Facebook Home, a Mobile - Virtual OS Operator?

Mark Zuckerberg, who's doing a pretty good job at following Bill Gates' footsteps, reinvented the blue screen with Facebook Home.

The meta-app (embedded in HTC First for proof of concept) basically puts your Android experience in the background - nevermind the mobile network operator, that fabled 2G hero. And Google already faced a win-back surge from manufacturers, Samsung leading the way with a suite of me-too apps on time for Galaxy S3*...

Even if only 5% of hardcore mobile Facebook users switch to this "Virtual OS Operator" Facebook Home, that's going to have a significant effect, including for key partners. For instance, Bing's performances will significantly improve in all fields: search engine, mapping, translation, value aggregation... remember how Google Maps caught up with Daum Map and Naver Map within months in Korea?

Feeling blue? Seeing red? No green robot around?

But of course, too much Facebook kills Facebook, and all attempts to control the user interface and customer experience have failed so far when the brand is too overwhelming (and Google was pretty good at hiding its brand on Android).

If hardware and OS become commodities, personal environments remain personal... or at least the main ruler remains smart enough to let endusers believe they do remain personal.

mot-bile 2013

* see "Anovations for Applelatres: Apple has lost its compass"

Amazon, Facebook Smartphones? Who cares for Nokia Siemens Networks?

The coming holiday season is strategic for tablet market shares, and that's one of the main reasons why Apple blocked the Samsung Galaxy Tabs in key countries. Cupertino lawyers didn't even try to stop Amazon's Kindle Fire in spite of its vague iPhone 1G design: this low cost gizmo is not a direct competitor, it contributes to democratize the tablet format, and by contrast enhances the coolness of iPad in places where Galaxy's not available.

If the commoditization of tablets will take more time than it did for smartphones, it won't take ages either. Apple obviously intends to milk the cow as long as it can, and to make sure it doesn't miss the next wave. Meanwhile, Samsung doesn't seem to make the most of its leadership in bigger screens because what Smart TV needs is a leader in value aggregation. Unless your TV remains a dumb screen and your smartbox grows wings.

Smartphones will keep getting smarter, but frankly I don't care if Facebook, Amazon, and the countless players rumored to work on them launch one or not.

I care for the 17,000 people kindly fired by Nokia Siemens Networks by the end of next year, a measure shamelessly presented as a "new strategy" ("Nokia Siemens Networks puts mobile broadband and services at the heart of its strategy; initiates restructuring to maintain long-term competitiveness and improve profitability").

Fair enough, networks have never been sexy in this sector. Except maybe when there were more base stations than mobile subscribers, and when handsets were bigger than Macintoshes. But NSN can sound as attractive as SNS, and if it really wants to put "services at the heart of its strategy", all it has to do is to rephrase its press release.

I'd suggest: "Introducing "Newstrategization", our latest killer app".

mot-bile 2011

Korea : Nexus One in June, more robust networks in sight

Korea Telecom announced Google's Nexus One (HTC on Android FroYo) for June 2010.

Since Samsung preempted the green android territory and even protected the brand for handsets*, KT will have to find a different angle.

June, World Cup, Frozen Yoghurt... expect something fresher for this smartphone / app phone. Patbingsu style.

KT claimed its 700,000th iPhone sold in May, and boosted wireless data traffic by 17.5 in Q1 2010 vs Q1 2009. Q2 should be much more impressive as smartphones rise on track with 5M units sold by EOY 2010.

And 3D TV is becoming a reality (also on time for the FIFA World Cup), 3D is bound to pop up on Korean mobile phones as soon as possible. It's a matter of pride for Samsung and LG, it's also a priority for local authorities who are planning the country for very very high speed broadband.

That's for 2013. But mobile network capacity will become critical much earlier, even with LTE, and Korea's dominant operators (SKT and KT) are intensifying their aggressive race for WiFi hotspots.

mot-bile 2010

* see "KT claims 500,000 iPhones"

HTC EVO 4G : Sprinting to 4G... or rather 4G WiMAX/3G EV-DO Rev. A

Sprint unveiled the HTC EVO 4G at CTIA : "America's first 4G phone" will be "Coming Summer 2010", and offer "3G/4G mobile hotspot capability-extend the power of the Now Network"*.

4G ?!? Don't expect LTE but simply 4G WiMAX combined with 3G EV-DO Rev. A. Yes, WiMAX got the 4G label**, just like DECT was 3G ITUwise.

But this HTC EVO is far from being a dud, dude. It also features :
- from Google : Android 2.1, Android Market (30,000 apps up to now), and among Google mobile services clearly advertised by Sprint : Google Talk and Google Voice.
- from HTC : a 4.3-inch screen ("with unique kickstand for easy media viewing", a connection "to your HDTV so you can watch HD movies" on a bigger screen), HTC Sense UI (with "social networking integration with Facebook, Twitter, Flickr and more"), 1,500 mAh Lithium battery, dual cameras (8 megapixel primary, 1.3 megapixel front-facing), proximity and motion sensors, digital compass, 1 GB ROM, 512 MB RAM
- from Qualcomm : 1 GHz Snapdragon processor
- from the air : Wi-Fi, GPS Navigation, Stereo Bluetooth, FM radio
- for the plug-ins : microSD Card slot, micro USB, 3.5 mm headset jack, HDMI output...
- from Sprint : Now Network, Sprint TV...

Yeah. The operator is not doing much beyond rolling out his 27-market WiMAX network and putting a sticker on the phone. The real PR winners here are HTC, Qualcomm (stuck to its proprietary 3G but associated to "4G"), and even more Google : Android starts outhyping iPhone, and Google mobile VoIP gets a front seat.

Hoping that Sprint's networks and HTC's batteries won't spoil the fun.

mot-bile 2010

* see now.sprint.com/evo
** as we saw earlier ("Aloha's long goodbye, Standards Wars Episode 4G and the phantom menace"), the ITU has been kind to WiMAX.

Google Phone At Hand. No Kindling.

mot-bile 2009 - Nexus One is all over the web. Unlocked, open, bare, the gPhone will probably be cheaper than an iPhone... MNO subsidies not included.

MNO subsidies ? As Big G eventually takes on Apple & co on their core business, it decides to redefine the whole handset ecosystem : direct sales, operator agnostic, Dell Computer style, without the intel inside jingle.

Imagine a small M-VNO proposing competitive rates for data. All of a sudden, a bunch of nerds subscribe for their brand new Nexus and bring the house down. Far-fetched ? 3% of iPhone users generate 40% of the data traffic on AT&T's network, to the point the operator confessed : "we've got to get to those customers and have them recognize that they need to change their patterns or have to face other things" (see "AT&T may penalize iPhone users who hog data"). In other words : be a good customer, but not too smart. or else... "face other things". Whatever that means. Maybe some big guy with a slight Italian accent will come with a baseball bat and redesign your knee caps, or upload a creative application on your face.

Nexus One makes a lot of people nervous. Some even consider lawsuits : if Google inaugurates itself the next version of Android, the newcomer may face charges of anticompetitive behavior, even if it only sells one device.

I'm looking forward to an interesting 2010 year : Apple facing full-fledged competition, Nokia going at Blackberry's throat... and Google releasing its Kindle.

Because that's basically the same story for Google and Amazon : beyond the device (the "Google outside", if you prefer), the aim is to understand the whole value chain and to secure future revenues in a field that's bound to represent a great chunk of the core business in a very near future.

The main difference : Google are not into distribution, IRL.

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep ?

Philip K. Dick wrote that story back in 1968. Google are launching the sequel tomorrow.

Dick was a visionary. Big G used to play that tune.

To tell you the truth, I don't care about the 2008 Android Dream.

Maybe T-Mobile's HTC will have a hipper IP than the iP. Maybe its UI will be "cuil". Maybe its future lies in feature. Maybe its apps will kill (Bill, Steve, Olli-Pekka...?). Who knows ? Who cares ?

Not me.

I told you : I don't care about the September 2008 Android Dream.

But I'm worried sick about the November 2008 Electric Sheep.

You know, the people who cast the wrong ballot, punch a card the wrong way, push the wrong button on a Diebold voting machine... my kind of nightmare, in a clam- sorry nutshell.

PS : Cathy, I saw the future of Google Mobile TV - screens are smaller than the zeppelins in "Blade Runner", but they too broadcast a lot ot Asian content !
;-)