall - Block A : 176 EA (Economic Area) licenses - Block B : 734 CMA (Cellular Market Area) license - Block C : 12 REAG (Regional EA Grouping) - Block D : 1 national license for public / private partnership - Block C : 176 EA (minimum bidding price : USD 4.6 bn). The 698-806 MHz band was freed by TV broadcasters switching to DTV.

VizaOzavi and other bull's eyes

What's in a name ? With zaOza*, Vivendi decided to drop 2 "vi"s at the edge of Vizzavi, and to add a bull's eye in the middle. Like : this time, I don't want to mess around but to go for the real thing ?... Maybe they purchased Activision to enhance their eyesight and optimize their chances to hit the said bull's eye.

Vodafone and Telefonica are into better targeting too : the Anglo-saxon leader and the Latino leader took a stake in Amobee Media Systems, a mobile advertising joint.

The Shoogle application must target Parkinson disease victims, blurring the frontier between handsets and handshakes. Next time you go to the pub, don't forget to fill her up with scotch.

SMobile Systems targets the soft spot of mobile linux : the first Android app is as sexy and useful as Norton. SecurityShield is the name, paving the way for developpers the game.

Elsewhere :

- NFC takes the tube - the London Underground before a greater coming out ?
- Outdoors, the OFCOM allows UK Broadband switch from TD-CDMA to WiMAX. If they can make it, that is. WiMAX seems to be losing ground in the US, where Verizon picks LTE.
- Korea keeps migrating at high speed : HSDPA claims 3.2 M subs end of Q3 2007 (2.02 for KTF). Users are discovering the beauty of (U)SIM cards and the easyness to drop a handset or an operator for another.
- Turned down by Sprint-Nextel (while KTF and DoCoMo snatched each 17% of U Mobile in Malaysia), SK Telecom takes 38.89% of Hanaro Telecom (including a 25% market share in fixed broadband). SKT discovers true convergence even later than Vodafone - and postpones a much needed boost in internationalization.


* the commercial name of "Vivendi Mobile Entertainment : Vizzavi's Second Life ? " (20070526)

Saint Hubert Mobile, pray for customer hunters

1.18% of the market, that was Frederic Nihous's score at the French presidential elections last April. Predecessor Jean de Saint Josse got 4.23% back in 2002. How much will Sebastien Harle d’Ophove get ?

The founder of Saint Hubert Mobile, the first MVNO by hunters for hunters, must be roaming the corridors of CPNT (Chasse Peche Nature et Tradition), the French pro-hunting pro-rural party / lobby who pushed Saint Josse and Nihous, not to mention 245 candidates for the recent legislative election. "SHO", who used to work for Belgian MNO Base, needs to build another base from scratch. And the first logical step is to try and scare up a few preys among the 420,645 people who casted a ballot for Nihous 2 months ago.

Oh my deer... niche marketing if I ever saw one !

Saint Hubert, patron of hunters, is hosted by MVNE Coriolis... not much of a guarantee either. These days, fellow French and European MVNOs are hunting investors more eagerly than they are hunting customers. Bad vibes for Ten Mobile, debitel, TDC... not to mention Amp'd in the US (under cash perfusion from Verizon Wireless).

easymobile tries to survive by changing business models in a Blyk. I come for free, advertising can finance everything, I'll grow the helluva big customer base and be the king of the hill.

How many "free" ISPs survived ? At least those could bloom in a dial-up, non-broadband era...

Actual hunters won't waste time nor bullets for such poor game.

embedded 3G+ and better rates

Strategy Analytics expects a 60% boom for embedded 3G in 2007.
Wi-Fi has already found its slot on laptops*, WiMAX's democratization will take some time, and 3G offers the best bitrate / security / continuity of service mix around.
In the transitional period before the industry adopts embedded connectivity, PC cards will not be as trendy as they used to. USB modems are cool and more consumer-oriented. Less PC-oriented, too, since more devices are to become 3G enabled. SKT proved it last year (with T Login**), KTF a few days ago (with iPlug, a SBSM - Single Band Single Mode - W-CDMA service), and Verizon Wireless today (launching its EV-DO Revision A service with the Novatel USB720 modem announced last year).
Laptops are definitely ripe for embedded 3G and if possible, embedded HSDPA. W-CDMA was too light for many applications run on a laptop, and HSDPA keeps rocking and rolling across the globe. Even in Korea, the country formerly known as Qualcommland, where LGT will launch EV-DO Rev A during the second half : both SKT and KTF are dumping cdma2000 for the W-CDMA - HSDPA - HSUPA - HSOPA roadmap, both will enjoy a nationwide HSDPA coverage this year, and both mean business.
KTF, for example, did launch iPlug with a USB data card, but intends to HSDPA-enable 50% of its handset line-up this year and 90% next year. KTF will have migrated half of its customer base from CDMA to W-CDMA and beyond by 2008 and 100% by 2012.
There is already a fierce competition in subsidies, and data rates should follow soon. SK Telecom just decided to reduce the data fee ceiling (and the level from which benefits are given) from 200 to KRW 150,000, and to slash its "Ting Data Free" flat data rates for teenagers by 30%. Officially, heavy bills deter many customers giving it a try without a flat rate offer (a generally binding and expensive item). But if boosting new usages sounds a noble cause, defending leadership may be a more plausible motivation for Korea's leading MNO : KTF proved a better competitor last year and will strike very hard in 2007. A new marketing culture is being pumped into KT's bureaucracies at the best moment : after years of regulatory hurdles, IPTV and quadruple plays will at last blossom in the Land of Broadband.


* it should keep spreading though, as the extension of the fixed sphere it was meant to be, and often on voice-centric devices - as it does through quad play offers
** see "T Login for HSDPA, EV-DO, WiBro and YouNameIt" (20060920). But today, I would be surprised if SK Telecom and Samsung were not considering embedded 3G+ as a part of their recent international partnership.

CES 2007 - a cup of T before China-To-The-Home

Another year, another light bulb show on The Strip. The 2007 International Consumer Electronics Show shouldn't bring major disruptions, only display the ability of some players to deliver more goods after Christmas.
Sin City ? Forget the booze and take a cup of T : the time has come for the mass market to hear about terabytes more often. Massive hard drives on one end, heavy entertainment on the other, and FTTH in between, the dice are rolling.
Spin City ? From "Let It Snow" to "Get It Now®", Verizon Wireless adds V CAST Mobile TV to V CAST Music, V CAST Video (YouTube ? YouBet !), Mobile Web 2.0(SM) and co. Yet, VZW won't be the star this year. Qualcomm ? He'll try to fool the paparazzis with his former Korean proteges (Samsung SCH-u620, LG VX9400), but Samsung and LG already displayed MediaFLO handset last CES 2006 and both are openly courting DMB and DVB*. Besides, Qualcomm is still being sued in Korea, where Microsoft is strictly monitored and Intel just decided to cancel a promising R&D center.
Sim City ? Is K-Pop still ruling the show ? LG's Points Of Presence also include dual format Blu-Ray / HD-DVD players and drives, and as far as content (with himself) is concerned, Bae Yong-jun just listed part of his company in Japan, where Yonsama on mobile keeps selling (there, this utterly corny hallyuwood fake is still considered a great actor)... put Helio On Top of it and you may think Korea holds a full house. Except China's massive investments in R&D and entertainment start showing. If not this year, on time for CES 2008.


* speaking of T, DVB-H and Las Vegas : I didn't hear any bird sing on the Hiwire / T-mobile trial.

Pandora's set top box

The F.C.C. ruled that municipalities had to take quick decisions (within 90 days) regarding video franchise agreements with telephone companies. Due to excessive delays, telcos often cannot compete with cablecos on their highly profitable turf (Comcast & Co charge an average $43 per month, 5% more than last year and double the rate of 10 years ago). And the battle reaches beyond services : rolling out a fiber optic network can be prevented on the ground that it can deliver television and video.
But Verizon & Co haven't won yet. Is the F.C.C. the relevant authority ? Is the American broadcasting ecosystem ready to open all gates at such a crossroads (convergence, DRM issues, free DIY n-to-n casting for everyone...) ?
We already know that USA doesn't mean United Spectrum of America, but things are not that easy in the fixed arena either, where Federal, State and local layers also pile up. We already know that US operators always finish last in the lobbying race : media / content groups are tough opponents and high tech players make sure the game remains open to all of their kind.
Ten to fifteen years ago, Europeans would dream of a US like market where local calls would be free and hundreds of TV channels available to almost everyone.
Nowadays, I guess many US players are envying their European counterparts. If they cannot even leverage on the scale of their own country / continent, they should be worrying about yet another set of competitors (Asia, Middle East, you name it).

AT&T U-Verse 1 - better than chapter 11

Born again AT&T introduced its U-verse concept at the 2005 CES, with the ambition of covering 18M homes by the end of 2008. FTTH IPTV services only started late last month in 5,000 homes in San Antonio, TX with the help of Verizon's FiOS network.
This offer would look rather disappointing to Korean eyes and wallets : no more than 6 megs, up to $120 per month for a wireless bundle... but hey that's a start and ain't that much competition in SBC's 13-state-wide kingdom, so let early adopters finance innovation.

AT&T already rules in SBCland with 7.4M ADSL lines, but they intend to reach 100% in broadband coverage thanks to various fibers in urban areas, satellite broadband in rural areas (Project Lightspeed is supposed to reach 5.5M low-income households by the end of 2009), and fixed wireless (WiMAX a top pick) to fill the blanks.

The first 13 states before the whole country... this state of the AT&T-SBC union address should resonate as a warning to competing superpowers : we're not only focusing on homeland security ; we're also preparing preemptive strikes everywhere. But the old Texan way : we don't want to make it sound like an aggression, so no need to add "bring it on".

I also find rather clever their partnership with Yahoo! and Verizon Wireless "for a generation of tech-savvy consumers who rely on the Internet and wireless phones as their primary communications tools" (to wit : the smart ones who are leaving the incumbent - a speechless and voiceless carrier). AT&T position themselves as a central integrator of services : we help you subscribe to AT&T Yahoo! High Speed Internet, and to Verizon Wireless as well if you need a wireless service, but you can still chose AT&T for voice services at home. Beyond the usual "free" LLO services (Call Waiting, Three-Way Calling, Call Forwarding...), the AT&T CallVantage package proposes well marketed bonuses :
- Call Logs (with "click to dial")
- Do Not Disturb (only emergency calls pass through)
- Personal Conferencing (10 people overall)
- Locate Me (when you're away from home, incoming calls track you by ringing up to five phones all at once or one right after the other)
- Web-Based Voice Mail (AT&T just couldn't not include it in such an offer)

Why is it so interesting ? I'm not sure it will work, but it's neither some double-stage VoIP thing like Skype, nor an ugly plug-in like Vonage's latest USB gizmo. It's a truly operated service from a genuine operator or better, a Virtual Network Operator on its own network. It's both a win-back and a win-period approach, an attempt to sublimate voice services and fully give them their value back. I wish it weren't that expensive and I wish it could go beyond fixed and mobile, and even beyond the now traditional homezone concept.

Voda results and a DVB-H Kartel

German MNOs definitely took their time to answer debitel's M-VNO - DMB combo*. Vodafone, E-Plus, O2 and T-Mobile unsurprisingly decided to push DVB-H, but their joint approach may prove counterproductive : it looks like clumsy lobbying from all 3G auction winners / losers (Telefonica included), with the benediction of the main lobbyist behind European UMTS then and DVB-H now (Nokia, a former Finnish timber company building forests for towercos). The message : we paid the price for your bad spectrum allocation management so this time let us do our job. We'll take care of everything and TV operators will enjoy an efficient one-stop-shopping system. Mobile TV belongs to us not to them, we need to recover some of our losses thank you.
Losses ? Voda painted their net loss of 21.9 billion pounds a rather T-Mobilish pink in a "Delivering against expectations" section where they "meet or exceed all financial guidance for FY05/06". Meet "financial guidance", the latest financial indicator... a sure hit after the 2000-2002 EBITDA wave, even if all analysts are not bound to dance on this one that easily.
Other remarks :
- over 5% of total revenues for the FY (10% for the last month) were generated by "3G devices", which means "3G" itself delivered much less than that.
- one year after the French NO (to the constitution as well as to the sale of SFR), Europe seems to have stalled. Spain looks fine but Voda warns the audience : fiercer competition in 2006 means weaker results ahead.
- messaging put aside, data jumped an impressive 60% but only represents 3% of controlled service revenue. Revenues can be "stimulated" but margin will improve much quicklier across the Red Empire through a much less glamour "disciplined execution".
- dividends are definitely following a positive curve but in such a context that sounds like a strategical dead-end
- The Verizon Wireless operation comes handy and I'm not sure it will be the case in the future. I see neither strategic vision nor long term commitment in the following statements : "Vodafone's board will always consider shareholder's value", "Vodafone is happy to remain in the US with its existing stake". Actually, I don't think shareholders are happy to remain with the existing lack of strategy.

Now moving on to the "Mobile Plus" revolution (which could be translated by "we cannot survive as mobile only but we cannot scream our loss of face so loudly so let's label fixed services as mobile extensions") : Vodafone At Home and Vodafone At Office were very much needed, and tapping into the advertising well makes perfect sense, but the company seems to define itself as a follower.

If I didn't expect Voda to turn into a daredevil overnight, a cultural shift demands at least some affirmation from a leader. Here, a "customer demand led" Vodafone cautiously dips a timid toe inside the fixed arena ("only the fixed services customers want") and doesn't even expose its own brand in the advertising field where it is so much relevant : to me, leveraging on Google only, a rival in location-based services, instead of developping the Vodafone brand is a strategic mistake.

Well... I've definitely not been very kind to Vodafone lately, but I'm holding no grudge against them. Only expressing some frustration considering what they could do. I felt the same about Orange a few years ago and I hope it won't take them as much time to deliver.

* see "CeBIT unnovations" (20060312)

Bells ringing - Vivendeals ahead

Baby Bells grew up since Ma Bell died. AT&T Jr and Verizon should snatch BellSouth and Qwest, and three years from now max, they somehow will have built an international stronghold in the wireless area.
Vodafone will sell (Verizon, Vodafone KK), but also buy. As rumors revived, the French government released a report on potential targets from France's CAC40 companies. Among them, Vivendi Universal are enjoying their own headline news : the "Universal" part is dropped, and SFR's lifetime ad agency, Publicis, just snatched the France Telecom - Orange budget. Maurice Levy can split his teams but not his own self. The new budget can definitely mean bigger money, but the risk should be taken only if Levy is sure of getting the whole Orange (especially after a Wanadoo rebranding), and not so sure of keeping the SFR business away from Vodafone adcos.
Vivendi could sell their cash cow but if they want to fight as a European leader in broadcasting an increasing competition, the timing looks perfect.

Voice Discounted, data embedded, TV Finnished

18 eurocents per mn, Alles Klar. klarmobil.de is mobilcom's latest vehicle to claim more customers and lower even more their revenues. Because subscriptions are up (4.55M end of June) but overall turnover down (-8% vs Q2 2004). So the operator communicates on a growing EBITDA per customer... New owners Texas Pacific Group obviously wanted to add sexier assets to their kolossales spectrum... up for sale but when and to whom ?

At last, 3G starts being embedded in laptops : Dell are working with Cingular on UMTS and should add HSDPA Q1 2006, and in the cdma2000 family, with Verizon on EV-DO (along with HP & IBM-Lenovo). W-CDMA and EV-DO proved their reliability and MNOs shouldn't miss the window of opportunity before the WiMAX - WiBro wave.

Nokia waited for the 2bn mobile sub mark to announce handset #1,000,000,000, so that stupid analysts can praise their 50% market share. Less stupid : the choice of Taiwan for a new R&D center devoted to 3G. The Mobile Services Development Center (MSDC) is a JV with the Institute for Information Industry and the perfect bridge with mainland China. This side of the Thames, Nok-Nok are about to start their Oxford DVB-H trial with Ariqva (see Row vs wideband), but 02 customers won't pay for the TV service... the aim of the game remains to duplicate an easy experiment everywhere across Europe and lobby regulators, not to validate the potential of a commercial service. And working with Microsoft definitely changed the way Nokia annouce future products : I cultivate the buzz far in advance (i.e. 4Gb Nokia N91 will combine W-CDMA and WiFi and laminate iPods) and I postpone the launch because of Redmond's embedded bug-and-glitches function.

Brand new KPN - Brand new USA - Same old standards

KPN-Telfort are not the sexiest player around but they do have interesting cards to play. Of course, these days, the buzz is about Telfort's HSDPA trials with HUAWEI for an expected H2 2006 TTM. But the buzz should rather be on the Chinese manufacturer gaining shares in the European handset market soon : their Huawei U636 UMTS/GPRS/GSM won't help the mainland get mainstream that early but it could be the begining of something*.
KPN are the ideal partner for a big brand wanting to build a solid base in Europe. This medium-size incumbent is gaining - if not momentum - confidence. Enough to consider taking a bite of O2 in Germany after wolfing down Telfort in the Netherlands. Enough to launch VoIP and In-car TV at home. Enough to try such unfamiliar M-VNOs as Ay-Tildiz (for Turkish communities) or MTV (for the youth - not the main brand but local channels : TMF in the NL, VIVA in Germany). Enough to have KPN Mobile, Telfort, E-Plus and Base bring cash flow. Yet the group lacks scale, thus the discussions with Deutsche Telekom regarding O2 Germany. And neither O2 nor KPN have brands, whether DoCoMo likes it or not**. Anyway, KPN's board is screaming "f..k me I'm getting famous".

The other side of the Atlantic, I found interesting Verizon Wireless' cut in unlimited 3G EV-DO charges for existing PC card subs : $59.99 per month***, that's a little bit less than 50 euros but certainly not an offensive move. If Verizon aimed at bigger market shares or even substitution, they wouldn't focus on their high value customers. Even if they're moving closer to Cingular Wireless (47M subs vs 49), they are clearly fearing churn and a fiercer competition. As a matter of fact, voice and data are being discounted (the Google Talk - Yahoo ! Dialpad - MSN Teleo war certainly won't help) and concentration is speeding up : number 3 Sprint finished swallowing Nextel and starts pushing EV-DO, Alltel just became number 5 after absorbing Western Wireless, and number 4 T-Mobile is almost up for sale (Vodafone would love to split from CDMA Verizon but they already have to get out of their KK quagmire, plus T-Mobile US may need $10 bn for network improvement and 3G licenses - Cablecos are also cited as potential predators). The market will definitely be fun watching as auctions are nearing. Remember the time when US operators would invest massively in Europe ?

Now US players are more interested in US players. History will tell whether the 600 million bucks Qualcomm will lay for Flarion and their FLASH OFDM (Fast Low-latency Access - Seamless Hand-off Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplex - Now You May Breathe) techno helped ever the microsoftian Doc Jacobs rule 4G or, to the contrary, postpone to 5G the rise of a truly universal mobile standard****.


* Bad news for Nokia, still struggling with a 17% market share in 3G.
** As expected, i-mode proved a low end and limited brand : 12% of E-Plus' customer base (1.158 M i-moders in Germany mid-2005), 11% of KPN Mobile's (725 K i-moders in the Netherlands), a symbolic 1% of BASE's (25 K i-moders in Belgium). Often praised as a successful NTT DoCoMo sales representative, Bouygues Telecom launched the service on November the 15th, 2002 but converted only 16% of their base end July 2005 (1,230,000 i-moders in France).
*** newcomers remaining at $79 and V-Cast - VW's unlimited handset access - at $15, the same price as Verizon DSL's 768K offer with a one year contract.
**** (gee, I gotta stop foot-noting my damn blogs) GSM+ is winning the propaganda war : to confront CDG's end H1 figures (128 cdma2000 operators +22 committed to deploy next year), the GSA (Global Mobile Suppliers Association) announced 96 operational GSM/EDGE networks in 60 countries out of a total of 153 networks committed to EDGE in 85 countries.

Flux your muscles, watch your wallet - music for a song ?

Viacom's MTV selected Japan and KDDI for their first subscription based music video service over 3G (Vids over 3G EVDO, then). I don't care if it raps, rocks or rolls but this rather sounds like classical music to my ears.
The other side of the East / West Sea, Korea's Daum are about to offer music for free to all their customers. Well, you can LISTEN to up to 3 songs a day within Musiccity's 400,000 song library, but the service usually costs W3,000 per month. All you have to do is being one of Daum's 35+ million subs. Obviously, the former leading portal seems allergic to MelOn, a key factor of success of SKT's Nate nowadays, along with Cyworld, the leader in homepages, a serious competitor to the Bank of Korea thanks to their quasi-currency loyalty program, and one of Musiccity's big customers. Because Musiccity is into "background music" and this kind of music seems likely to be heard far beyond its original mobile devices (elevators) : even if you can't podcast it, you can have people hear it wherever you post things (personal pages, blogs, e-mail ?). You don't even have to buy the latest 2.5 Gb-mp3-7-megapixel-4WD-phone to enjoy it*.
And what do the music majors think of this ? The Korea Music Copyright Association just gave their blessing, considering Daum already pays W125 / month / user.
Well. Once again, Korea's leading major is now a 60% SKT subsidiary.
A smarter combo ? Amp'd offers more than background music : back-uped content. I like the "safe haven" approach (for each download on your mobile phone - including mobisodes shot at Amp'd's brand new studios or your own content-, the US 3G EVDO MVNO will provide a simultaneous remote download), but I wonder if Amp'd can deliver before the big league players tune in, especially when they also envision ambitious multiplayer experiences with InfoSpace. Anyway : more hype announcements for Motorola and Kyocera, the suppliers supposed to release nice new handsets for Amp'd this fall. Remember lads : the word "fall" is zweideutig, and Moto have also been supposed to deliver ipod phones soon for a while... Verizon could hold the best spot for a takeover, being Amp'd's host through Verizon Wireless, but also a major US LLO.
Whatever the outcome, at the age of many-stop-storing and collaborative purchasing, at the age of Snocap and Mercora, you need a considerable reach by yourself and through your partners, but also more and more through not so loyal endusers.

Stephane

* You'd better invest on iRiver's latest player for your kid (ReingCom are now targeting the babies - I guess they'd better diversify beyond portable multimedia players). Anyway, any device will be more fun than Movida's : even in Puerto Rico you can't make people believe a Nokia 2270 will mobile-ize their life ("Moviliza tu vida" / "Get moving with Movida"). Talking about a revolution and an innovation... heard about Virgin Mobile's "disruptive" new service with BT Livetime ? TV over radio and an exciting EPG (Electronic Program Guide). That's DAB and SMS alerts... Radio Definitely Killed The Video Stars.