The PTT of VoIP turns 10 - No-hype Skype and the other Steve

Skype has turned 10, but where's the hype?

Skype has replaced Windows Live Messenger, but where's the innovation?

Skype has been commoditized, ebayed, microsofted, ballmerized.

The success story has turned into a stupid cash cow, as boring as Windows.

The Estonian start-up into a global PTT of VoIP challenged by smarter, faster players.

At least Steve Ballmer is at long last about to launch a massive product out of Microsoft's comfort zone: himself.

mot-bile 2013

Paul Allen v. Rest Of The Web : NTP Redux ?

Paul Allen's Interval Licensing is suing a few Microsoft foes : AOL, Apple, eBay, Facebook, Google, Netflix, Office Depot, OfficeMax, Staples, Yahoo, YouTube.

The charges : patent infringement regarding 4 patents owned by Interval Licensing - as the name suggests, an empty shell meant to make as many bucks as possible out of
Interval Research "creations".

In this case, the patents protect : a "Browser (...) With Particular Application to Browsing Information Represented By Audiovisual Data", an "Attention Manager", and a system to "Alert(...) Users to Items of Current Interest".

Now this episode definitely became an "item of current interest" in a sector still shaken by the NTP/RIM battle over patents.

What puzzles me is to see Paul Allen, who only left the board of Microsoft in 2000, claim a leadership in browsers : Microsoft copied all major user interface disruptions from Apple, starting with the "windows" concept, and the company didn't believe in the internet, joining the bandwagon very late, starting the Internet Explorer project two years after Mosaic was created. Why not sue Mosaic then ? And IE for exploiting it ?

You may win your lawsuit, just like NTP did. But do you want to go down in history for that last caricature of Microsoftian Evilness ?

You'd better stick to rock'n roll, Paulie.

mot-bile 2010

eCommerce revolution in Korea: online sales become the first distribution channel

When I first came to Korea 20 years ago, Department Stores were becoming the main distribution channel for many consumer goods, taking over traditional door-to-door sales.

Convenience stores (FamilyMart, LG25 - now GS25 -, BuyTheWay, 7Eleven...) were also gaining ground. Then came the hypermarkets (eMart, Carrefour at one moment, Samsung / Tesco HomePlus, Lotte Mart...), and the SSMs / SuperSuperMarkets (Lotte mySuper, HomePlus Express, eMart Everyday...).

One by one, small groceries / mom & pop stores closed, and traditional markets plummeted, killed by discount shopping (or supposedly "discount" shopping : a recent survey pointed out that for many food items, traditional markets are actually cheaper). Survivors could count on one system that protected both food majors and small distributors : product packaging including the price tag regardless of the sales channel, which guaranteed the same price for such basic items as instant noodles or ice creams. But this system is about to be abandoned and anyway, it didn't mean much anymore : big discount sell their own brands of instant noodles, and my local SSM offers a year-round 50% discount on all ice creams.

Even as competition raged between discount shops, many opening 24/7/365, Department Stores (Lotte DS, Shinsegae DS, Hyundai DS, Galleria DS...), sometimes growing into ambitious complexes (ie Shinsegae Centum City in Busan) remained ahead for many consumer goods and fashion.

Until now : online sales have just become Korea's first distribution channel.

This doesn't come as a surprise for anyone living in "ubiquitous" Korea : beyond pure players (ie Auction), even brick and mortar leaders are pushing ecommerce very hard, prefering cannibalization to the loss of a customer.

Somehow, we're back to square one and door-to-door sales. The first door is your mobile, PC or TV screen, but everything is done to deliver it wherever you live (home deliveries keep booming), wherever you work (Seoul would collapse without cheap express deliveries), and even wherever you go (ie location based services and mobile couponing).

Like for ADSL or FTTH, Korea's economy of access is unbeatable. Because of urban density, because major players are ready to offer what comes as a premium anywhere else, and furthermore because in many cases for smaller fish, the last mile is provided by people working under the legal hourly wage, ready to make a buck even if it doesn't make any sense if you simply take into account transportation costs. When you see a truck carrying about five hundred eggs on a highway, you know something is wrong. And when you order a book online, the delivery person is rarely twice the same plain-clothes individual.

I guess that's one of the reasons why Amazon is not in Korea. The retailer tried to do some business via Samsung / SIMS more than ten years ago but failed. So Amazon ships from other countries to international customers while Kim & Chang law firm securely protects Amazon.co.kr URL.

Of course, Amazon would face pure players in cultural goods, such as Aladdin (now Aladin.co.kr), or Kyobo Book Center (very ambitious in the ebook ecosystem), but I don't think it's about competition : players differenciating themselves on logistic platforms tend to struggle here. Carrefour left the country in spite of commercial success for regulatory reasons : it couldn't operate with its usual purchasing power model. I think the logistics equation could be very tricky for Amazon.

eBay is faring much better in Korea (as Auction.co.kr) - it even wolfed down G-market, snatching it away from Inter Park... but eBay more into auctions and C2C than into retailing and B2C. And when it advertised massively on internet shopping, big retailers pushed the pedal to the metal.

But the biggest revolution for e-commerce in Korea this year is the end of Microsoft Explorer's de facto monopoly since July 1st : since 1999, all online shopping and banking services had to use ActiveX systems, but the Financial Services Commission put an end to it following the recent boom in smartphones.

mot-bile 2010 - see also my original post on Seoul Village

Skype on your TV : home improvement ?

mot-bile 2010 - Skype stole part of the Google show : if the Nexus One was already yesterday's news*, Skype is tomorrow's.

Because coming up this spring, Panasonic and LG internet-connected HDTVs will have Skype inside**.

OK. We're not talking major innovation there. Only smart bundling. And for the moment, it's either Skype or TV, so forget about chatting while watching a program, for instance a soccer game (heard the news ? there's a World Cup this year). But it should help videophony get a boost, and internet TV become as mainstream as it should be.

Next thing you know, some may reconsider using at home that other always on screen of theirs, a much more personal yet smaller and costlier one.

Former Skype owners eBay were left at the gate, but I'm sure they - among others - would love to take a shot at home shopping networks. Anyway, expect in a very near future more familiar logos sticked on every internet HDTV.

* see "Google Phone at hand, no kindling".

ADDENDUM 20100105 : on the official Google blog, Mario Queiroz, VP of Product Management
developped "Our new approach to buying a mobile phone" (or rather "superphones")
"through a new, simple online web store from Google".

** see Skype video on "Get Skype on your TV" (Skype - 20100105)

Gmarket vs Skype and Stumbleupon - e-business as usual for eBay

Losing ground at home vs Amazon, eBay decides to build a new fortress in Korea, combining over two thirds of Gmarket with its Internet Auction Company there. Almost gone the Skype hype, fumbled Stumbleupon... back to core business.

Inter Park, distant third behind Gmarket and IAC (8% vs 47% and 34%) owned 34% of Gmarket, which will operate separately from IAC. Besides, Korean authorities may ask some further concessions, but they already okayed the deal.

Beyond national marketing, technological, and logistical synergies, eBay intends to build an international platform from this new local giant in the long term. Nice way of putting things for a rather defensive move : Korea will neither open the gates to Japan, nor take over eBay's operations in China and Taiwan. Maybe strengthen some positions around LA and Orange counties.

The deal will be completed by the end of H1 2009, Skype will be IPOed H1 2010, eBay will keep non-technological bubbly start ups at bay until the recession itself recedes.

* "eBay to Expand Asian Operations Through Combination with Gmarket, Korea's Largest Online Marketplace" (eBay - 20090416)

Android Paranoid takes a LiMo

First step towards "commercially deployed" Android handsets (H2 2008), The Android Software Development Kit (SDK) is to be revealed tomorrow by the Open Handset Alliance, a Linux based initiative involving Google and 29 more or less famous members : When you open a handset, what will you see then ?

1) 2 charismatic netcos not used to this kind of initiatives : eBay and Google.

2) 4 manufacturers : struggling Motorola*, swift HTC (used to paving the way for new OS sponsored by wealthy players), and the usual Korean duet LG* and Samsung* (putting eggs in any basket popping up anywhere - the question is which one joined first to get the other one moving). Moto, LG and Sam were members of the LiMo Foundation, but so were NEC and Panasonic, not to mention Ericsson (without the Sony part).

3) 7 operators : NTT DoCoMo*, China Mobile, T-Mobile, KDDI, Sprint Nextel, Telecom Italia and Telefonica. That's an impressive crew and customer base, but these people are not always used to working together. And a most eminent Founding Member of LiMo didn't climb on board of that one ; Vodafone clinched a different kind of deal earlier with Google (KTF and Softbank also passed that move, but DoCoMo also speaks for the former and the latter prefers a Disney mouse than a Linux pinguin these days). France Telecom snubbed both initiatives.

4) a flock of enablers : Qualcomm*, Broadcom*, intel, TI Audience, Marvell, NVIDIA, SiRF, Synaptics, PacketVideo, Esmertec, Ascender, LivingImage, NMS Communications, Nuance Communications, SkyPop, SONiVOX, Aplix Corporation*, Noser Engineering, TAT - The Astonishing Tribe AB, Wind River*.

5) a pinguin, which didn't need all this mess to exist.

6) a new "tech" label or brand : Android.

What's in a name ? An android is a robot made to resemble a human being, and should respect Asimov's 3 Laws of Robotics :
- A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
- A robot must obey orders given to it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
- A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.

Android is not a cute name. It's rather scary than sexy. But it's real. Not just hype. Something you build to achieve tasks. Say - you want to get some burdens off the shoulders of i-mode developpers, for instance. Say - you think Orangeworld and Vodafone Live are sexy and you want to make them look corny or obsolete.

So you bring two big names from the web. But these are also enablers facing tough competitors. Will the whole ecosystem follow ?


* these members of The Open Handset Alliance (openhandsetalliance.com) are also Foundation Members of The LiMo Foundation (see "LiMo - stretching Linux Mobile" - 20070223).

3GSM 2007 - A brave new World ? A new and improved Vodafone ?

This week, Vodafone decided to send a few messages to the market :
- Purchase of Hutchison Essar ($11.7bn for a 67% controlling stake... provided Essar doesn't launch a counterattack tainted with economic patriotism*) : I intend to remain in the World's top 3 operators for subscribers and I'm gonna post exciting growth rates for the years to come. Certainly not for ARPU but I'm investing for the long term. And by the way : I'm still able to invest for higher purposes than the loyalty of my shareholders.
- Another deal with Orange on 3G network sharing : I prefer to invest on CAPEX in India where it will make a difference. I'm bracing for a fiercer competition in mature markets, where I will focus on service.
- An impressive collection of old and new partnerships with almost all major web players (Google for mapping, Yahoo! and Microsoft for IM, YouTube, eBay, MySpace...) : you think these newcomers are smarter and swifter, and you believe they will get the bulk of the value but look ! everybody wants to work with me and I'm certainly not begging for partners. They know who's ruling the game and you don't want to miss this train or else...

At last the big red machine decides to move. But I cannot see much disruption out there. It actually looks like their last smart move in Turkey, only at a bigger scale. I'd like to have more movements in the home / office spheres. Beyond WCDMA900, that is (Nokia providing UMTS900 for SFR after Portugal and Finland). To be continued...

Otherwise, 2007 doesn't look like a year for new paradygms :
- Qualcomm still wants to be the King of the Universe, but its Universal Broadcast Modem (UBM) combines MediaFLO technology, DVB-H and 1seg / ISDB-T without caring much for DMB... a slap on the wrist for those naughty koreans who want to kick it out of their country.
- Quadplays are getting mainstream. The Virgin-NTL combo, Virgin Media, charges £20 for 2, £30 for 3 and £40 for the first no-frills quads (the 125 pound gorilla offers unlimited calls in the fixed arena and 500 mn of mobile babbling plus a monthly data package including £60 in airtime and 1,000 SMS, along with the hardware - handset and PVR). Virgin Mobile will also strengthten its controlled distribution.
- Either terrified by Viviane Reding or cornered by an ever tougher competition, O2 extends My Europe to 31 countries. For £10 per month or £60 per year, business subscribers to My Europe Extra won't be charged for incoming calls whatever the network on which they are roaming. Intraeuropean calls will cost 25p per mn flat.

That could be the best news for 2007 (but for MNO shareholders) : the landline / mobile gap in calling rates is bound to decrease even before VoIP gets fully mobile. The competition goes beyond mobility and furthermore, from the customer's point of view, that's the minimum you could expect from convergence in a broadband world.


* Voda downsizes its participation in Bharti but still keeps a few toes in the venture.

Skype Web TV - Life is a Venice beach

"The best of the Internet with the best of TV" ? Here's The Venice Project by Janus Friis and Niklas Zennstrom*. Maybe the founders of Skype were jalous of MySpace and YouTube. Maybe they think they could have asked more from eBay.
If they want to outscore these video whiz kids, I'm afraid they'll have to offer the worst of the internet with the worst of TV... in which case they'd better rename it The Santa Barbara Project.
Unsurprisingly enough, the techno relies on peer-to-peer and the founders are not worrying about DRM issues. They can talk about advertising revenues but they can't fool us. Their customer is not the end-user anymore. They understood the customer is really king when he means business and offers big bucks. Especially when he knows how to negociate with major broadcasters and editors. Heck, he could even be one ov'em.
For those who missed the previous platforms, please take your ticket.

* "according to FT.com : Skype founders to offer web TV" (20061217)

Being intelligent - on your to do list

Seoul Digital Forum 2006 - World ICT Summit starts next week in Seoul. Steve Balmer, Paul E. Jacobs and a few others* will chat more pervasively than evasively about digital intelligence around the topic ''Being Intelligent: The Next Digital Revolution. Smart Devices, Robotics and the Future''.

Actually, even to survivors of the internet bubble, "being intelligent" seems a major shift.
Not as glamorous as it sounds, yet. Because "being intelligent" is more and more about thinking as and designing for dummies. Since "Digital Intelligence" failed to be intelligible, since our own emerging mobile markets include elderlies and technophobes, handset manufacturers started competing on dumbphones as well as on smartphones.

Note that dumbphones are not meant for dumb people ; they're made by dumb people who thought they were smart. They put "intelligence in the device" and "intelligence in the network" but were outsmarted by consumers who either made hits of the applications they didn't believe in (SMS) or flops of applications they considered as killers (sorry, I don't have enough space to list them).

So the next revolution means let's get rid of that smartass, let's make the human as irrelevant and transparent as possible, let's talk real business, machine to machine. No more mistakes ? Not so sure : to err is human, but to RFID is devilish.

"Being intelligent" was "being eBay" ; anyone selling anything to anyone anytime. "Being intelligent" may turn out to become "being Woot!" ; selling one object per day. Home shopping the most basic way, almost repulsive : "We anticipate profitability by 2043 – by then we should be retired; someone smarter might take over and jack up the prices. Until then, we're still the lovable scamps we've always been."

Now that's what I call intelligence and a truly forward looking statement.


* surprisingly enough, a rather strong French delegation makes the trip - after all, Bernard Spitz is also working on the 120th anniversary of diplomatic ties between France and Korea.

Websites :
SDF : http://www.seouldigitalforum.org.
woot! : http://www.woot.com.

PayPal m-pilots and 90s revivals

Bango didn't wait one day and the beginning of the Mobile Content World forum to announce their implementation of PayPal. The M-content enabler had to surf on the other news of the day (eBay putting their hands on Skype).

A couple of months ago, operators would pull the plug on Simpay (analyze this : pulling the plug on a wireless project) and now, in a weird late nineties revival, mobilecos are talking next gen networks and fearing for their golden geese (screaming to the top of their lungs they might lose their dear voice ARPU) while ambitious dotcoms are splashing headlines with megabuck megamergers. The same dotcoms with about the same indecent market caps (eBay, Yahoo!, Google...), followed by the same usual suspect (Microsoft).

But this time, they're not only using paper which may end down the drain : they're laying actual greenbacks from actual profits. Even better : consumers are using their mobile payment solutions.

Skype scrapers - continued

Watch out for piercing arrows from Amazon, folks. eBay eventually purchased Skype for a cool $2.6bn and with a clear intention : integrating it as soon as possible, especially with PayPal, and becoming a comm² co (commerce + communications).
All Skype's shareholders (including Hutch) are supposed to have agreed on the deal. The solution is definitely in better hands with a swift multi-platform giant than with a single operator or access provider, whatever its reach.
Beyond P2P / C2C, I'm sure eBay will develop interesting B2B solutions. Call centers, pick up your phones.