Star fees and Hutch

Hutchison Whampoa is selling its 51% participation in Partner Communications (to Scailex), which seems to make sense as far as geography and marketing are concerned :

- the Israeli operation carried the Orange brand

- the group operates in Europe and Asia-Pacific :
. via "3" : Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, Sweden, UK, and Australia (the new 50/50 Vodafone Hutchison Australia JV runs both Vodafone and "3" brands),
. via Hutchison Telecom International Limited / HTIL : Indonesia as "3", Sri Lanka and Thailand as "Hutch", and Vietnam as Vietnamobile
. via HTIL's spin off Hutchison HK Holdings / HTHKH : Hong-Kong & Macau as "3".

"Hutch" as a brand has been dead ever since the group sold its participation in India (see "3GSM 2007 - A brave new World ? A new and improved Vodafone ?/em>"). Lately, Sri Lanka and Thailand operations have been struggling in most unstable contexts. HWL shall either try to dump them or to switch to "3", as the hybrid logo in Thailand seem to tell. Without India (now Vodafone Essar), Sri Lanka has a relatively limited potential : 20 million inhabitants vs 63 for Thailand, 86 for Vietnam, and of course 237 for Indonesia.

Switching from CDMA to GSM in Vietnam costs a lot. Rolling out networks in emerging countries costs a lot. Competing in the handset arena, even with smart solutions*, costs a lot. Running operations in highly competitive, saturated markets in Europe as well as Hong Kong, costs a lot. And this conglomerate is not as ripe with cash as it used to be.

Rumor has it more dividends could be shed. Such a counterproductive heresy should be counterbalanced with counterproductive promises of productivity increases. Depending on a financial holding can be such a drag.


* Facebook, Skype, and now Twitter shortcuts : after the INQ1, the group announced the INQ Mini 3G, along with a INQ Chat 3G with a full keyboard

3GSM 2007 - A brave new World ? A new and improved Vodafone ?

This week, Vodafone decided to send a few messages to the market :
- Purchase of Hutchison Essar ($11.7bn for a 67% controlling stake... provided Essar doesn't launch a counterattack tainted with economic patriotism*) : I intend to remain in the World's top 3 operators for subscribers and I'm gonna post exciting growth rates for the years to come. Certainly not for ARPU but I'm investing for the long term. And by the way : I'm still able to invest for higher purposes than the loyalty of my shareholders.
- Another deal with Orange on 3G network sharing : I prefer to invest on CAPEX in India where it will make a difference. I'm bracing for a fiercer competition in mature markets, where I will focus on service.
- An impressive collection of old and new partnerships with almost all major web players (Google for mapping, Yahoo! and Microsoft for IM, YouTube, eBay, MySpace...) : you think these newcomers are smarter and swifter, and you believe they will get the bulk of the value but look ! everybody wants to work with me and I'm certainly not begging for partners. They know who's ruling the game and you don't want to miss this train or else...

At last the big red machine decides to move. But I cannot see much disruption out there. It actually looks like their last smart move in Turkey, only at a bigger scale. I'd like to have more movements in the home / office spheres. Beyond WCDMA900, that is (Nokia providing UMTS900 for SFR after Portugal and Finland). To be continued...

Otherwise, 2007 doesn't look like a year for new paradygms :
- Qualcomm still wants to be the King of the Universe, but its Universal Broadcast Modem (UBM) combines MediaFLO technology, DVB-H and 1seg / ISDB-T without caring much for DMB... a slap on the wrist for those naughty koreans who want to kick it out of their country.
- Quadplays are getting mainstream. The Virgin-NTL combo, Virgin Media, charges £20 for 2, £30 for 3 and £40 for the first no-frills quads (the 125 pound gorilla offers unlimited calls in the fixed arena and 500 mn of mobile babbling plus a monthly data package including £60 in airtime and 1,000 SMS, along with the hardware - handset and PVR). Virgin Mobile will also strengthten its controlled distribution.
- Either terrified by Viviane Reding or cornered by an ever tougher competition, O2 extends My Europe to 31 countries. For £10 per month or £60 per year, business subscribers to My Europe Extra won't be charged for incoming calls whatever the network on which they are roaming. Intraeuropean calls will cost 25p per mn flat.

That could be the best news for 2007 (but for MNO shareholders) : the landline / mobile gap in calling rates is bound to decrease even before VoIP gets fully mobile. The competition goes beyond mobility and furthermore, from the customer's point of view, that's the minimum you could expect from convergence in a broadband world.


* Voda downsizes its participation in Bharti but still keeps a few toes in the venture.

La3 Live - Berlin or Bust - Aussie Yield Management

Remember when 3 snatched the mobile rights for the 2006 World Cup ? HWL's unit certainly didn't get all its money back but its PR teams make sure they made the most of it, even where they didn't pay. Some feed back from 3 World Cup participants : England, Italy and Australia.

• 3 UK claimed 3.6M viewings for its World Cup mobile TV channels during the competition. That's a 61% increase vs May and an average 106,000 per day but also, less impressively, the equivalent of one viewing per customer (3.5M overall). According to the operator, two programs proved quite successful : World Cup Highlights lured enough people everyday to fill Highbury (38,500 seats - make that one third of the total) and Berlin or Bust did 17.5% of the traffic.
  The most popular World Cup TV highlights were about England's glorious victories against the World's top 3 teams (Trinidad & Tobago, Paraguay and Equador), Zidane's infamous nod on Materazzi, and obviously the most important Becks-free game (Spain vs Ukraine - how many 3 handsets for the Rafael Benitez squad in Liverpool ?). The Berlin or Bust program was specifically designed for the event and users didn't have to pay anything to view it... well anything but 30 second ads for Canon, thanks to 3's marketing partner 4th Screen Advertising.
  In order to keep the show rolling and do better than the English team (no Berlin, just bust and crack some nuts), 3 offered through its Pilot Pitch unit a prize for the best mobile TV concept : TV producers can earn up to £50k for the funding of a pilot.
  -
  
• In Italia, Tre bet on DVB-H technology with the usual suspect (Nokia). La3 Live and its 9 channels were launched on June the 5th, right before the World Cup. The daily costs depends on the duration of the formula : 3 euros if by the day, 1.5 euros if by the week, 50c if by the semester. 3 expect 20% of the pop to use mobile TV by 2010 and targets 500,000 users for La3 Live by the end of the year. After 6 weeks of operation closely linked to the major sports event of the year, the cellco claims 110,000 users, and only give few insights about usage patterns (mostly outdoors, 40% of the time during office hours).
  -
• In Australia, 3 used the World Cup as a perfect yield management tool for its network : the games were played late at night and for AUS$ 8, you could have unlimited WC packages (videos, highlights and scores). On June 21st, 3 claimed 300,000 views after 12 days of competition and right before Australia-Croatia. Sessions lasted an average 6 mn, but some watched the whole game vs Japan... I hope none of these happy fews enjoyed a battery failure right before the Hiddink Boys' late come back.
  

Note that during the competition, 3 knotted a partnership with Yahoo!, who happens to be the FIFA's top internet partner.

Play it again, Samsung ?

Mainland Chinese mobile TV operators ordered 500,000 Samsung DMB-T phones, but in Hong-Kong SAR / Xiang-gang, big figures don't necessarily mean good news :

1. Hutchison Whampoa sold a 10% stake in 3, but to Goldman Sachs and for a lousy 420 million euros. They keep delaying the IPO and see their deal with Skype fall in the shadow of Telefonica's "Plug'n Talk" VoIPo3G solution (even if, for the beginning, it is limited to laptops & PCs through USB & Memory Sticks).
   
2. PCCW Wireless added 310,000 new 3G subscribers in January, but without disclosing the cost of their welcome packs (six month of line rental fees, 10,000 mn of local calls per month, unlimited SMS, unlimited 3G browsing... why did only 310,000 take it ?).

The Chinese jackpot was just one part of Samsung's PRsenal in Barcelona : the kings of crossbar confirmed their ambitions for DMB-T in Europe (trials with TF1 - Bouygues Telecom starting later this month, SGH-P900 on time for the 2006 World Cup, undisclosed negociations with several MNOs...), but will also be ready for DVB-H (SGH-P910) and MediaFLO. Besides, Koreans (for a start) will enjoy an exciting SPH-B4100 which allows simultaneous T-DMB and S-DMB*. There's also fish to fry about Microsoft (i320 with Windows Mobile 5 and a keyboard), HSDPA (Z560) and naturally WiBro (a new device - M8000 - and a new deal : Telecom Italia will use Samsung Wibro solutions next year).

To celebrate in music, Samsung decided to showcase a supposedly customer-oriented (but MNO / CSP driven) SecureMMC application lyrically dubbed "Music download service supporting OMA v2 DRM & MMC with Beep Science"... Play it again, Sam ?

Another player put his cards on the table : Option exhibited GlobeTrotter FUSION+ HSDPA (a HSDPA/UMTS/EDGE / Wi-Fi / PEPPERONI / ANCHOVIES combo Data Card) and GlobeTrotter GT MAX (a tri-band HSDPA / 3G UMTS Data Card already snatched by Cingular GlobalConnect for a promising new plan : unlimited at home + 100Mb abroad). Down the corridor, CSI Wireless tried to plug their fixed wireless (GSM or TDMA) phones : Series 405 (basic) and Series 415 (speaker phone capability + internet access & email via PC).

As expected, HSDPA is getting mainstream (ie Intel working hand in hand with the GSMA to boost embedded HSDPA in laptops) and HSUPA starts making noise far beyond the darkest alleys.

As expected also, "mobile TV" is more often heard than "wireless data". But even if "mobile goes TV" looks strong in the charts, this is only 3GSM radio, and we soon will move back to the "TV goes mobile" tune**.

* 2 channels at the same time, in other words. On the same mini-screen ? Korean will soon outclass Japan in miniaturization. When you think Ninendo consider adding a mobile TV tuner to their DS Portable gaming systems...

** the Murdoch lads managed to sell once again their Sky By Mobile (skybymobile.com) concept. This BSkyB's mobile counterpart to Sky By Broadband leverages on the whole Sky machine : Sky TV by mobile, Sky News, Sky Bet, Sky Digital, Sky Sports (including the Baclays Premiership and UEFA Champions League)...

At the count of 3, Hutch disappears and FOMA turns 20

3 added one million subs between Oct. 7 and Jan. 7, reaching a grand total of 11M : +10% over last quarter, the sales department can be proud... but how about the CFO ?
Hutchison Whampoa Limited are giving up the lead in Hutchison Telecom International Limited : Orascom Telecom* took 19.3% of it, leaving HWL right under 50% (49.8%). They may want to strenghten their wireless activity, they obviously don't want to consolidate it anymore.
Especially after HWL and HTIL secured (two weeks ago) a 5.1 bn rupee loan supposed to "enable the companies' two indirect non-wholly owned units, JayKay Finholding (India) Pvt Ltd and Usha Martin Telematics Ltd, to acquire shares to be issued by Hutchison Essar Ltd (HEL) pursuant to a rights issue"...
Now liberated from the Orange brand, Hutch Essar (formerly known as Hutchison Max) claim 10M subs and push their own new brand : "Hutch", symbolized by an ugly drooling dog. The name definitely has something to do with HWL, but the logo doesn't look 3ish at all. Furthermore, the color switched from orange to pink. Now whenever T-Mobile wants to make it into India, they'll have to tame this pet from HEL.
Vodafone badly wanted to make it into India and that made sense : Arun Sarin wasn't born in Helsinki, India is all the rage for investors worrying about a reverse Chinese syndrom, and Master Voda just loves winners (see how they dumped ManU for McLaren ?). So after wolfing Telsim down, Vodafone take another small slice of another big cake (after China Mobile, 10% of Bharti Tele-Ventures).
NTT DoCoMo with they could rule over China and India as well as they rule over Japan : they reached the 20M FOMA users mark right after reaching the 50M subscribers plateau. As expected, they will soon take over KDDI as the 3G leader at home : their 40% migration rate** should be compared to KDDI's 95%+ (nevermind Vodafone KK's 15%).
What wasn't expected from the beginning was the time it took them to catch up : they lost about 6 months to glitches that could have been avoided. And there, I'm not talking about the baby steps. Oh, by the way... did you notice how DoCoMo now claim they launched FOMA in October 2001 instead of May 2001 ? Another example of revisionism this side of the "Sea of Korea"...

* The Egyptian operator is growing ambitions : 14.5M subs 12/2004 end of 2004, 17,5M on March the 31st, 30M end of 2005. They keep advertising on CNN International, target 50M subs end of 2006 and should open new joints after Egypt (MobiNil), Algeria (Djezzy), Pakistan (Mobilink), Iraq (IraQna), Bangladesh (Banglalink), Tunisia (Tunisiana) and Zimbabwe (Telecel Zimbabwe).
** Also : 45.4M i-mode subs (90% of all customers) of which 32.5M have i-appli enabled kentais (70% of i-mode customers).

CAPEX and the city - curb your enthousiasm or six feet under

Cheers : Vodafone had to release some exciting news to their shareholders ? Welcome to their global mobile TV service ! The content looks fine (top HBO series, the UEFA Champions League...), but we're talking 3G W-CDMA TV and this isn't likely to solve their capacity troubles : if you want to watch Sex And The City on your mobile phone, your operator needs to play Capex And The City first (or better : switch to DVB / DMB). Farrington Road Films understood so well how much work had to be done they named their m-soap "Brick' it". Who knows ? there are more 3G network operators in the UK than there were little pigs in the tale, and more than one could have a house made of stone.
Fewer fireworks for the launch of ALDI Talk ; the hard discounter doesn't care about 3G nor mobile TV yet : Medion mobile simply target 750,000 subs interested in the cheapest voice money can buy (5 cents a mn or a SMS among Aldi Talkers, but triple that if you want to reach anyone else). EPlus are supporting this MMinus, which could outperform USA's Movida despite the impressive Wal-Mart - Cisnero Group combo (it's the economy, stupid - who cares about services ?).
Remember Vivendi's Xfera ? The Spanish 3G greenfield MNO will as initially planned launch for the World Cup in June and draft 600,000 customers by the end of that year. Too bad our Don QuiXfera went for the 2006 World Cup windmill instead of the 2002 one. Hutchison Whampoa are considering taking over this X-file.

Li cashing : it's now or never

UMTS TDD Alliance members will hold a meeting around Nov. 9-11 and NFC Forum members around Nov. 7-11 but don't expect the latter to have twice as much fun. Sprint and T-Mobile's Czech unit, who recently joined the Alliance following their trials at home, must have appreciated the interesting way an other IPWireless customer, UK Broadband, found for cashing in from their 3.5GHz spectrum or, as Vodafone would put it, to "Make the most of now".
This PCCW Ltd subsidiary expects £100M from their competitor : UK Broadband rebranded Netvigator "now", a word at the core of Voda's new advertising campain.
The fact is "now" is the brand at the core of PCCW's new strategy : in Hong-Kong, Netvigator is the access service provider's brand and now TV the media / content brand. Almost 2/3 of all Netvigator customers subscribe to now and PCCW are thinking globally. They merged their international section with BtN Access, Inc, a wholy owned subsidiary (that's for Beyond the Network, which sums it up) in order to create a new vehicle, PCCW Global.
And right now, this vehicle takes only two roads outside of Hong-Kong : Asia through China Netcom or Unihub IT, and "Europe" through UK Broadband. Plus Victor Li's group re-entered mobility through Sunday and MobileOne.
But Victor has also been confirmed as Li Ka-shing's successor. UK Broadband looks so small compared to his dad's flamboyant Oranges and Threes. Beyond Trinity Time Investments Inc, you want to watch how Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa could evolve in Europe. And we're not only talking about shopping at Marionnaud's.

Skype scrapers - continued

Watch out for piercing arrows from Amazon, folks. eBay eventually purchased Skype for a cool $2.6bn and with a clear intention : integrating it as soon as possible, especially with PayPal, and becoming a comm² co (commerce + communications).
All Skype's shareholders (including Hutch) are supposed to have agreed on the deal. The solution is definitely in better hands with a swift multi-platform giant than with a single operator or access provider, whatever its reach.
Beyond P2P / C2C, I'm sure eBay will develop interesting B2B solutions. Call centers, pick up your phones.

Skype scrapers

I wonder what Li Ka-Shing's Hutchison Whampoa will do of their 5% holding in Skype. Since Skype are into big packets and Hutch into logistics, the Hong-Kong mogul could start shipping voice on containers.
I wonder what Ruppert Murdoch would do if he were in his shoes. He too is rumored to covet Skype, and I guess he should be interested in a Voice over IP concept. As a over-hip competitor to "The Village Voice", that is.
Skype scrapers usually want to rise above the crowd. To the risk of becoming perfect targets. Ask Thomas Middlehof.

Over the air

Easy does it again : a few weeks after the UK and T-Mobile (where they expect between 250 and 500,000 subs end of year 1, reaching the 1M mark within 2-3 years), easyMobile will land on Telfort's network in the Netherlands thanks to Stelios' Danish partner TDC. Opening new routes gets simpler by the day for M-VNO airlines. When will the big companies go for their own discount carriers ? Austria's One just said YESSS! : an orgasmic brand for a rather non sexy service which could crash the same way as KLM's buzz. The sky isn't fully crowded yet but CWH's new M-VNO (SIM-Only) starts cleaning it with very aggressive international rates (Mobile World cards charge 7p per minute for Europe, 5p for the US, even if the national rates remain as Fresh as 15p).
The war is on and many will fall but one player just found the perfect niche : 100,000 loyal subs and a lovely £2.9bn contract with the Home Office... TETRA is eventually making it in the UK. O2's Airwave O2 service will protect and serve The Police Information Technology Organisation (PITO) and thus the policemen and women of the whole United Kingdom.
And while O2 expose their bobbies, Tele2's Tango expose boobies over the air in Luxemburg : they've been broadcasting free TV over 3G for almost a month now, following the launch of radio over 3G (Sunshine Radio Luxembourg). Tango TV (TTV) is available through the T.TVMobile wap portal (wap.ttv.lu) and of course hosts an erotic channel.
Over the air again, different vibes, different game : the same day Samsung Electronics introduced their 3D game phones with vibration capability (SPH-G1000 & SCH-G100), 3 UK launched over the air real-time multiplayer gaming services. The games are sold between £3 and 7.50 but can also be rent 25p per day or 50p for up to 3 days. Three hope it will be as successful as their football services. This could actually become Chelski and Hutch's year : Hutchison's 3G squad (3 + HTIL) reached 8M subs end of T1, adding 1.7M within the last 3 months.