Tomorrow won't be about Samsung v. Apple any more than the present is about Microsoft v. Nokia

Over the past weeks, Samsung buried the hatchet with Ericsson, before signing cross-license agreements with Google, and then Cisco, days after a similar deal between the last two (note that Google sold Motorola to Lenovo in almost the same breath, but this is not about hardware - Big G keeps the bulk of the patent portfolio).

Samsung and Google concluded in their press release ("Samsung and Google Sign Global Patent License Agreement" - 20140127) that "there is more to gain from cooperating than engaging in unnecessary patent disputes". A clear memo to Apple, and food for thought - and juries - ahead of the next bouts in court between Suwon and Cupertino.

"Samsung and Google are showing the rest of the industry that there is more to gain from cooperating than engaging in unnecessary patent disputes". Follow my eyes...

Again*, I'm not taking sides here. It's just that I'm interested in innovation dynamics, and that I don't like to see lawyers or finance people set the agenda in that field. Such partnerships don't put them out of the equation, but allow innovators to keep their eyes on the ball.

And key players to prepare for what comes next. 5G standardization, for instance, or the still open internet of things, domains where Google and Samsung don't want to become the Microsoft and Nokia of yesterday, leaders who were supposedly the best positioned for convergence and pervasive internet...

Samsung outqualcommed the Americans for 4G but now, the Korean needs to build a common platform with them and what's left of Europe before China Inc or other players try to claim their own time slot.

Tomorrow won't be about Samsung v. Apple any more than the present is about Microsoft v. Nokia

mot-bile 2014

* see "Apple - the end of the affair" or "Omnipatent v. Impatent"

Cisco Cius ? Put it on my Samsung Galaxy Tab

With its Android based Galaxy series, Samsung seems to have packaged a nice alternative to the iPhone / iPad duet. Or is it the whole industry that's growing tired of the Cupertino arrogance ?

Anyway, the Galaxy S is already selling very well in Korea (over 200,000 units within days) and overseas (the top 5 MNOs went for it, 100 worldwide), and NTT DoCoMo already announced the launch of Galaxy Tab in October 2010 (LG's tablet is still expected in Q4).

Meanwhile, Cisco gave a new shot at the business tablet concept : the Cisco Cius is expected H1 2011. Also based on Android, the Cius looks much smaller than the 7 Inch Galaxy Tab, and seems to focus on video calls : "HD video (720p) with Cisco TelePresence solution interoperability for lifelike video communication with the simplicity of a phone call"*... That, of course, is provided you're connected to a big pipe, say Wi-Fi for instance.

Funny how Wi-Fi coverage is getting popular again : MNOs are abandoning flat rates for data... and all hopes that LTE can support the boom in heavy mobile / nomadic usages.

Cisco also throws in EVO 4G, Bluetooth, USB, the last one a sure bet.

But I would rather bet on RIM than Cisco for a hit in business circles, even if the BlackBerry Tablet is supposed to rely on the Blackberry handset for connectivity. Actually, that major drawback for the enduser could prove an excellent argument for CIOs and CFOs.

Nevermind that geeky CEO.


mot-bile 2010

* other applications apabilities (see Cisco Cius website) :
• 802.11a/b/g/n Wi-Fi, 3G/4G data and Bluetooth 3.0 help employees stay connected on and off-campus
• Virtual desktop client enables highly secure access to cloud-based business applications
• Android operating system, with access Android marketplace applications
• Collaboration applications including Cisco Quad, Cisco Show and Share, WebEx, Presence, and IM
Tablet Highlights:
• 7” diagonal, high-resolution color screen with contact-based touch targets delivers an elegant, intuitive experience
• HD Soundstation supports Bluetooth and USB peripherals, 10/100/1000 wired connectivity and a handset option
• Detachable and serviceable 8-hour battery for a full day of work
• Highly secure remote connections with Cisco AnyConnect Security VPN Client
• HD audio with wideband support (tablet, HD Soundstation)

Cisco Takes Over Songdo

Last February*, Cisco and Incheon government signed a MOU for the new Songdo city within IFEZ (Incheon Free Economic Zone). And yesterday, John Chambers met with Korean President Lee Myung-bak, disclosing some details on Cisco's $ 2 bn investment : Songdo will host a major R&D center, but furthermore become a testbed for Cisco's convergent solutions.

From the beginning, the self-proclaimed "U City" / "Ubiquitous City" was to promote new technologies up to a bigbrotherian point, claiming the ultimate convergence, merging all private and professional databases, monitoring everything via CCTVs, RFId, and other tracking systems**... so Cisco seemed the perfect pervasive partner.

Lee Myung-bak appears to open the gates even wider towards the rest of the country, and one cannot help but think about how dramatically times have changed : not so long ago, Korea was doing its best to claim its technological independence from other US Inc. giants (Intel, Microsoft).

But even if Korea Inc. is also investing massively in R&D by itself (ie SK Telecom just announced a 18% hike for 2009 to KRW 1.3 tn / USD 1 bn), the country needs foreign investments more than ever, and Songdo International Business District (a POSCO-Gale International JV) undoubtedly needed some good news following recent defections most damaging to its international ambitions (a few foreign investors cancelling their plans, the international school folding...). Up to now, appartment sales have been a success because individuals speculated on a high ROI. But real estate is a tricky bet these days, and most foreigners prefer to wait and see : OK, this land claimed on the Yellow Sea will soon be directly connected to Incheon Airport***, and the plans look impressive, but you just don't decree the presence of international companies and people.

In the long run, this partnership could prove a turning point for Songdo.

Cisco is making a reasonable bet. Its R&D center will at least draw many companies from the local ecosystem, and with or without foreign newcomers, putting a lock on such an entry point is priceless.


* "Cisco and Incheon Metropolitan City to Open New Chapter in Globalisation" (20090219)
** Latest "innovation" in home networking ? Samsung connects your automatic vacuum cleaner to your mobile phone : you just invited a friend home for tonight or need to check if grandma's flat is OK ? Open your vacuum's eyes and set it in motion if needed.
*** The bridge is almost completed. Besides, Gyeonggi Province, which surrounds Seoul and connects the Capital to Incheon, chose also yesterday to unveil its projected lines for the GTX (Great Train Express), a new underground commuting system : Ilsan-Suseo (46.3 km), Uijongbu-Geumjeong (49.3),... and Songdo-Seoul (Cheongnyangni - 49.9 km).

Google too big to be true ? - discussion

(Following "Google's next moves" (20070518), answer to the question "So you think that they have gotten to the point where their size is getting in the way of innovation?")

Not that early. They are closer to Cisco circa Y2K than Microsoft right now. Besides, their DNA is supposed to protect them from the Redmond syndrom.
Yet, size does matter. Neither at the HR level nor at the geographical level (nice Mountain View over the valley), rather in the business focus area. Yahoo! did lose some focus at a certain point, Google may go too far the other way.
Google seem stronger and reached the stage where they cannot vanish overnight, but their model remains fragile, they are surrounded by big question marks, and their evolutivity is not guaranteed.
They grow a rather logical way, never going for real disruption nor actual pervasiveness, which makes them look titanic and overexposed to regulator radars considering their age. They are not competing with key customers, but they are turning into the web's Wal-Mart. It's difficult not to make business with them but you wish there were alternatives out there and would seize any opportunity to put some eggs in other baskets. Moreover, it will be difficult for them to switch to a different spot when needed.
So they are great predators, but I feel some unease as they grow. While analysts keep applauding each time they catch a nice prey, I remain cautious.

Google's next moves

(answer to the question "As the "Google-age" continues to unfold, what do you think their next move is in changing the universe?")

GOOGLE ARE NO MORE CHANGING THE UNIVERSE. THEIR AIM IS TO HAVE THE UNIVERSE NOT CHANGING WITHOUT THEM.
The bigger they get, the more it is difficult for them to anticipate next moves in their environment.
Thus, they must at least remain best followers in innovation.
A great capacity for evolutivity and integration is required. The star must become a galaxy without losing all constistence. Something like Cisco at the turn of the millenium.

3G & 4G - WiMAX flirts with ITU

Following the WiMAX Forum's whitepaper on "WiMAX and IMT-2000" (20070122), the ITU could consider mobile WiMAX as an official 3G technology. Along with W-CDMA and CDMA2000, but also EDGE or DECT.

And this time it could work, since major cellcos may not want to counterlobby the IEEE on that one. Arun Sarin recently warned fellow MNOs about the risk of letting WiMAX kill 3G but Vodafone may want to trade its nod with a permanent lock on its GSM spectrum. And cellcos don't want another battle for 4G licensing (beyond the colossal sums paid to governments, they have to cope with license fees from Qualcomm & Co, not to mention the complexity of technos overloaded with unnecessary specs). Even in the 3GSM world, WiMAX could be welcomed as a convenient cornerstone for 4G LTE (better have them with us than against us).

But the IT-telecom war ain't over till it's over, and I'm not sure European manufacturers will tolerate the gift to Cisco & Co that soon. In France, Orange, SFR and Bouygues won't let Iliad end up with 3G for Free that easily.

Unless you consider IT gave up the war and decided to join the telecom band. Not unlike Qualcomm's GSM1x, the large IEEE 802.16 family's latest avatars are advertised as the natural evolution of their main competitors (TDD inside, MBS combining DVB-H and 3GPP E-UTRA...). Even WiBro, that prodigal son, is welcomed back home. How cute... Charles Ingalls will have to cut a lot of wood for the party tonight.

IEEE 802.16m* evolution looks great, but so did 802.16n, with n the variable for the number of years before actual delivery. And this is not your own OFDMA out there, but "IP-OFDMA". Indeed, from WiFi to WiMAX and 3G, "Pervasive Computing" would completely claim the W-LAN - W-MAN - W-WAN spectrum, and fulfill its dream of stealing both seamlessness and security from the 3GSM DNA, locking a firmer than ever grip on the femtocell level, where a massive herd of wild devices roam not always peacefully.

Convergence ahead, at last ? Universal Mobile Telecommunication System ahead, at last ? Negociation ahead, for sure.


* "1Giga 4G" or rather 100 Mbps for mobile apps and 1 Gbps for fixed apps.

iPhone, you Zune - soon on Apple TV

Apple reached an agreement with Cisco on iPhone trademark issues on time for MacWorld and the CES.
Apple reached an agreement with Yahoo! on mobile searches and Google on mobile mapping.
Apple reached an agreement with Microsoft on the compatibility between iPhones and Mac / Windows.
Microsoft warned Apple : phones are a tricky business and even Redmond eggheads are struggling. Adding a keypad to your iPod won't solve everything. If it were the case, we would be launching our own Zune phone. And if we knew how to solve anything, we would even have launched a good Zune in the first place !
Apple TV is not so HD (720p instead of 1080p), not so high storage either (only 40G), not so multimedia (games ?), and definitely not so innovative... but anyway, the iPod itself is far from being the best Portable Multimedia Player around. And Apple is Apple.
Is it ?
Apple is no more about innovation but about hype. Apple is no more "Apple Computer" but "Apple Inc". Apple doesn't make computers anymore ; Apple sells Apple.
Sony also used to enjoy the sometimes too comfortable position of the "cool" brand.
Actually, Sony should be leading the multimedia convergence, being into computers, TVs, handsets, game consoles, and even entertainment. It unfortunately tackled convergence with hardware solutions (Memory Stick) while Apple focused on software (iTunes, iPhoto...).
Neither will dominate because either way, the industry doesn't like standards owned by only one of them.
Apple TV will certainly contribute to the democratization of enhanced home entertainment. And iPhones will sell, even at such a high price. But the more they do, the sooner iTunes will be forced to open up, and Apple itself to change business models.

Alcatel - Lucent : the swiftness of paper

5 years ago, Lucent would refuse a merger with Alcatel because it wasn't a merger of equals. I'm not sure it is this time either, but do Lucent shareholders have a choice ?
This non-event simply epitomizes the end of Ma Bell as we knew her. AT&T, the born again brand, seems to enjoy a new life from Plano, TX... but whatever happened to those prestigious labs ?
It's no more about the creativity of human beings, the ability to cope with new environments, to face the future. It's about the swiftness of paper, the ability to purchase evolutivity, to buy a few months.
Today's R&D does require a pervasive networking approach, but beyond the imperialistic / Cisco model. At the end of the day, you can waste a few months if you gain a beautiful mind.

A bridge on a bluetooth ?

Berlusconi's Mediaset* will fuel TIM's DVB-H service next year. That's about mobile TV.
M6 mobile signed their 100,000th customer 4 month after launch. That's about TV and mobility.
apple discovers video. That's about time.
Cisco & Nokia launched 3G-WiFi phones together, and the rumor had IT Cisco purchasing Telecom Nokia. Do they need to put a bridge on a blue tooth ?
RealMedia joined Netscape & co for a $700M tip. Microsoft didn't even have to open their warchest. How much for a Sony ?

* talking about mobile TVs : Le Lay plans to move Eurosport's headquarters to Milano. To spy Mediaset or to strengthen an Axis of Anvils ? Competition, beware.

IEEE 802.11number and number - I'm waiting for the LAN

Five year ago, IT players would seize the opportunity and boost 802.11b as telecom players were all popping 3G bubbles. Now that 3.5G & 4G are under way under a tighter control by their rivals (soon embedded in a Dell near you), wintel & co want to repeat their gig. Cisco & intel, Toshiba & Gateway... the newly formed EWC (Enhanced Wireless Consortium*) sounds like another boring alumni banquet. Sony & apple bring some color but they don't look very motivated. They just didn't want to miss the broadbandwagon...
Especially since it's about providing a more performant version of WiFi to satisFi more demanding needs (ie handling multiple HDTV streams). IEEE 802.11n means 600 Mbps, Space Time Block Coding (STBC), beamforming, a truly next gen LAN. Whoa.
And we were just getting used to 802.11a, 802.11b, 802.11b-Cor1, 802.11d, 802.11e, 802.11F, 802.11g, 802.11h, 802.11i, 802.11j, 802.11k, 802.11m, 802.11REV-ma, 802.11p, 802.11r, 802.11s, 802.11T, 802.11v, 802.11u, 802.11w, 802.11.1 and 802.11.2... not to mention 802.15 and PANs, 802.16 and MANs, WiMAX and WiBro (eight oh too)...
The success of WiFi was based on a quite simple scenario and quick decisions. Now IEEE's 802 Project could fuel a few X-Files seasons. Anyway, long life to Enhanced Wireless Complexity.

* The 27 initial EWC members : Airoha, Apple, Atheros, Azimuth, Broadcom, Buffalo, Cisco Systems, Conexant, D-Link, Gateway, Intel Corporation, Lenovo, Linksys, LitePoint, Marvell, Metalink, NETGEAR, Ralink, Realtek, SANYO, Sony, Symbol Technologies, Toshiba, USRobotics, WildPackets, Winbond, ZyDAS.

RFID - you're in the Army now

Korea and the US are simultaneously pushing RFID the way they're used to push new technologies. Amerika focuses on sekurity applikations, targetting crossborder hoppers, drug dealers, Kerry voters and other terrorists (in other words : federal and military spendings will as usual show the money and accelerate the private sector's ROI), while Korea plans to maintain its R&D edge in mobility, the MIC leveraging on ETRI's work to launch a Mobile RFID Forum and get some handsets ready by 2007. Up to now, the biggest RFID lobby was EPC Global Inc, EPC standing for Electronic Product Code because the killer app used to be "revolutionize the barcode". Unlike that old tag, RFID provides an ID for each item and can be read at a distance of a few meters without being directly beamed at - some kind of a short range GPS. Provided your system covers the right areas with the right techno and the right links to the right databases, this can be the ultimate "spyware / spywear" all experts in tracking (retailers, marketers, supply chain managers, security managers, customs officers...) have been dreaming of for ages. A quick look at EPC Global's board and you meet major league marketers (Gilette, P&G, Johnson & Johnson), retailers (Wal*Mart, METRO), and pervasive computing heralds (HP, Cisco)... plus the office of the Secretary of Defense (bekause this is Amerika and this is where frequencies meet wallets).
As usual, mobile players seem remote. Yet, RFID being about Radio Frequency IDentification, every player with some ambition in the wireless and/or customer control fields has been keeping an eye on the issue. Some vendors already claim so called "mobile RFID solutions" (ie the chip triggering applications in Nokia's Field Force Solution). The first MNOs which will come to it will have a strong marketing / commerce drive and a tradition of launching technos that are potentially "coopetitive" with theirs. Once again, you can bet a buck on Korea.