Freebies in? Mojo out!

If you're a frequent flyer on these miserable errlines (believe me, I feel your pain), you've been prepared years ahead for Apple's and Samsung's troubles.

The Apple case is very simple: Cupertino lost the leadership in smartphones the day they decided not to open their platforms to other manufacturers. You can't beat manufacturers and users demographics, and the Android community was bound to catch up very quickly.

For Samsung, the "Nokia Syndrom" hits a leader that can't cover all bases when commoditization strikes. It's not how far you stretch in today's range of products, but how deep you stretch into tomorrow's value chains. Nokia kept churning out great stuff from its research centers, yet didn't convert them into innovations because the leadership forgot to focus on innovation itself. Samsung is very much aware of the need to extend its leadership into fields more sustainable than hardware design, but that's easier said than done (Bada? Tizen?). And as smartphones become commodities, it's getting harder to differentiate from Chinese or Indian players that can themselves sell massively and invest massively in research (Xiaomi, Micromax... Motorolax?).

If plummeting market shares are only sanctions from the market, giving away freebies remains the ultimate sign that a leader is losing its mojo. Significantly, the freebies that signaled the end of the race for innovation leadership came in the form of cash for shareholders (see "Apple - the end of the affair"). Samsung chose to bribe endusers instead, by giving away gifts across Southeast Asia markets (see "Samsung Localizes Southeast Asia Strategy" - WSJ 20140811). 

A quick fix before the next big hit. Maybe the Galaxy Note 4 next month, supposedly a LG G3 killer that could come in flat and curve versions, and preferably unbuzz the upcoming Apple iPhone 6.

But again*, we're talking Fall/Winter collections here, not game changers.

mot-bile 2014

* remember "Apple's Ready to Ware v. Fast-Fashion"?

2001 2011 2021 revolutions

The Nokia-Microsoft knot tying didn't quite come as a surprise - more the confirmation of a double failure, and the sign that times they have a-changed over the past decade.

Remember the time when both giants were competing for mobile data supremacy ? Well combined they still lead the smartphone OS barnum, but not as cultural leaders.

Ten years from now, we'll probably be laughing at the Apple-Google war - or rather at the Google-Facebook face off. Ten years ago, former webehemoth Yahoo! was licking his post-bubble wounds, toddler Google waiting for better times to consider its IPO, and Facebook was not even on its founders' brainwave maps (whoever said founders may be). Ten years ago, MNOs were trying to figure out how to recover from insane auctions for 3G spectrum.

2021 top duettists may not be born yet. Maybe Apple could be one of them. Not Apple the device manufacturer (still struggling with a sub-5% market share), but Apple the champion of cloud management services, and your favorite remote librarian.

But the next tide is coming. Take Southcentral Google, for instance : rumor has it they're considering a merger with fellow Baby Googles Southeastern Google and Northwestern Google. Announcements to be made in Seoul at the 5GLTE World Congress.

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In Google times, where are the operators ?

Google and Verizon Wireless will release several Android devices every year, starting with two in 2009 (courtesy HTC and Motorola), contributing to a global roaster of 18 gizmos for this OS.

Microsoft announced 30 Windows Mobile 6.5 devices by EOY 2009. It speaks volumes of Redmond's intentions to remain ahead of Apple in smartphones. Or to remain in smartphones altogether.

Ever the sexier BlackBerry announced the Storm of the century and new Curves.

Meanwhile, Kindle goes global : Amazon intends to become the worldwide cultural leader before Apple makes its splash in the ebook reader / app space.

We're talking platforms and OS but Amazon is into grocery, Google into advertising, Microsoft into healthcare (a cash cow for antivirus labs). BlackBerry ? A "manufactoperator" which somehow succeeded in opening itself without losing its consistency.

Nokia "pushes" Symbian as a Wikipedia style fundation, Palm "WebOS" as a more or less open platform (open as in up for grabs ?)... but the mojo seems to belong to the Open Handset Alliance, the movement supporting Android. Verizon Wireless is not even a member, and SonyEricsson could be jumping on board anytime soon, along with other nondescript manufacturers and operators.

The OS wars are not over. They're simply getting more boring. Differenciation will at last converge towards that forsaken player, the user.

Nokia Maemo 5 - Nokia RX-51

Paparazzi keep spamming the media with quasi official pictures of Carla-Nicolas romantic summer, or sneak peeks of Sylvio with Noemi, Patrizia, Maria, Claudia, Anna, Loretta, Rosetta, Carla (another one), Alessandra, Donatella, Paola...

Geeks prefered to browse* snapshots of Nokia RX-51, a.k.a. Nokia Maemo 5, a slim linux-based tablet that can take photos and probably call.

The Maemo community (maemo.org) claims 16,000 registered members and 700 projects. A far cry from Symbian, but Nokia is first of all into manufacturing phones that sell, and they are also working with Intel on oFono (ofono.org - open source telephony).


* ie on engadget : "Nokia RX-51 tablet captured in the wild"

Nokia's Ovi Store - a follower-leader

Embarrassingly too late, Nokia decided to open its online Ovi Store globally. Or to revive the buzz around it.

About two years ago, I had some doubts about OVI's ability to counter Microsoft ("OVI, a Door facing Windows"). But since then, it also left Apple snatch the bulk of a market it was supposed to rule (the App Store recently celebrated 1 billion downloads). The mobile phone leader definitely lost his mojo a couple of years ago.

Yeah... I know there's this coopetition between the Scandinavian King and MNOs, who prefer a hyper hype partner taking a bigger cut, but on a pie customers want to pay for.

Luckily for Nokia, there's always AT&T, ever the enthusiast for MVNOs and other pipe-fillers. For a Texan, anything coming from Finland must be cool.

S60 does have a cool factor, after all. 50M users can't be totally wrong. What if they decide to turn what they saved by not chosing iPhone into more apps ?

Windows of opportunity

Nokia merged their S40 and S60 platforms with Symbian, and their destiny with NTT DoCoMo and SonyEricsson in the open source race against Google and the Linux family. But the Symbian Foundation is not competing with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation ; it's only inviting people to stop throwing money out of the Windows, and to put Apple in the same (waste ?) basket. The aim is not to become the sexiest techno on the market, but to make sure the bulk of the value remains in familiar hands.

Which could be a moto for Qualcomm. The San Diego Chargers want to surf on ip.access' success in femtocells, and their strategy is to purchase the joint and collect the royalties. Business as usual, but will ip.access remain as popular ? Will Qualcomm succeed in closing the door to competitors or in motivating them to enter through the windows ?

Virgin Mobile USA decided to open wide both in a Totally Unlimited move : get all you can spit voice for $79.99 / mo, and add 10 bucks for a data combo. Some commuters may prefer working from home to spending a little bit less than a hundred a month for a little bit more than 20 gallons of oil.

Samsung SDI Co designs windows that generate solar power. This BIPV (Building Integrated PhotoVoltalic) technology could help Korean buildings become more energy efficient. Or Korean mobile phones to charge while catching a sun tan ? Uh. Not such a brilliant idea. My deduction is that induction will do this at a quicklier and safer pace (more "electric Wifi" demos are expected this August at the IFA / Internationale Funkausstellung in Berlin).

OVI - a door facing Windows

Another sign of global warming ? Penguins are spreading over new territories, and Linux becomes a major threat for Windows Mobile, already struggling against the leading OS Symbian.

And leading handset manufacturer Nokia recently created MOSH (MObilize and SHare), "a content sharing site where community members upload, distribute and manage content to be viewed and enjoyed on mobile devices".

In real life, Mosh happens to be "a type of dance characterized by audience members aggressively pushing or slamming into each other". The word also sounds like the French slang for "ugly".

All this could perfectly define the mobile arena right now.

Cornier than ever after the successful launch of iPhone in the US, Nokia delivers a new concept called OVI, supposed to give another chance to such failures as N-Gage and leverage from such charming initiatives as MOSH. No synergies with Twango yet, officially.

OVI means "eggs" in Latin but also "door" in Finnish. So NokNok's answer to Windows Mobile is the killer combo of a fragile door (OVI) and an ugly portal (MOSH).

I can wait to try it.

RockR's mTunes and the March of the Emperor

Steve Jobs had to pull out of his pocket a new and slender iPod Nano to compensate for Moto's RockR, the ugliest tribute to Meat Loaf one designer could dream of. To survive, iTunes needs much more Cingular moves.
More disruptive news for the industry came from Cellon : the manufacturer will use Trolltech's Qtopia Linux software on its triband GSM/GPRS C8000 series. Cellon may not be a giant and its partner may be a troll*, but that could prove to be the tip of the iceberg for our dearest penguin. The Chinese don't care about greenhouse effect gases but Cellon happens to be respected there, working for Siemens, Alcatel or Philips. And China happens to seek alternative solutions to Europe's Symbian or USA's Windows Mobile.
Yet, the March of the Emperor will require the involvement of a new kind of player between manufacturers and operators, more efficient than a simple OMA spinoff. Some kind of a mobile Red Hat with a safe but cool suite. Neither expensive nor sophisticated : you don't want to need air-con on your handset just to help your penguin survive.

* a troll with a powerful ring : index ventures supported MySQL and Skype

Bad Boys over the Finnish line

Who said the bubble and strass years are behind us ? CTIA Wireless 2005 welcomed a new kind of keynote speaker : Sean "P.Diddy" Combs, Chairman of Bad Boy Worldwide Entertainment Group. At the very moment another bad boy, WorldCom's Bernard Ebbers, was waiting for his sentence (85 years ? now that would be long distance, chum).
Another show, another miracle : at CeBIT 2005, Symbian announced their agreement with Microsoft (a license for Exchange Server ActiveSync protocol). After a key entry point for consumers (Windows Media Player, remember "the times they are a-changin" ?), the main gateway to the business targets (i.e. e-mail, calendar, addresses, files...). G-RIM prospects for BlackBerry, already threatened by new competitors signing operators by the dozen with their no-logo solutions (ie Visto) : Rest In Misery (BlackBury) or Resell It to Microsoft ?
But don't think Redmond has crossed the Fin(n)ish line yet. The momentum is on the likes of Samsung Electronic rather than Nokia, so Bill Gates had to listen to what President Hwang Chang-Gyu said at the second Samsung Mobile Solution Forum. Fortunately, the Korean maverick learned from Olilla's bravado and decided to declare war to... intel : you led the PC era, we will dominate the mobile age, and with a strong customer focus. In which case I strongly advise Samsung to adapt their speech to endusers. The six disruptive innovations announced to over 700 IT enablers in Taipeh would sound like a Star Trek dialect to the ears of John and Jane Smith : "1Gigabit mobile DRAM; a System-in-Package (SiP) that carries a 300MHz mobile CPU; a 1Gigabit (Gb) NAND Flash memory, a 256Megabit (Mb) mobile DRAM for mobile phones; a qVGA resolution, one-chip display driver IC (DDI); a 260K color DDI for active matrix organic light emitting diodes (AM OLED); and a 2.5-inch qVGA TFT-LCD for MP3 players". At this pace, they'll dominate the whole hyperspace before this small broadband world.

Mavericks and Spurs

Celebration day for Texas :
- From Irving, Exxon announce record profits for 2004 (about 19.5 bn euros)
- The San Antonio Spurs complete a 3 game winning streak and lead the Western Conference (the Dallas Mavericks a distant second in the Southwestern Division)
- Dubya celebrates the elections in Iraq... yeah, the guy was born in New Haven, CT and majored Binge Drinking 101 there (not to mention 102 at Harvard in Massachussets) but he damn well managed to catch the Texan brawl and some oily connexions in Midland
- and last but not least, Oedipus Rex in San Antonio : in the Bell family, ma AT&T falls in the arms of baby SBC
Well, the old lady has been massively losing some weight lately. In a rather indecent strip tease, she got rid of wireless, cable and even consumer services, barely keeping a brand and some debts. But still, imagine Word purchasing Microsoft 20 years from now. Or Symbian wolfing Nokia down (wish I held a monopoly, laments Jorna Ollila)...
When you consider the US pond, it looks like all the alligators are about to take a nap on their big bellies. Good opportunities for those who haven't feasted yet (Comcast ?), but the swift and hungry ones could also take a bite (SK-Earthlink ?).