iLife '09 - no Jobs in sight

Steve Jobs uploaded "Hormone Imbalance" and some wonder whether it's a Wii Fit bug or the Apple Store's next killer application. Looking for clues ? SJ was not there to talk about iLife '09.

A new ultra flat TV screen for Samsung, a web enabled Broadband HDTV for LG (forget about browsing but you can enjoy VOD with Netflix Watch Instantly) : Korea Inc opened its IPTV services ahead of the 2009 CES and it shows. Or kinda.

China ignited its 3G cube revolution too late or at the best possible moment... on time to bail out TD-SCDMA and China Inc anyway. About 53% of Chinese citizens don't have a mobile phone and we'll keep an eye on market shares :
- TD-SCDMA goes to leader China Mobile (over 450M customers - about 70% MS). Chinese manufacturers will have to make an effort to make competitive TD-SCDMA handsets (commercial trials only started last April)
- China Unicom inherits W-CDMA - an interesting window of opportunity, too late ?
- to China Telecom the LG Telecom curse (a CDMA2000 license)

Expect some action in Europe too. Let us see who the true survivors are.

Pay-Buy Mobile - DoCoMo inside

KTF will pioneer GSMA's "Pay-Buy Mobile" initiative in Korea this summer, a couple of weeks after SK Telecom's launch of a service with Visa International (30,000 3G subscribers from April on).

PBM combines NFC (which should please Nokia) with SIM/Cards techno (which should please operators), and the initial casting of 14 operators from 3 continents looks strong : overall, AT&T; China Mobile; KALL; KTF; MCI; MTN; NTT DoCoMo; Rogers Wireless; Smart Communications; Telenor, TeliaSonera; Telecom Italia; Turkcell, and Vimpelcom claim 900 millions subs.

Yet, don't look for a SK Telecom, a Orange, a Telefonica or a Vodafone out there. The Sympay syndrom ? The fear NTT DoCoMo might steal the show and try to make PBM converge with its own initiatives (FeliCa and EDY through BitWallet) ?

Don't look for a bank either. At this stage.

What I do see though, is a transcontinental initiative with a GSMA label. And only a crosscontinental move could force a change in Europe, GSMA's birthplace. Up to now, a lobbying deadlock has been preventing operators and financial institutions from reaching an agreement and m-payment from progressing towards standardization. No-one wants to lose ground on one's home turf (mobility, financial services), and no-one wants a competitor to succeed (ie banks blocking deals between cellcos and more reactive players like Visa or Amex).

Should this G14 federate a few institutions across - say - Asia and North America, things may change. No financial institution will want to lose the face on that one for too long.

DoCoMo did put a few coins in AT&T and KTF. An expensive dime at a not always relevant time. We are about to know if they were just playing with one-armed bandits or really expecting some payback.

Far and Middle East predators

China Mobile recently had to deny rumors of bidding for MIC (Millicom International Cellular), the most exotic mobile arm of the late Jan Stenbeck, once a specialist in military mobile comms (you RACAL you).
More than a tactical weapon, MIC could even become a Weapon of Mass Differenciation for today's most ambitious cellcos. Etisalat (Emirates Telecommunications Corp) and China Mobile already fought for a slice of Pakistan Telecommunications Co last year, but MIC offers more than a few crumbs (10M clients across 16 markets totalling 390M people).
Millicom's "strategic review" started with a cleanup of participations and the purchase of minority shares. The "Up for sale" sign has not yet been painted but deep-pocketed purchasers already left fingerprints all over the place (the heavier the smearer). Beyond deep pockets are required patience, expertise in risk management and a knack for caligraphy (this may not look like your usual J or S curve).

At the count of 3, Hutch disappears and FOMA turns 20

3 added one million subs between Oct. 7 and Jan. 7, reaching a grand total of 11M : +10% over last quarter, the sales department can be proud... but how about the CFO ?
Hutchison Whampoa Limited are giving up the lead in Hutchison Telecom International Limited : Orascom Telecom* took 19.3% of it, leaving HWL right under 50% (49.8%). They may want to strenghten their wireless activity, they obviously don't want to consolidate it anymore.
Especially after HWL and HTIL secured (two weeks ago) a 5.1 bn rupee loan supposed to "enable the companies' two indirect non-wholly owned units, JayKay Finholding (India) Pvt Ltd and Usha Martin Telematics Ltd, to acquire shares to be issued by Hutchison Essar Ltd (HEL) pursuant to a rights issue"...
Now liberated from the Orange brand, Hutch Essar (formerly known as Hutchison Max) claim 10M subs and push their own new brand : "Hutch", symbolized by an ugly drooling dog. The name definitely has something to do with HWL, but the logo doesn't look 3ish at all. Furthermore, the color switched from orange to pink. Now whenever T-Mobile wants to make it into India, they'll have to tame this pet from HEL.
Vodafone badly wanted to make it into India and that made sense : Arun Sarin wasn't born in Helsinki, India is all the rage for investors worrying about a reverse Chinese syndrom, and Master Voda just loves winners (see how they dumped ManU for McLaren ?). So after wolfing Telsim down, Vodafone take another small slice of another big cake (after China Mobile, 10% of Bharti Tele-Ventures).
NTT DoCoMo with they could rule over China and India as well as they rule over Japan : they reached the 20M FOMA users mark right after reaching the 50M subscribers plateau. As expected, they will soon take over KDDI as the 3G leader at home : their 40% migration rate** should be compared to KDDI's 95%+ (nevermind Vodafone KK's 15%).
What wasn't expected from the beginning was the time it took them to catch up : they lost about 6 months to glitches that could have been avoided. And there, I'm not talking about the baby steps. Oh, by the way... did you notice how DoCoMo now claim they launched FOMA in October 2001 instead of May 2001 ? Another example of revisionism this side of the "Sea of Korea"...

* The Egyptian operator is growing ambitions : 14.5M subs 12/2004 end of 2004, 17,5M on March the 31st, 30M end of 2005. They keep advertising on CNN International, target 50M subs end of 2006 and should open new joints after Egypt (MobiNil), Algeria (Djezzy), Pakistan (Mobilink), Iraq (IraQna), Bangladesh (Banglalink), Tunisia (Tunisiana) and Zimbabwe (Telecel Zimbabwe).
** Also : 45.4M i-mode subs (90% of all customers) of which 32.5M have i-appli enabled kentais (70% of i-mode customers).