And Then There Were Three - Beyond Iliad's Odyssey

L'Express reported* that Xavier Niel (Iliad / Free) met with EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager, officially to check which crumbs could fall on his lap following the O2-3UK merger.

They probably talked a lot about another 4-to-3-player story, the purchase of Bouygues Telecom by Orange, which was collapsing at that very moment. Martin Bouygues precisely blamed Niel and Free for demanding too big a share of the Bouygtel pie expected to be splitted among Orange, Free, and SFR**.

Note that L'Express happens to belong to Altice and Patrick Drahi, who happens to own SFR, and, reportedly, to hate Niel's considerable guts ever since he took Michael Boukobza back from him. Note also that Drahi is making the news in both senses of the expression: his name appears in the Panama Papers, and that's unlikely to quiet the jitters about his burgeoning EUR 50 bn debt (for instance, to remain UK-wise, Drahi's Numericable paid a fortune to get the Premiere League rights for France, beating both Canal+ and BeIN Sport).

Now beyond Niel, Drahi, and Bouygues, who's France's key fourth player? France Telecom's Stephane Richard's not much of a divisive character.

Without naming names, Martin Bouygues mentions troubling positions from the government, and I wouldn't be surprised if there were conflict of interests between President Francois Hollande, who wants to run again in 2017, and his Minister Emmanuel Macron, who also nurtures plans for the presidential elections. 

There was a lot to gain politically from the new deal in the French mobile market, particularly since it involves key players in the media: Drahi bought L'Express-Roularta and BFMTV, Niel owns Le Monde, and Bouygues TF1 and LCI. And let's not forget Vincent Bollore: if his Vivendi sold SFR to Altice, he still calls most of the shots, and this time, he might not bet everything on Sarkozy...


mot-bile 2016

* "Angleterre: Xavier Niel a rencontré la commissaire européenne à la concurrence" (L'Express - 20160401)
** "Martin Bouygues : «Pourquoi je n'ai pas vendu Bouygues Telecom à Orange»" (Le Figaro - 20160403)

Bolloreal Politik

So Vivendi and SFR shall demerge, and Vincent Bollore replace Jean-Rene Fourtou at the helm of a group more centered on media and contents.

Officially, the idea is to raise the value of both entities by focusing each one on its core business, but demerging also paves the way for separation, and Vivendi presents a bride as pure as possible by keeping the telecom participations it failed to get rid of (Brazil's GVT and Poland's PTC). Maroc Telecom could be sold to Etisalat on time for June 2014 and the shareholders' meeting expected to confirm both the demerger and Bollore's triumph.

So long for Jean-Marie Messier's old dream of convergence? At least, that's the end of Fourtou's last hopes of controlling Bollore, a man who managed to take over with only 5% of the shares*, and who's not exactly known for centering on core businesses: Bollore Group is (among many other) into media, plastics, logistics, palm oil, real estate, electric cars and(!) coal.

This group badly needs a clear long term strategy, but if he's a bit more daring than Jean-Rene Fourtou, Vincent Bollore is not much of a visionary entrepreneur either. Arnaud de Puyfontaine has been drafted from Hearst to manage the core media and content activities, but can he inspire the group, and can the group handle the months ahead, very tricky at the financial and managerial levels? 

mot-bile 2013 

* his son Yannick led the sale of Bollore Media to Canal+ that brought the bulk of these shares. Now 33 and head of Havas (also a Bollore company), Yannick Bollore is married to a niece of Martin Bouygues, a key  rival of both Canal+ and SFR (TF1, Bouygues Telecom...). Note that President Nicolas Sarkozy, a known friend of Bouygues and Bollore, did his best to undermine Canal+ (a rather liberal channel), and even invited Qatar to launch beIN Sport in France (now 1.5 M subscribers thanks to its spectacular aggressiveness in sports rights)...

Mobile World Congress 2013: Unleash The Fox! Back To The Nineties!

In Barcelona, the hunt for the next killer app after Lionel Messi has started again, but for the moment, Mobile World Congress 2013 delivers at the hardware, OS, MNO levels. Vintage stuff.

Adding more flesh to its recent CES promises*, Mozilla decided to disclose** an impressive starting lineup for Firefox OS:

• devices? ZTE and Alcatel are there, LG's on board, Huawei will follow later this year
• apps? Facebook stars from day one
• cool factor? Mozilla unleashed its fox, and the long tail is now meant to set the whole sector on fire. Firefox OS joining Firefox Marketplace and Firefox fo Android, the predator is one search engine shy of splashing a Google-Android-Chrome-Killer tatoo across its chest. Even the Android dude got his tee:
  
• operators? check! This neither-Apple-nor-Google-nor-Microsoft OS comes as a blessing for MNOs that are desperately trying to recover their 2G mojo (see "joyn or die? forget about KakaoTalk and Anipang?"). Telefonica sums best the industry's mood by saluting "a major step to bring balance back to the telco sector", and America Movil is "committed to launch Firefox OS phones in Mexico and all possible markets during 2013". Completing the 17 member list are China Unicom, Deutsche Telekom, Etisalat, Hutchison Three Group, KDDI, KT, MegaFon, Qtel, SingTel, Smart, Sprint, Telecom Italia Group, Telenor, TMN, and VimpelCom.

Google must be preparing its own announcements, probably further down value chains and value galaxies (e.g. a music streaming service, according to the Financial Times). And meanwhile, execs reassert that virtual reality is the future of mobile... the occasion to re-mention Ingress game platforms, or augmented-reality-enabled eyewear Google Glass(es).

Just like Firefox OS, the Nokia 105 is meant for the masses: a cheap candybar handset with a late nineties look, and a tempting price tag (EUR 15). It's resistant, it consumes little power, and it would sound smart as a fox if Chinese manufacturers were not able to deliver the same kind of object at an even cheaper price. Nokia seems to be stuck in the 1990s, at a time when global marketshare in volumes was all that mattered. They'll get less press coverage for their Lumia 520 on Windows 8, but maybe that was the aim of the game: avoiding the comparison with Samsung on image.

Will the Samsung Galaxy S4 and Samsung Galaxy Note 3 live up to the hype? Until we get the answer, the Suwon-based giant keeps leveraging its subbrand: after Samsung Galaxy Camera, here's a Samsung Galaxy Note 8 tablet (Q2 2013), a supposed iPad mini killer. I can't wait to drive my Renault Samsung Galaxy LTE-Wibro Hybrid, to e-mail e-icecubes from my Samsung Galaxy Fridge, or to airkies these fancy apartment plans to my Samsung Galaxy Augmented Reality Printer.

Augmented reality sounds like material for pre-Lehman bubbles, something from the early Noughties. If you want something really ninetiesish, dig MasterCard's marketplace approach: MasterPass, a Visa's V.me-too.

Aah, the nineties... In 1996, after surviving 3 start-ups in 3 years, I joined for 7 years a French start-up that would become Cegetel and later SFR Cegetel. The shareholders were:
- Compagnie Generale des Eaux (44%), a French conglomerate recently converted to telecoms (SFR, partly held by a pure mobile player called Vodafone)
- Mannessmann (15%), a German conglomerate recently converted to telecoms (D2, Mannesmann Arcor, Omnitel...)
- British Telecom (26%), an international telecom institution that needed to set foot on new territories as deregulation reached further across its empire, and
- SBC (15%), the most ambitious of all Baby Bells

If you followed the turn-of-the-millenium sit(ele)com featuring the trio Klaus Esser - Chris Ghent - Jean-Marie Messier, plus Li Ka-shing as guest star, you already know what happened to each party.

SBC would resurrect Ma Bell and become the new and improved ATandT. British Telecom would remain a serious player and drop its MNO activities, but still enjoy its moments of fun (BT just purchased ESPN's operations in UK and Ireland). Mannesmann would bite the forbidden fruit Orange before being wolfed down by Vodafone. CGE would become Vivendi, spin off its formerly-core-but-still-cash-cow utility business, become Vivendi Universal, then Vivendi again. Vodafone would remain Vodafone, only bigger.

Today, Vivendi is getting rid of its formerly-core-but-still-cash-cow telecom operations in France (SFR, eyed by - among others - Ypso/Cinven/Carlyle), Brazil (GVT), and Morocco (Maroc Telecom). Canal+ shall become the new "core utility", the other gems being Universal Music Group, and Activision Blizzard, both leaders in sectors subject to profound changes.

Is virtual reality truly the future of mobile?


mot-bile 2013

* "I see through you: City of Sin, Screens, and Smartpagers"
** see "Mozilla Announces Global Expansion for Firefox OS"

Virgin Media Universal Music Unlimited

UGC certainly boosted movie theater frequentation in France with their unlimited movie service. Back then, preventing piracy was less the issue but somehow, it hooked a new generation to the going-out-for-a-movie experience... and broadcasters to the idea that the movie industry was still able to produce blockbusters.

This time, mother company Vivendi is more directly coping with illegal music download. The answer : legal but unlimited music download for Virgin Media customers (for GBP 10 to 15 per month according to Reuters).

The innovation in the concept comes from the pledge made by the ISP : Virgin will fight piracy and even suspend temporarily the lines of offenders.

The partners can expect positive peer pressure : UMG rivals to join the Virgin initiative, and Virgin competitors to follow the scheme.

A win-win proposition which could - at last - help legal streams become mainstream.

FT, Telia, Sonera - back to the nineties

Didier Lombard clearly prefers dealing with former CNET coopetitors rather than coping with entertainers or content providers, especially after the departure of Quillot for Lagardere Group.

The Telia-Sonera opportunity looks much prettier than Alitalia for Air France - KLM. Of course, Scandinavia is no more leading innovation in mobile as it did in the early nineties. And Nokia's favorite lab Sonera didn't survive the change of scale of the industry. And overall this deal doesn't look like a major disruption for FT which recently claimed such emerging markets as Africa were priorities.

Telia-Sonera will strengthten FT in Northern Europe and open new East Block opportunities. It's also an interesting entry point for Scandinavian silicon valleys, but FT already owns centers in the region, local start-ups don't need local MNOs to go international, and the Orange brand doesn't necessarily need Orange as a MNO. The fact is competition is much tougher in the Asia Pacific region where FT also owns R&D centers but no networks.

This deal would only make FT an even more powerful European and "tech / IT" player, retarding the overall evolution of its business model, whilst Orange World needs contents. Orange did invest a lot in digital rights and multiaccess contents in France, but the strategy demands a lot of money, especially when you intend to have a global reach.

Canal+ can made fun of this new "mini TPS" (deals with Warner and the French Soccer Federation), Orange is a small national competitor on its core business, but the Canal+ part of Orange is only a side dish for that major multiaccess multiservice provider.

Vivendi is feeling the heat and starting to leverage on Streamezzo, its JV with Vodafone : neuf cegetel (now back to SFR, another Streamezzo platform user) just launched everyworld.fr. As the name tells us, it is suppose to bring you a less monochromous world Orange World. There, you can hand pick your apps and follow them on any device. Which reminds me of BLOKKS and BRIKKS. A nice looking system where a friendly UI... but back then there was no broadband access on one end and no content on the other. Framfab Labs did that and guess what ? They were from Sweden... and the late nineties (definitely pre-9/11).

Next thing you know, Orange will get the exclusivity for Bjorn Borg's games.

Orange has its rights, Orange has it right

Two good points for Orange :

- a greater share of French soccer rights : beyond the mobile rights it already earned in the previous contest, VOD and saturday night games should prove great teasers for the other sides of its quad play offers. Orange Sports is likely to become a better known and respected brand.

- a strategical partnership with Samsung for satellite TV broadcasting (DTH, probably via Eutelsat's Hotbird, but not on a wire) : 1 to 1.5 million sets (PVR + HD tuner) are expected from the begining. UK, Poland and Spain could follow France.

If Canal+ secured its lion's share in both soccer rights and satellite accesses, Vivendi is definitely facing a much tougher challenger...

... and all three French MNOs are now enjoying a strong TV flavor to better face a potential new entrant on their core market (see "3G license part III - France's fourth wedding or a funeral ?"- 20070309).

Sideloading live concerts

Nokia claims that 75% of mobile music downloads are actually sideloaded via the PC. So while competitors launch "traditional" online stores (PlayNow for SonyEricsson), the Finns teamed up with Universal Music Group to offer "Come With Music" packages : a sexy name for a classic hardware + 12 month subscription package... except the service is unlimited music downloads, and the mobile operator is out of the loop.

Orange Music Store eventually tries to catch up with the Vodafone platform, but at the same moment SFR Live Concerts puts the bar one notch higher. Vivendi must have noticed that the business models of music majors are changing, that album / track sales go down while live events and merchandizing go up. Majors are trimming off their catalogues, renegociating contracts, competing with concert producers, and building participating platforms to scoot new talents across the web 2.0.

So Live Concerts makes sense. So did SK Telecom's Auditions 6 years ago...

VizaOzavi and other bull's eyes

What's in a name ? With zaOza*, Vivendi decided to drop 2 "vi"s at the edge of Vizzavi, and to add a bull's eye in the middle. Like : this time, I don't want to mess around but to go for the real thing ?... Maybe they purchased Activision to enhance their eyesight and optimize their chances to hit the said bull's eye.

Vodafone and Telefonica are into better targeting too : the Anglo-saxon leader and the Latino leader took a stake in Amobee Media Systems, a mobile advertising joint.

The Shoogle application must target Parkinson disease victims, blurring the frontier between handsets and handshakes. Next time you go to the pub, don't forget to fill her up with scotch.

SMobile Systems targets the soft spot of mobile linux : the first Android app is as sexy and useful as Norton. SecurityShield is the name, paving the way for developpers the game.

Elsewhere :

- NFC takes the tube - the London Underground before a greater coming out ?
- Outdoors, the OFCOM allows UK Broadband switch from TD-CDMA to WiMAX. If they can make it, that is. WiMAX seems to be losing ground in the US, where Verizon picks LTE.
- Korea keeps migrating at high speed : HSDPA claims 3.2 M subs end of Q3 2007 (2.02 for KTF). Users are discovering the beauty of (U)SIM cards and the easyness to drop a handset or an operator for another.
- Turned down by Sprint-Nextel (while KTF and DoCoMo snatched each 17% of U Mobile in Malaysia), SK Telecom takes 38.89% of Hanaro Telecom (including a 25% market share in fixed broadband). SKT discovers true convergence even later than Vodafone - and postpones a much needed boost in internationalization.


* the commercial name of "Vivendi Mobile Entertainment : Vizzavi's Second Life ? " (20070526)

Vivendi Mobile Entertainment : Vizzavi's Second Life ?

The epitome of early WAP failures for many, Vizzavi happened to be a very successful portal : it opened the gates of Universal for Vivendi and of Mannesmann for Vodafone. Never mind the few commoners using the service door during the JV's short life.
This time, Vivendi Mobile Entertainment* means non virtual business. A paid business model leveraging on the group's successful subscription-based business models : Canal+ and SFR claim 10 and 18M subs in France, Vivendi Games 6M worldwide just for War of Warcraft, and Universal Music does sell a few tunes here and there too.
Somehow, the new portal will compete with a couple of powerful partners, but that could prove easier than growing up in a family of brands with strong egos. Yet, this time it may work, and not only because of the commoditization of broadband : Vivendi seems ready to play it smart and sexy.
Each member of the family looks fitter, more confident, a leader in his own field, more concious of its own role than a couple of years ago, when all frontiers were blurred but convergence still a joke.
I wish Cedric Ponsot and his teams the best, and the time of their lives.


* I prefer the full version to this Vivendi ME reminiscent of Windows Y2K OS

MSN, Mobile Centric, Mobisud

In the latest Orange - Microsoft deal, France Telecom's DNA prevailed over Hans Snook's. France Telecom the incumbent and former monopoly, not France Telecom, the brilliant innovator and solutions provider, father of the CNET (now France Telecom R&D).
Competitors can worry now that two major predators team up in the convergence arena. They're meaning business, market share and furthermore, share of client.
Bouygues Telecom remains a Microsoft partner, but with a less exciting revenue sharing deal and a smaller pie to share. And don't count on i-mode for a long lasting differenciation. Convergence ? Sorry lads, rival SFR keeps an eye on your pal Neuf cegetel (as a strong minority shareholder and a friendly M-VNO host for Neuf Mobile) while building an ADSL offer on the ashes of Tele2 France.
"Mobile Centric" SFR also promotes its own SFR Messenger and a teletubby-sounding Happy Zone. Cute, but will this stop pervasive MSN and ubiquitous unik ?
In a cross continental move, Vivendi is building a telecommunity MVNO on SFR's network through another subsidiary, Maroc Telecom. MobiSud* will naturally serve France's strong Moroccan community as a start, but Telefonica should expect quite a few skirmishes accross the Mediterranean ring.

* dot fr or dot com ? Both have recently been locked, the latter by the adco JumpFrance.

A new Vodafone vis-a-vis Japan

Far from Jean-Marie Messier's extravaganza at Quai Branly celebrating the purchase of Mannesmann by Vodafone and that of Universal by Vivendi (and matter-of-factly the launch of Vizzavi), Arun Sarin and Masayoshi Son shook hands at a Tokyo hotel to celebrate the sale of Vodafone KK - to Softbank (and matter-of-factly the launch of a 11 bn yen and 50-50 JV between Vodafone and Softbank).
We're not witnessing the birth of the next Yahoo! : because Son has been holding Sunnyvale, CA in his heart and wallet for too long, but also because this JV is more about actual mortar than virtual clicks.
The Indo-Brit and the Korean-Japanese will cooperate on handsets (development and purchase), software (creation) and mobile content (creation and distribution). No farfetched branding this time - only a sober Softbank Mobile Corp to replace the doomed KK, and no hint regarding the future of Vodafone as a brand in the archipelago.

Bells ringing - Vivendeals ahead

Baby Bells grew up since Ma Bell died. AT&T Jr and Verizon should snatch BellSouth and Qwest, and three years from now max, they somehow will have built an international stronghold in the wireless area.
Vodafone will sell (Verizon, Vodafone KK), but also buy. As rumors revived, the French government released a report on potential targets from France's CAC40 companies. Among them, Vivendi Universal are enjoying their own headline news : the "Universal" part is dropped, and SFR's lifetime ad agency, Publicis, just snatched the France Telecom - Orange budget. Maurice Levy can split his teams but not his own self. The new budget can definitely mean bigger money, but the risk should be taken only if Levy is sure of getting the whole Orange (especially after a Wanadoo rebranding), and not so sure of keeping the SFR business away from Vodafone adcos.
Vivendi could sell their cash cow but if they want to fight as a European leader in broadcasting an increasing competition, the timing looks perfect.

CAPEX and the city - curb your enthousiasm or six feet under

Cheers : Vodafone had to release some exciting news to their shareholders ? Welcome to their global mobile TV service ! The content looks fine (top HBO series, the UEFA Champions League...), but we're talking 3G W-CDMA TV and this isn't likely to solve their capacity troubles : if you want to watch Sex And The City on your mobile phone, your operator needs to play Capex And The City first (or better : switch to DVB / DMB). Farrington Road Films understood so well how much work had to be done they named their m-soap "Brick' it". Who knows ? there are more 3G network operators in the UK than there were little pigs in the tale, and more than one could have a house made of stone.
Fewer fireworks for the launch of ALDI Talk ; the hard discounter doesn't care about 3G nor mobile TV yet : Medion mobile simply target 750,000 subs interested in the cheapest voice money can buy (5 cents a mn or a SMS among Aldi Talkers, but triple that if you want to reach anyone else). EPlus are supporting this MMinus, which could outperform USA's Movida despite the impressive Wal-Mart - Cisnero Group combo (it's the economy, stupid - who cares about services ?).
Remember Vivendi's Xfera ? The Spanish 3G greenfield MNO will as initially planned launch for the World Cup in June and draft 600,000 customers by the end of that year. Too bad our Don QuiXfera went for the 2006 World Cup windmill instead of the 2002 one. Hutchison Whampoa are considering taking over this X-file.

BeautifulPhones, cheesecakes, greenfees

A few weeks after BT's BT Fusion, neuf cegetel are trying their WiFi - GSM handsets, dubbed BeautifulPhone. That's about 10 years after cegetel* tried dual mode homezone DECT - GSM handsets, but the continuity of the multimedia / office spheres could succeed where voice only failed to sell.
Swisscom should sell too, or at least be fully open to strategic partnerships : Switzerland are abandoning their 66.1% share of the cheesecake. TDC / easymobile could grab more than a few crumbs of this jewel airline, but why would Vodafone turn their own cheese into a gruyere ?
Elsewhere in Europe, H3G Italia will broadcast DVB-H next year (H2) after taking over Channel 7 and their digital TV frequencies. The only truly pure greenfield 3G player eventually understood profits would come from 3G voice and mobile TV wasn't a 3G application.

* then the no-yet-born long distance subsidiary of the no-yet-born Vivendi, but already with SFR

Satellite of love

Tele2 eventually goes mobile in France on a bitter slice of Orange : the future is bright but the rates "retail minus"... even if they just recently broke Wind in Italy, France Telecom obviously don't give a fart about pleasing this once heavyweight telco.
Excuse my French but the closest thing to a media empire Kinnevik hold in France are a couple of local Metro editions and some radio or 3G TV broadcasts for their Luxembourg commuters (ie Tango.TV)... Nothing to be compared to NRJ, M6, TF1, TPS or Canal+, to name a few players that matter for France's MNOs.
Back in 2001, Bouygues Telecom used to be the laggard among the three but now that SFR & Vodafone Live! are acting as leaders in mobile multimedia, Orange tend to stick to #3 with a common minorange minority front : first on EDGE and now on DVB-H, where #3 brings Bouygues' #1 in free TV (TF1) and #2 in pay TV (TPS). To match this impressive crowd for their own DVB-H trials, SFR will partner with 3 born-again leaders : Canal+, Towercast and Nokia. And to make it spicier, Vivendi may even replay the Telecom Developpement episode with 9 Telecom, once again snatching away from Bouygues a promised bride.
The fun is just about to begin.