Japan v. Japan - Artificial Belligerence v. Artificial Intelligence

In a Trumpian move, Shinzo ABE started a trade war with Korea, so far not reciprocated, except by South Korean netizens threatening to boycott Japanese products. Japan is not raising tariffs for Korean imports, but making Japanese exports to Korea more difficult for key tech components, particularly essential to chipmakers and display manufacturers*. 

Pressed by national media to explain such a masochistic move, the PM ended up saying that there was a risk these valuable technologies could end up in North Korea. Of course that's a ludicrous statement, since such trade between both Koreas would not only contravene international sanctions, but also defy logic considering the North's situation and priorities. 

The actual motive was officially to punish Seoul for insisting on reparations for Imperial Japan abuses, particularly regarding sexual slavery and forced labor**, abuses denied by ABE, his government, and the revisionist lobby Nippon Kaigi he was instrumental in founding during the nineties. This lobby that has all but taken control of Japan politics, while keeping the population in the dark regarding its highly controversial agenda (restoring State Shinto, the Imperial rule, denouncing peace treaties and human right laws, denying war crimes, rejecting postwar's peaceful constitution, returning to militarism, rewriting history textbooks...).

Today, MOON hosts LG's KOO Kwang-mo, Hyundai's CHUNG Eui-sun, and SK's CHEY Tae-won, to prepare a response that likely will pass by the WTO. Samsung's LEE Jae-yong and Lotte's SHIN Dong-bin couldn't attend since they are in Japan. A few days earlier, LEE invited his friend Masayoshi SON (Softbank) to meet President MOON Jae-in and major chaebol leaders. Even before ABE's bomb hit the ground, Samsung was expecting to lose half its profits in the second half of the year.

Korea Inc. and Japan Inc. united swiftly for good reasons. Playing a Huawei-style blame card against South Korea could backfire for Japan, and China could actually become the biggest winner. Giant tech companies on both sides of the... East Sea agree on one thing: this is the worst moment to fuel divisions between them. Regardless on how the trade war between China and the US ends, the fact is Korea and Japan are lagging behind in key technologies, particularly A.I., where scale matters.

So why would ABE take such risks? Is he still blinded by his obsession with revisionism, worried he could lose support from his base ahead of elections? Nationalism could be a welcome diversion when Japan pensioners panic about their financial future, but is it the right time to expose Nippon Kaigi's agenda, and what they are desperately trying to hide from the public?


mot-bile 2019

* fluorinated polyimides and resists (Japan produces 90% of the World's total), and hydrogen fluoride etching gas (70%). 
** South Korea's Supreme Court recently ruled that Japanese companies should compensate survivors.

Supercharging Whom ? Google to Acquire Motorola Mobility

"Our acquisition of Motorola will increase competition by strengthening Google's patent portfolio, which will enable us to better protect Android from anti-competitive threats from Microsoft, Apple and other companies." That's how Larry Page explains the twelve billion purchase in the official Google blog.

The blog is titled "Supercharging Android: Google to Acquire Motorola Mobility"*, but one could wonder who will be supercharged in the end. Third parties and endusers may start asking themselves what will come out of a landscape where former archrivals Microsoft and Nokia tie the knot, or where the mother of all netcos swallows a former giant manufacturer. SonyEricsson theoretically went even further on the value chain, but the union was celebrated in completely different times, when networks were not precisely clogged with mobile internet traffic.

More moves are expected. Apple has been rumored to be in a mega purchasing mood for quite awhile, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Samsung making something big. Lee Kun-hee just pointed out the necessity for the company to evolve, an evidence we recently repeated (see "Huawei Vision : a view from the cloud"). This should go beyond such acquisition as Grandis, a specialist in memory wolfed down earlier this month by the South Korean chaebol.

Anyway, the Motorola episode reassesses the importance of patents in the legal war raging worldwide. Apple claimed a few significant victories : a big chunk of Nortel patents, plus a suspension of Galaxy Tab 10.1 sales in key markets.

The problem is Apple is not John Grisham, an entity that makes money with legal stuff. Being the next NTP is not exactly "cool".

And the consumer is not likely to beg "supercharge me".

mot-bile 2011

* where the king of the 80s is kindly put at the same level as bankrupt Nortel : an empty shell with a collection of patents

Sprint fires Google Voice at AT&T - T-Mobile

It doesn't take an app anymore to use Google Voice on Sprint*.

It doesn't take an ape anymore to spot the 800 pound gorilla in the US wireless jungle : AT&T is having T-mobile for lunch, and the great silverback issues $ 39 bn in greenbacks and shares to pay the bill.

Putting both events at the same level seems unfair, but this is all about asymetric warfare. Sprint Nextel will probably tell this kind of story to the FCC.

Meanwhile, the VoIP app battle keeps raging between Google Voice, Tango, Viber, Skype, Fring, and scores of new players who don't have to plant antennas across the States.

Meanwhile, IRL, people try to survive a much more vital battle in Japan's most battered prefectures, where fixed broadband often proves to be the last link with the rest of mankind.

mot-bile 2011

* as the operator introduces Nexus S 4G, the netco stresses the software level ("Sprint integrates Google Voice") :

"Over time, we've worked to bring an integrated Google Voice experience to your mobile device by building mobile apps, introducing Google Voice Lite, and most recently Number Porting. But we felt that ultimately, the most simple solution would be to partner with carriers to seamlessly integrate Google Voice with your mobile phone.
Today, we’d like to share that we’ve teamed up with Sprint to do just that.
First, Sprint customers will be able to use their existing Sprint mobile number as their Google Voice number and have it ring multiple other phones simultaneously. So now, calls to your Sprint mobile number can easily be answered from your office or your home phone, or even your computer through Gmail. Calls from Gmail and text messages sent from google.com/voice will also display your Sprint number. This basically gives Sprint customers all the benefits of Google Voice without the need to change or port their number.
Alternatively, Google Voice users can choose to replace their Sprint number with their Google Voice number when placing calls or sending text messages from their Sprint handset. This feature works on all Sprint phones and gives Sprint users all the benefits of Google Voice without the need for an app.
In both cases, Google Voice replaces Sprint voicemail, giving Sprint customers transcribed voicemail messages available online and sent via email and/or text message. International calls made from Google Voice users’ Sprint phones will be connected by Google Voice at our very low rates, and Sprint customers will also have access to the rest of Google Voice’s features, like creating personalized voicemail greetings based on who’s calling, call recording, blocking unwanted callers and more."

15 Gigas of fame for metroPCS : Samsung Craft 4G LTE (SCH-R900)

Samsung confirmed today to Yonhap that metroPCS Wireless Inc., a CDMA player, would launch its SCH-R900 4G model (LTE with 3G CDMA) in the US. The gizmo had been announced by metroPCS last March, and approved by the FCC last month (leaks for geeks included).

At the OS level, Android remains a favorite.

At the network level, metroPCS has rolled out LTE on places where people love to show off : Las Vegas and Dallas.

At the pricing level, observers expect a $300 price tag, but even more interesting to see will be how aggressively this MNO, specialized in discount and prepaid, will price data. The Texas-based company operates on major US markets, and claims over 7 million subs.

Verizon Wireless & co won't let it enjoy TTM leadership for too long, and they will roll out more aggressively.

Until then, great opportunity to shine. How about Warholian 15 Gigas, the data equivalent to the 15 minutes of fame ?

mot-bile 2010

FCC : the end of regulation or the end of non-regulation ?

mot-bile 2010 - A regulator that fails to regulate may need some fixing.

After being awarded the right to deregulate broadband by a Supreme Court ruling in 2005 on the ground that it would not be a telecom service but an information service, the FCC allowed broadband subs to plug whatever hardware or software they pleased to their access, but after that ordered ISPs to fight against peer-to-peer abuses. Comcast logically sued and won the case at a federal court.

That same FCC has also been working on a much advertised National Broadband Plan which now appears to be left to its own devices.

The only way out of this farcical situation would be for lawmakers to restore some regulatory power, a move that could prove unpopular for partisans of freedom on the liberal front (no regulation for the internet : that's fascism) as well as on the libertarian side (no regulation whatsoever : that's socialism). If Obama thought he was done with ideological battles between health care madness and financial reforms, here's yet another hot potato to catch before mid-term elections.

iFad's deliberate marketing blur - Naver / Livedoor

With 700,000 units sold on launch day including pre-orders (according to Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray), iPad already found its spot on the market. Apple hypists fueled this early success, but other segments may follow, including technophobe seniors who are neither interested in computing nor in exotic web browsing.

Other players targeted this segment, but the Orange Hello and Orange Tabbee proposition, for instance, is clear a deterrent for hypists (see "Orange Hello, is it me you're looking for ?"). Why ? Because it is marketed around functionality-segment duos that mirror the very classic engineer-marketer binome.

The smartest thing about the iFad is the deliberate marketing blur : Apple refuses to build artificial segmentations and prefers to let the market decide, hoping the device will find more niches than initially thought. But the manufacturer pushes the concept with a clearly identified "software-level warranty" to help the hardware concept look more sustainable in the potential purchaser's mind : iPad v1.0 is not the best tablet*, just like iPod was not the best PMP or iPhone the best smartphone, but just like iTunes came from Apple computers to secure the launch of iPod, iPod music platform served as a base for the iPhone, and iPhone apps are paving the way for the iPad.

So if the iPad is not a category killer per se, it could help kill artificial categories, and tear down artificial walls.

Just one word about NHN / Naver, who would be about to snatch the Livedoor portal and its 30 M subs put on the market by LDH Corp (formerly Livedoor Holdings). It reminds me of the Daum / Lycos deal a long time ago. Korea gains an entry point in Japan the same way it did in the US : in a very traditional way. And I hope Naver has bigger plans than Daum. For instance, I wonder which role Naver, as it enters a new country using non-latine alphabet / characters, intends to play in the promising hosting business related to Internationalizing Domain Names in Applications (IDNA).

mot-bile 2010

* and certainly not the best ebook : too heavy, UI and screennot optimized for reading...

Broadband by Google "small dot" com : cloudy, with chances of bitballs

mot-bile 2010 - Over 190,000 individuals and 1,100 communities contributed to Google's request for information about its "experimental fiber network"*.

Of course, the aim of this RFI was to optimize the buzz, to impress the FCC, and to scare competitors : the only thing Big G keeps saying about its "Ultra high speed broadband" project is that it will reach 1 Gbps FTTH (don't expect Google Broadband to be con-TISPated**), and that the "experience" will involve between 50,000 and 500,000 customers (small figures for a boolean search, but half a million sounds like a Warren Beatty kind of testbed).

So instead of a network coverage map, Google delivered this splendid PR map where "each small dot represents a government response, and each large dot represents locations where more than 1,000 residents submitted a nomination" :



And "wherever we decide to build" is up to us guys.

Said guys are in Vegas (along with Google, of course) at the CTIA show, listening to T-mobile about 3G++, Verizon Wireless about LTE, and Sprint about "4G" WiMAX***. All making plans to prevent network overloads courtesy iPhone, Android et al.

Next thing you know your Ma and Pa CLEC / coop telco looks attractive again because Google needs a really rural testbed in Armpit, ND or any other "small dot" on their map to tell the FCC they're not only rolling out fiber in San Mateo or Houston.

Wheather forecasts ? Cloudy, with chances of bitballs.

* "Next steps for our experimental fiber network" (Official Google Blog 20100326). Note that the number of communities almost doubled between the 3/26/2010 10:00:00 AM post and its 3/26/2010 05:26:00 AM update.
** "Google TiSP - US Open at Flushing Windows"
*** "HTC EVO 4G : Sprinting to 4G... or rather 4G WiMAX/3G EV-DO Rev. A"

Wal-Mart's Vudu Trance - home entertainment and apps

mot-bile 2010 - What is exactly "home entertainment" according to Wal-Mart ? Everyday low prices for home movies or everyday more promotions for everything else on your TV screen ?

The Bentonville, AR giant acquired VUDU, Inc, an online video service embedded in broadband-ready TVs and Blu-ray players, and "combining VUDU's unique digital technology and service with Walmart's retail expertise and scale will provide customers with unprecedented access to home entertainment options as they migrate to a digital environment".*

But Wal-Mart also mentions VUDU Apps, a very crucial entry point in households for all sorts of services, including Twitter or Facebook, the kind of "web family names" we mentioned earlier as the hottest TV stars of the year (see "Skype on your TV : home improvement ?" - 20100106).

Wal-Mart was not the only bidder for this entry point : it won over direct rivals (Amazon & co), victims of Vudu curses (Blockbuster & co) media manufacturers turner entertainers (Sony & co), or the usual Redmond suspects (Micro and Soft).

Now back to the smaller screen, but still in the retailing arena : SK Telecom and Hana Bank eventually released their joint services** in Korea. Push and pull location-based marketing make sure you have always an incentive even if you came out without your paper coupons.

Note that in their latest TV ads, SKT are marketing Android a very cute way with a green robot dancing on "That's the way (uh uh uh uh) I like it", and that's likely to boost the brand's fun factor. The Android brand, I mean : the character bumps into SKT's dull "T" logo and roars at it... There was probably a smarter way of celebrating this encounter of the third kind.

* "Walmart Announces Acquisition of Digital Entertainment Provider, VUDU" (20100222)
** on this killer alliance, see "SK Telecom's Wild Hana Card" (20090612)

Meet Al Gore's Granddaddy

According to Carly Fiorina, McCain cannot run a company.

According to himself, McCain cannot even run a HP laptop.

But according to his aides, McCain invented the BlackBerry.

Meet Al Gore's Great Grand Dad : "his" Commerce Committee created the new US telecom landscape.

Before, US players used to rule the world. Now US operators are minor league players and techno giants who dominated the first generation of mobile communications let Europeans win the second and Asia the third.

The BlackBerry is a great technological and commercial success, though, but for... Canada (the Lords of the RIM, frequent visitors to this excuse for a site, are based in Waterloo, ON).

PS : according to me, John McCain cannot run a company, nor a laptop, but furthermore, he should run, period. Because he can't hide who he's running for.

CREDO mobile vs Karl Rove

"Did your mobile phone support Karl Rove... or does it fight to put him behind bars, where he belongs?"

That's CREDO mobile's sales pitch in the "Handcuffs for Karl Rove, a Handset for You" e-mail I received this morning, courtesy democrats.com (as a matter of fact and as my blogules readers already noticed, I'm not exactly Karl Rove's #1 fan).

CREDO mobile is a MVNO on Sprint's network. It joined last year CREDO Long Distance and other services (credit cards) in an effort that - according to owner Working Assets - has raised $60M since 1985 for noble causes.

1% of all charges will go to Planned Parenthood, Rainforest Action Network, Human Rights Watch, the ACLU, Greenpeace, Amnesty International, National Gay and Lesbian Task Force, Fair Vote, the Organic Farming Research Foundation, Wellstone Action!, Iraq War Wrong Way, Doctors Without Borders, Global Fund for Women, and McCain - Rice 2008 (well... I wouldn't bet a buck on that last one since allocations are made according to member polls).

"Join our existing members in sending over 80,000 letters and calls to Congress, the White House and corporate leaders each month", they say. Fine, but is there any other way of getting a rebate than including Dubya and Republican Representatives in my "Friends & Family" list ?

KT-NTT Venture Forum

Announced last May, the first KT-NTT Venture Forum took place yesterday in Palo Alto, CA.

What's in a name ? This is a forum, it features Venture issues, and is led by KT and NTT, the fixed counterparts to KTF and NTT DoCoMo, whose partnership has been already blooming for a while. The brand KT appears first in this new venture, but NTT is a much bigger player.

What's in a location ? Initially planned to host the premiere, Seoul will organize the next round this September. How "neutral" can the Sillicon Valley be ? Both NTT America, Inc. (nttamerica.com) and NTT DoCoMo USA, Inc. (docomo-usa.com) are based in NYC, while KT America's HQ are in L.A. (ktamerica.com). But Palo Alto is home to DoCoMo Communications Laboratories USA, Inc. (docomolabs-usa.com), and NTT serves customers in the US far beyond the national expat community (ie Verio).

What's in a program ? 12 start-ups showed up and off at the Four Seasons Hotel Silicon Valley. 76 avid investors (VCs, Qualcomm, Sony, Samsung, Cisco, Intel & co) attended speeches by CTOs CHOI Doo-wan and Noritaka UJI. Each operator came with staff from 15 BUs. This was obviously meant to go beyond name-card trading and to let the Sillicon Valley take notice : we may not be the new sheriff in town, but we are no small fish either. And we are willing to invest, to make new things happen.

A few days earlier, SK Telecom confirmed the sale of Helio to Virgin*. To go to Hollywood from Palo Alto, you do have to go South...

Both Korean heavyweights are intensifying the competition at home, where KT and KTF will unite and where SKT purchases his way into the home broadband market. The former PTT is becoming more customer oriented and considering bundles (broadband at home with Megapass, IPTV with MegaTV, VoIP with KT, broadband on the go with KT Wibro...).

On the mobile turf, there seems to be a cultural shift these days :

- KTF found its mojo and developped a taste for marketing entertainment**.
- SKT keeps the overall lead (50%+ market share), but seems to be losing some of its cool factor. It is lagging behind his rival in the WCDMA frenzy : 27.4% of the market have been converted at the end of June 2008 and despite a better month by SKT, KTF holds 51.1% of these 12.3M subs.

SHOW succeeded the old SKT way : massive advertising, devoted shops, an aura of fun and buzz. "T" did enjoy the same treatment but with a rather "Deutsche Telecom" flavor : somehow less fun and less buzz. Actually, this zero-affect-non-brand sounds too techno-oriented and not very sexy, while the Show brand is clearly a hit : just compare "show-time" with "T-time" and it jumps at your face.

The leader is putting all its weight on the new USIM-based solutions (that's "T" and "USIM", not a new brand) including contactless payments. The loyalty strategy lies at the core of mobility, in a tiny little fortress of technology, at the very moment the competitor is embracing a more pervasive kind of ambition.


* see "Helio lands on Virgin island" (20080509)
** ditto Voda : Vodafone Music Reporter is to rock and roll with MySpace

Helio lands on Virgin island

Brand with prepaid subs would seek added value services king with cool devices.

Virgin Mobile USA and fellow Sprint M-VNO Helio may tie the knot after SK Telecom failed to get Nextel for $5 bn (and cyworld to outperform MySpace).

A marketing wizzard, Korea's mobile leader is good at launching brands on the national market but building an international vehicle is a tremendous task. And investing in an ailing MNO on a huge / consolidating market would have been a waste of time and money.

Now SKT has both*, and it should focus on a relevant partner to give its platforms the global reach they deserve. And quick : Korea's new and US friendly president LEE Myung-bak just met with his new IT advisor : Bill Gates... Microsoft's dark period seems over in the country.

* even if it may lose after China Unicom sells its CDMA network to China Telecom - another blow abroad for SKT, which owns a little bit more than 6% of the MNO.

Back To Square Auctions

AT&T and Verizon trembling, Vodafone sweating, Cox, Cablevision Systems Corporation and EchoStar waiting, Qualcomm peeping, Google smiling... and the FCC counting the billions...

... Welcome to the 2008 700 MHz wireless spectrum. A few blocks up for grabs*, 214 potential bidders, and no winner will be known before the end of the whole process.

Some losers have already made the headlines, or rather the frontline of an obscure web page : "01.12.08 Frontline Wireless statement - Frontline Wireless is closed for business at this time. We have no further comment." Which means Frontline Wireless is already out of the race, and out of business without having ever been in.

This is a wild race and a wild world. We are talking wide and deep coverage : this spectrum will help go through large areas, through walls. The FCC even proposes a "Tribal Land bidding credit" for someone who would care for uncovered reserves. How generous from an organization that optimizes the chances of a 2000-2001 redux.

We're talking CLEC of the wireless kind, FMC and the whole shebang. We're talking about scared incumbents in the mobile as well as in the fixed areas.

Back then, T-Mobile would add a few rounds in the German auctions - totally unnecessary, except for the government. I guess they wish they had that money right now.

Chances are the biggest winners won't get one bit of spectrum at the end of the day.

Meanwhile, France is discounting the entry ticket for its fourth 3G license.


* 1,099 licenses overall - Block A : 176 EA (Economic Area) licenses - Block B : 734 CMA (Cellular Market Area) license - Block C : 12 REAG (Regional EA Grouping) - Block D : 1 national license for public / private partnership - Block C : 176 EA (minimum bidding price : USD 4.6 bn). The 698-806 MHz band was freed by TV broadcasters switching to DTV.

MVNO frenzy and extreme hangovers

Sprint welcomes another MVNO, and the utterly bankable KDDI Mobile brand has a crystal clear ambition : selling more Kyoceras in the US.
Meanwhile and closer to Japan, Google Phones are being made in Taiwan by HTC and cobranded by the MNO. The utterly bankable Google brand is definitely not meant to become a MVNO. Yet.
The so nineties Blyk concept is gathering an impressive pool of advertisers for its pan-European launch on Orange networks.
The so eighties Sonopia's DIY MVNO / MVNE concept is gathering an impressive media coverage. Get cool calling cards with your company's logo, grow as big as AT&T in less than two weeks... ego will sell this summer.
But the so Y2Ks WiFi - 3G PC Card concept doesn't sell : Helio Hybrid ends a partnership with Boingo going airbuso...
The MVNO primaries are definitely not over, but Amp'd clearly feels a Joementum - I don't have New Hampshire's figures (nor Canada's, for that matter), but this natural born winner is approaching the 200,000 subs mark (100,000 EOY 2006), with a 84% postpaid customer base (just slightly down from 89%), and ARPU remains strong at $100. Do you want the sign that says "purchase me right now" or the one that reads "wanted : Vegas wedding chapel" ?
Someone must clean this crowded place one way or the other, even the most extreme. Fortunately, ExtremeMob (extrememob.com) is not the mafia's MVNO but the result of a deal between Xebra Limited and Vodafone UK. This fall, Extreme Mobile Limited will target the X generation with all the Weapons of Mass Disruption of the Extreme Media Group (extrememediagroup.com) : Extreme Sports Channel, Ex Publishing, Extreme Entertainment (content), Ex Events, Extreme Retail and even Extreme Hotels, Extreme Parks, or Extronics. "ExtremeMob is more than just about extreme sports, it’s about being an integral part of the lifestyle of under 24’s". The handset shown in the press release goes with an extreme headset, and the said "under 24's" may go with an extreme hangover thanks to Xebra's Extreme Drinks.
ExtremeMob can claim the Pole position : Xebra was recently purchased by Centernet / NFI Midas.

Helio to hit 100k subs, and to be hit by Earthlink's 10K

According to Helio / Helio powered by SK Telecom, the Hollywood MVNO is "on the path to surpass 100,000 subscribers by early in the second quarter of 2007" (NB : 10 month after launch) and claims an "ARPU of over $100 per month", 25% of which from data services. The proof of concept for their device driven innovation strategy reads in some interesting figures :
- a WAP penetration of over 85%, an average 400 SMS per customer (merry Xmas - those were the stats for December 2006 so you won't get any data regarding the recent launch of Helio Music) - over 70% of Helio members use MySpace Mobile
- over 80% of Helio Drift members have downloaded GPS-enabled Google Maps™ for mobile and about 70% have downloaded Buddy Beacon


According to Earthlink's 10-K, Helio Inc as well as Helio LLC (the opco) are Delaware corporations. This isn't Tinsel Town and the balance sheets are not unleaded. Up to now, each partner has spent $214M in cash and non cash assets ($40M for Earthlink's 27,000 wireless subscribers transferred in 2005, along with equipments and other assets). Each partner will spend 6 more millions in August but beyond that, there is a big question mark.

One thing is sure : the company will keep losing money for a while. Big time, because this is cellular business and even for a M-VNO with a low CAPEX, S curves tend to develop fat bellies. FYI, 2006 revenues reached $46.58M with a full launch in July (68.7% service, 31.2% equipments and other) and accumulated deficit stood at $233.7M. Provided ARPU remains at the same high-usage-low-hanging-early-adopter level, 100,000 subs would mean $120M, and an average customer base of 150,000 over the year would barely match 2006 OPEX ($186.5M). Not only does EY have "substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern", but even a massive success of HELIO would only make things worse in the short term (acquisition costs).

SK Telecom and Earthlink own each 47.8% of the operation. Earthlink can't afford losing money at this pace for long, and SK Telecom could seize the opportunity to take a clearer lead. Or to bring in one ov'em "potential outside investors" (up to now, "outside investors" represented "approximately $8.0 million of funding").

At this stage and especially after the recent US-Korean FTA, I don't see SKT pulling the plug that early. Even with such a fierce competition, it wants HELIO to "achieve or maintain adequate market share or revenue or compete effectively". One one hand, we should see more "Helio powered by SK Telecom" (MySpace's exclusivity is over and the Cyworld brand could blossom beyond the platform). On the other, SKT won't wait 25 years to welcome HELIO's 3 millionth customer.

The fun is just about to start.

Year Of The Golden Pig - sorry, no golden geese

This toddler of a blog (established 2 years ago) wishes you a happy new year.
A few days in advance for the solar calendar and a few weeks for the lunar one, according to which 2007 happens to be the Year of the Golden Pig. People born in such a year being supposed to grow wealthy, you want to keep an eye on new ventures.
Yet, investors are worrying : 2007 looks like a financial terra incognita. Something's gotta give somewhere and somewhen but what, when and where ? Up or down ? East or West ? Not to mention Middle East ?
Did China delay its decision on 3G just to wait for a Year of the Golden Pig and give TD-SCDMA a good fat sheng fuishy boost ?
Does the year of a filthy animal mean even higher profits for mobile adult contents and mobile casinos ?
Do Vodafone's new ambitions in India mean the "I" in BRIC will experience a sudden concentration in telecoms... or does the rebranding of Bangalore into Bengaluru mean Indian players will at last claim the spot they deserve in the global markets, sidelining former colonial powers ?
Will big medias end up in manure or will they eventually understand M-VNOood may not be, for them at least, the best way into the US wireless market ?
Stay looney tuned.

Pandora's set top box

The F.C.C. ruled that municipalities had to take quick decisions (within 90 days) regarding video franchise agreements with telephone companies. Due to excessive delays, telcos often cannot compete with cablecos on their highly profitable turf (Comcast & Co charge an average $43 per month, 5% more than last year and double the rate of 10 years ago). And the battle reaches beyond services : rolling out a fiber optic network can be prevented on the ground that it can deliver television and video.
But Verizon & Co haven't won yet. Is the F.C.C. the relevant authority ? Is the American broadcasting ecosystem ready to open all gates at such a crossroads (convergence, DRM issues, free DIY n-to-n casting for everyone...) ?
We already know that USA doesn't mean United Spectrum of America, but things are not that easy in the fixed arena either, where Federal, State and local layers also pile up. We already know that US operators always finish last in the lobbying race : media / content groups are tough opponents and high tech players make sure the game remains open to all of their kind.
Ten to fifteen years ago, Europeans would dream of a US like market where local calls would be free and hundreds of TV channels available to almost everyone.
Nowadays, I guess many US players are envying their European counterparts. If they cannot even leverage on the scale of their own country / continent, they should be worrying about yet another set of competitors (Asia, Middle East, you name it).

888.com mobile and other crimes

You can draw but you can't hide. Poker and casino invaded our screens and not only in the late night hours, where other non glamorous but lucrative programs used to rule (porn, TV shopping...). People enjoy watching other unathletic nobodies become wealthy superheroes just like that, sitting at a table. Later, when they turn to dumb their online gaming automats, they believe each winning streak is due to their talent and each losing one to bad luck. Gibraltar-based virtual casinos can submerge all European medias with their greenbacks ; they know the ROI will be huge.
And this goes far beyond the Rock and your usual sin cities : if Macau SAR gladly returns to the colonial rule of the roulette, Tony Blair also wants to turn Brighton & Hove into Western Europe's Las Vegas. Never mind those medical reports on gambling addictions (nor the statistical reports : half a million French citizens hooked to online poker within a few months !). In the US, one can wonder if the theo-cons who recently managed to have some speakeasies banned are not themselves involved in legal joints. Religious fanatics actually served as a convenient cover-up for the main lobbyists : Sin City Inc.
France's most vocal moral safeguards happen to be the two public-controlled incumbents : La Francaise des Jeux (lotteries) and the PMU (horse racing). Both enjoy legal monopolies and mean to keep them. They can read Nielsen Netratings and they know that in the UK, The National Lottery only holds 35% of the sweepstakes sector, followed by a pack where William Hill (6.3%) and Ladbrokes (5.6%) seem about to be overwhelmed by the new tide (6.2% for Partygaming, 4% for Pacific Poker, 3.7% for Cyberslots...).
FdJeux sponsors a cycling team for a few million euros a year and just couldn't let newcomers massively sponsor most of the Ligue 1's pro soccer teams. The incument got Bwin's top executives arrested but also, and as a side effect of this rather mediatic event, the attention of Bruxelles. As a proof of its moral virtues, FdJeux just decided to start a campaign to sensibilize the public to the dangers of over-gaming... after decades of shameless aggressive marketing campaigns.
Meanwhile, 888.com Mobile was launched late last month. Anyone can download the program for free (but for the telecom- and, of course, the gambling part) and the company claims a 85% coverage of the European market because 340 devices are supposed to be compatible. The die is cast, "faites vos jeux, rien ne va plus".
US players crushed by the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, European players waiting for a clear legal framework... will Asia become the ultimate eldorado (even if the 2nd Mobile Gambling Summit Asia didn't bring any major disruptions) ?
MNOs want their share but fear for their image... They can do cute things* but big bucks may involve meeting with wiseguys and goodfellas, or even getting nasty. Dealing with timeslots backstage definitely looks simpler than dealing cards or managing slot machines for your customers.


* see "iPub by O2 - boozer friendly" (20060301)

MVNO commodities

In France, mass distribution eventually makes it into the MVNO arena* : after Auchan Mobile (by Auchan Telecom - auchantelecom.fr) on SFR, Carrefour Mobile (carrefourmobile.fr) picked up Orange.
If Auchan's Hyperlibre prepaid cards claim a fun and content factor, Carrefour delivers a much cheaper message : mobility metaphorically lies on the same shelves as eggs, mineral water or pasta, the equivalent of commodities in foods, basic products for which the World's #2 retailer holds an impressive market share.
Not as impressive as that of #1 Wal-Mart if it were to purchase Carrefour... but right now, WM has its own fishes to fry in the US (Movida - only 100,000 subs to date and 500,000 expected by the end of 2007) or in Germany, where even hard discounter Aldi* struggles.
A retail and / or financial know-how definitely makes sense for tomorrow's MVNOood (and Rabobank is considering its home market in the Netherlands), but it takes more to succeed than a strong brand or an expertise, be it in content (look at Disney struggle in the US and postpone its launch in the UK). A MVNO is a service provider and service should remain the major, even with a discount / content / mcommerce / mwhatever flavor. Pure players can succeed provided they can - well - provide and deliver the goods (ie TracFone - tracfone.com).
Consider Mobile ESPN's failure in the US : ESPN is a beautiful brand but only a one channel brand. Like TF1 Mobile, you like to have it on your mobile but you want all other channels as well. Quad players stand a better chance : Qwest Wireless makes a living, but US cablecos have yet to really enter the race (Comcast with T-Mobile again ?). In the UK, the NTL - Telewest - Virgin / NTV combo should deliver because Virgin being Virgin, Virgin Mobile refreshes the parts other MVNOs cannot reach.

Niche MVNOs keep blooming and ethnic MVNOs flourishing : MobiSud** targets Europe's Moroccan community, Ay Yildiz (ayyildiz.de) the Turkish diaspora and Red Pocket Mobile delivers 24/7 Mandarin and Cantonese service in the US. Others prefer to focus on the "international calls" dimension of the service across minorities, like Oblio Telecom's Bravo Cellular in the US or Ortel Mobile in Belgium (ortelmobile.be).
In a Marketing 101 frenzy, Firefly Mobile (fireflymobile.com) targets mobile kids, Xero Mobile (xeromobile.net) college teens***, Jitterbug by Greatcall (gojitterbug.com) seniors and technophobic Baby Boomers, and as the name suggests, GAYmobile (gaymobile.dk) doesn't target homophobes. No one dares launching a truly green mobile service but you can still subscribe to a feel-good provider : Call4care (call4care.nl), which federates all major NGOs including the Red Cross.
Yet, youth-oriented MVNOs remain the main variety.
And a demanding job. Ask Helio, which reached the audience it wanted, but not the kind of wallets it expected. The younger generations love the handsets but SKT and EarthLink would rather have them actually purchase the damn gizmos.
Amp'd Mobile isn't playing in the big leagues either with its 50,000 customers, even going on 150,000 by the end of the year. Yet, it goes international : Canada with TELUS (now a major shareholder) and Japan on KDDI (TTM march 2007). I don't think Amp'd impressive slugging average (a $100 ARPU) will remain that high when the saint subscribers go marchin' in, but Let's see if TELUS can be as efficient as Sprint Nextel with Boost Mobile (boostmobile.com).
To be continu'd.


* Virgin, FNAC or Darty happen to be retailers, but with a strong flavor / major.
* see "CAPEX and the city - curb your enthousiasm or six feet under" (20051205)
** see "MSN, Mobile Centric, Mobisud" (20061019)
*** if they really want to launch next January, they must first target deep pocketed and short sighted investors

GSM rules in the Americas

It was only a matter of time with the TDMA migration but GSM eventually reached the 50% mark in the Americas before the end of Q2 2006 (51%, up from 38% one year earlier).
The situation remains better in Latin America and the Caribbean (63%) than in North America, where CDMA gained 2.8M subs compared to 3.8M for GSM and 505k for iDEN last quarter : considering TDMA lost 1.6M, this means the CDMA family still outscored the GSM-TDMA squad 51% to 45% in net adds. Spectrum hassles keep preventing W-CDMA from entering the Kingdom of Qualcomm, where Sprint just launched the Novatel Wireless S720 Sprint Mobile Broadband Card ; not much of a name but an EV-DO Revision A device nonetheless.
The CDG is rejoicing but during the last five years, the CDMA roadmap has shrunk to a Data Only thing. I guess Doc Jacobs is working on a disruptive Voice over DO evolution... Reversal of fortune ?


And oh - Happy birthday to GSM (15 years), cdmaOne (10 years) and CDMA2000 (5 years).