Sprint fires Google Voice at AT&T - T-Mobile

It doesn't take an app anymore to use Google Voice on Sprint*.

It doesn't take an ape anymore to spot the 800 pound gorilla in the US wireless jungle : AT&T is having T-mobile for lunch, and the great silverback issues $ 39 bn in greenbacks and shares to pay the bill.

Putting both events at the same level seems unfair, but this is all about asymetric warfare. Sprint Nextel will probably tell this kind of story to the FCC.

Meanwhile, the VoIP app battle keeps raging between Google Voice, Tango, Viber, Skype, Fring, and scores of new players who don't have to plant antennas across the States.

Meanwhile, IRL, people try to survive a much more vital battle in Japan's most battered prefectures, where fixed broadband often proves to be the last link with the rest of mankind.

mot-bile 2011

* as the operator introduces Nexus S 4G, the netco stresses the software level ("Sprint integrates Google Voice") :

"Over time, we've worked to bring an integrated Google Voice experience to your mobile device by building mobile apps, introducing Google Voice Lite, and most recently Number Porting. But we felt that ultimately, the most simple solution would be to partner with carriers to seamlessly integrate Google Voice with your mobile phone.
Today, we’d like to share that we’ve teamed up with Sprint to do just that.
First, Sprint customers will be able to use their existing Sprint mobile number as their Google Voice number and have it ring multiple other phones simultaneously. So now, calls to your Sprint mobile number can easily be answered from your office or your home phone, or even your computer through Gmail. Calls from Gmail and text messages sent from google.com/voice will also display your Sprint number. This basically gives Sprint customers all the benefits of Google Voice without the need to change or port their number.
Alternatively, Google Voice users can choose to replace their Sprint number with their Google Voice number when placing calls or sending text messages from their Sprint handset. This feature works on all Sprint phones and gives Sprint users all the benefits of Google Voice without the need for an app.
In both cases, Google Voice replaces Sprint voicemail, giving Sprint customers transcribed voicemail messages available online and sent via email and/or text message. International calls made from Google Voice users’ Sprint phones will be connected by Google Voice at our very low rates, and Sprint customers will also have access to the rest of Google Voice’s features, like creating personalized voicemail greetings based on who’s calling, call recording, blocking unwanted callers and more."

Google and Verizon eye a pad - or at least a patch

In interviews to the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg*, two Verizon Wireless execs confirmed the carrier's discussions with Google to launch a tablet running on Android OS.

The absence of such discussions would have been surprising.

Verizon and Google will probably accelerate TTM for one manufacturer, very much the way they did with Motorola for Android handsets, and together they have enough power and motivation to close the gap.

Close the gap ? For Verizon Wireless, tablet TTM is definitely less important than LTE TTM, and recent LTE trials in Boston seem to confirm this sense of emergency. VZW can not only remove its CDMA-GSM handicap vs AT&T, but also enjoy a temporary competitive edge when its Texan rivals struggle with capacity issues (partly courtesy Apple). Likewise, tablets and other devices will be less critical than the ecosystems behind : AT&T may or may not keep its exclusivity with Apple for the iPhone until 2012, it still managed to open up to both the Kindle and the iPad. V wants more control on the value chain than pipe filling, and on a more sustainable basis ? Time to prove it.

Close the gap ? I never considered the key race to be between Apple and Google. Mountain View is more aiming at Redmond's throat than at Cupertino's. Yes, Apple the manufacturer is succeeding where Nokia the manufacturer failed, in trade diversification**, but Apple will never enjoy Nokia's record market shares. Yes, Apple played the role of an accelerator for existing usages and business models (ie didn't invent smartphones nor app stores), but Google can go much further and not just because, as expected, it's pushing Android ahead on handsets : Google can literally become a category killer for the wealthiest players around in the telecom and software industries. Operators know it, Microsoft knows it. A success of Google's instant cloud scratchers on bigger screens represent a much bigger disruption than the iPad itself (not really a game changer in the global ecosystem).


mot-bile 2010

* "Verizon, Google Developing iPad Rival" (WSJ) / "Google, Verizon in Talks About a Rival to Apple's iPad" (Bloomberg)
** OK, Nokia has gone a long way from timber

Broadband by Google "small dot" com : cloudy, with chances of bitballs

mot-bile 2010 - Over 190,000 individuals and 1,100 communities contributed to Google's request for information about its "experimental fiber network"*.

Of course, the aim of this RFI was to optimize the buzz, to impress the FCC, and to scare competitors : the only thing Big G keeps saying about its "Ultra high speed broadband" project is that it will reach 1 Gbps FTTH (don't expect Google Broadband to be con-TISPated**), and that the "experience" will involve between 50,000 and 500,000 customers (small figures for a boolean search, but half a million sounds like a Warren Beatty kind of testbed).

So instead of a network coverage map, Google delivered this splendid PR map where "each small dot represents a government response, and each large dot represents locations where more than 1,000 residents submitted a nomination" :



And "wherever we decide to build" is up to us guys.

Said guys are in Vegas (along with Google, of course) at the CTIA show, listening to T-mobile about 3G++, Verizon Wireless about LTE, and Sprint about "4G" WiMAX***. All making plans to prevent network overloads courtesy iPhone, Android et al.

Next thing you know your Ma and Pa CLEC / coop telco looks attractive again because Google needs a really rural testbed in Armpit, ND or any other "small dot" on their map to tell the FCC they're not only rolling out fiber in San Mateo or Houston.

Wheather forecasts ? Cloudy, with chances of bitballs.

* "Next steps for our experimental fiber network" (Official Google Blog 20100326). Note that the number of communities almost doubled between the 3/26/2010 10:00:00 AM post and its 3/26/2010 05:26:00 AM update.
** "Google TiSP - US Open at Flushing Windows"
*** "HTC EVO 4G : Sprinting to 4G... or rather 4G WiMAX/3G EV-DO Rev. A"

Google Phone At Hand. No Kindling.

mot-bile 2009 - Nexus One is all over the web. Unlocked, open, bare, the gPhone will probably be cheaper than an iPhone... MNO subsidies not included.

MNO subsidies ? As Big G eventually takes on Apple & co on their core business, it decides to redefine the whole handset ecosystem : direct sales, operator agnostic, Dell Computer style, without the intel inside jingle.

Imagine a small M-VNO proposing competitive rates for data. All of a sudden, a bunch of nerds subscribe for their brand new Nexus and bring the house down. Far-fetched ? 3% of iPhone users generate 40% of the data traffic on AT&T's network, to the point the operator confessed : "we've got to get to those customers and have them recognize that they need to change their patterns or have to face other things" (see "AT&T may penalize iPhone users who hog data"). In other words : be a good customer, but not too smart. or else... "face other things". Whatever that means. Maybe some big guy with a slight Italian accent will come with a baseball bat and redesign your knee caps, or upload a creative application on your face.

Nexus One makes a lot of people nervous. Some even consider lawsuits : if Google inaugurates itself the next version of Android, the newcomer may face charges of anticompetitive behavior, even if it only sells one device.

I'm looking forward to an interesting 2010 year : Apple facing full-fledged competition, Nokia going at Blackberry's throat... and Google releasing its Kindle.

Because that's basically the same story for Google and Amazon : beyond the device (the "Google outside", if you prefer), the aim is to understand the whole value chain and to secure future revenues in a field that's bound to represent a great chunk of the core business in a very near future.

The main difference : Google are not into distribution, IRL.

Umbrellapps : iPhone but you can't VoIP

James W. Cicconi wrote a letter to Ruth Milkman on August 21, 2009, received on the same day (confirmation # 2009821776906).

In "AT&T Response to Wireless Telecommunications Bureau Letter, DA 09-1737 (July 31, 2009); RM-11361; RM-11497", Senior Executive Vice President, External and Legislative Affairs, AT&T notified Chief Wireless Telecommunications Bureau, Federal Communications Commission a few things:

- We read in the paper that Google Voice application to the Apple App Store had been rejected. AT&T was not consulted by Apple in the decision process.

- BTW : what is "Google Voice" anyway ? What lies behind that strange "umbrellapp" ? We had a quick look at their website and "'Google Voice' appears to be an umbrella term used to describe a collection of different services". Interesting, isn't it ? "AT&T expects that Google will provide a complete description of Google Voice in response to the letter it received from the Commission and we look forward to learning more about Google Voice based on that response".

- Maybe it has something to do with that other "Google Voice application specifically for BlackBerry devices, which AT&T customers may download from the Google Voice website. AT&T does not disable access to or use of this application". Who knows ? Anyway, any AT&T customer may use Google Voice on his or her iPhone without passing by that store, via web browsing. So maybe AT&T did some research on this weird app after all.

- AT&T and Apple do discuss about App services, including with third parties, to fix technical issues. And AT&T does have its say sometimes : "AT&T has discovered applications in the Apple App Store (after they had been approved by Apple) that raised concerns about the potential misuse of certain AT&T services or customer information. AT&T alerted Apple to our concerns and, in two cases, Apple referred AT&T directly to the application providers to discuss whether the concerns could be resolved. In the third case, AT&T understands that Apple addressed the matter with the application provider".

- and oh. "AT&T and Apple have an agreement regarding Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) functionality. Apple also is aware that AT&T’s wireless data terms and conditions prohibit subscribers from redirecting television signals." So we put on the same level VoIP and TV broadcasting. Maybe AT&T doesn't want VoIP because DRM issues are not solved yet for private conversations. Go figure...

- come to think of it, Amazon made a similar trade-off with its Kindle : no voice, but no monthly charge for connectivity. So not adding calling feature to an ebook reader would be equivalent to preventing a smartphone from making smart calls.


Here I want to mark a pause and applaud the poet(s) who wrote this beautiful sentence : "It is widely recognized by economists and jurists that parties to strategic alliances in competitive markets may enter into contracts to promote and protect their respective business interests and to refrain from taking actions adverse to those interests."

You liked it too ? There's a bit more of it until the next comma : "Consistent with such lawful, economically efficient practices common among parties to strategic alliances, including participants in the mobile wireless marketplace,". Now AT&T can deliver the news : "AT&T and Apple agreed that Apple would not take affirmative steps to enable an iPhone to use AT&T’s wireless service (including 2G, 3G and Wi-Fi) to make VoIP calls without first obtaining AT&T’s consent. AT&T and Apple also agreed, however, that if a third party enables an iPhone to make VoIP calls using AT&T’s wireless service, Apple would have no obligation to take action against that third party."

So basically AT&T and Apple agreed on a block of all VoIP applications on iPhones, except via exotic Wi-Fi access.

VoIPoiPhone ? Not OK

VoIPoWiFi ? OK, even on iPhone

VoIPoiCantSeeHowRightNowButSomewhereaGeekMayFindAWay ? Try me, but don't sue me.

Plastic Logic Ltd on AT&T, a Kindle for pros ?

Barnes & Nobles is claiming its leadership back as the leading library in the ebook arena. After all, its Bookstore app is the first of its kind in App Store downloads, and it's about to cash in after purchasing Fictionwise. ebooks already represent over 4% of book sales, and CAGR means we will soon enter into over 10% territories, meaning the real mass market thing.

B&N eBoosktore (bn.com/ebooks) proposes 700,000 titles, more than twice Amazon's catalog... not to mention Google's public domain books (over half a million titles). But Barnes & Nobles doesn't propose a double user generated content platform : Amazon competes with classic editors (Booksurge) as well as with such pure players as Lulu.com (CreateSpace).

eReader is available on such smartphone platforms as Blackberry or iPhone. New devices keep coming out of the pipe if not on the shelves yet.

B&N will be exclusive provider for Plastic Logic's eReader (plastic display, electronic ink, touchscreen, 8.5 x 11 x .25 inches - see plasticlogic.com). This newcomer, founded and run by senior managers and researchers from the PC world (HP for CEO Richard Archuleta, Hitachi for Pr Henning Sirringhaus...), supported by big names in VC (including Intel and Siemens), and boasting locations in California (not far from Big G in Mountain View), UK (Cambridge), and Germany (Dresden) is also discussing with all press groups to sex up its big screen.

But novels or newspapers are not the key content here : the idea is to give business users a new gizmo to manipulate all kinds of documents and presentations (PDF, Word, Excel, PPT...) on the go. Thus the touch screen and the wireless connectivity. I guess the idea is to build a niche between classic ebook readers and Tablet PCs.

Trials with AT&T are about to start, targeting a commercial launch "early 2010".

Nokia's Ovi Store - a follower-leader

Embarrassingly too late, Nokia decided to open its online Ovi Store globally. Or to revive the buzz around it.

About two years ago, I had some doubts about OVI's ability to counter Microsoft ("OVI, a Door facing Windows"). But since then, it also left Apple snatch the bulk of a market it was supposed to rule (the App Store recently celebrated 1 billion downloads). The mobile phone leader definitely lost his mojo a couple of years ago.

Yeah... I know there's this coopetition between the Scandinavian King and MNOs, who prefer a hyper hype partner taking a bigger cut, but on a pie customers want to pay for.

Luckily for Nokia, there's always AT&T, ever the enthusiast for MVNOs and other pipe-fillers. For a Texan, anything coming from Finland must be cool.

S60 does have a cool factor, after all. 50M users can't be totally wrong. What if they decide to turn what they saved by not chosing iPhone into more apps ?

Back To Square Auctions

AT&T and Verizon trembling, Vodafone sweating, Cox, Cablevision Systems Corporation and EchoStar waiting, Qualcomm peeping, Google smiling... and the FCC counting the billions...

... Welcome to the 2008 700 MHz wireless spectrum. A few blocks up for grabs*, 214 potential bidders, and no winner will be known before the end of the whole process.

Some losers have already made the headlines, or rather the frontline of an obscure web page : "01.12.08 Frontline Wireless statement - Frontline Wireless is closed for business at this time. We have no further comment." Which means Frontline Wireless is already out of the race, and out of business without having ever been in.

This is a wild race and a wild world. We are talking wide and deep coverage : this spectrum will help go through large areas, through walls. The FCC even proposes a "Tribal Land bidding credit" for someone who would care for uncovered reserves. How generous from an organization that optimizes the chances of a 2000-2001 redux.

We're talking CLEC of the wireless kind, FMC and the whole shebang. We're talking about scared incumbents in the mobile as well as in the fixed areas.

Back then, T-Mobile would add a few rounds in the German auctions - totally unnecessary, except for the government. I guess they wish they had that money right now.

Chances are the biggest winners won't get one bit of spectrum at the end of the day.

Meanwhile, France is discounting the entry ticket for its fourth 3G license.


* 1,099 licenses overall - Block A : 176 EA (Economic Area) licenses - Block B : 734 CMA (Cellular Market Area) license - Block C : 12 REAG (Regional EA Grouping) - Block D : 1 national license for public / private partnership - Block C : 176 EA (minimum bidding price : USD 4.6 bn). The 698-806 MHz band was freed by TV broadcasters switching to DTV.

Aloha's long goodbye, Standards Wars Episode 4G and the phantom menace

Here's AT&T's farewell gift for Aloha Partner, a phantom company full of spectrum, meant from the start* as an empty shell for sale : $2.5bn.

Here's the ITU's gift for WiMAX promoters : OFDMA / 802.16 joins FDMA, TDMA and CDMA in the IMT-2000 3G family just on time for the IMT-advanced kick-off. The 3GSM crew already knew this promising rival would be casted for Standards Wars Episode 4G, but this means intel & Co are here to stay beyond a phantom menace.

Here's 3's gift for Qualcomm : the Skypephone uses the Brew platform. San Diego joins Cupertino in the hype zone. Up North, Redmond is just starting to scratch the surface - a third Halo and a phantomatic 1.6% of Facebook**.


* see "Hiwire - Aloha Partners, Goodbye Stranger" (20060502)
** see "Microsoft outpervasived by Facebook and RIM" (20071025)

iPhone is not my Oyster 3G

Apple's iConic handsets started to fly off the shelves.
They do looks beautiful, provided you keep your gloves on. They have Apple fingerprints all over, but a rather black, Korean touch as well. They will give AT&T a boost, but on a 2G network and with a Blackberrish herd of servers to support the service. Jobs love Gates, but the iPhone uses the same H.264 video format as YouTube, and is meant to give Safari a boost in the nascent mobile browsing market*... are Steve and Bill considering keeping their marriage secret for another ten years ?

ip.access also offers good looking devices ; their Oyster 3G femtocells even won a GSMA's Global Mobile Award earlier this year. But Frost & Sullivan awarded IPWireless with a Technology of the Year label last march, and two months later NextWave Wireless (better known for PacketVideo and WiMAX) completed the acquisition of the TD-CDMA - TDtv champion...

What else ? 3 items picked (almost) randomly :

. The EC and Viviane Reding keep pushing DVB-H. Sorry, no spectrum. And no cash back for those insane 3G auctions either.

. Saudi Telecom, a laggard in booming Middle East, eventually joins the investing frenzy. Malaysia's Maxis is their first foreign target ever. What a coincidence... after islamic banking, there could actually be a big market for islamic telecom... Infrastructure Shariah anyone ?

. Wells Fargo & Company and Visa USA pursue their NFC mobile banking trials. After Phase I (this spring : employees, Wells Fargo Customer Experience Research Lab) and before Phase II (this summer : employees, Visa payWave enabled merchants), WFC released their new CEO Mobile services (that's Commercial Electronic Office). Real customers - 300-500 Wells Fargo Visa cardholders - won't be involved before Phase III (this autumn ?). After that, you should be hearing about some operator... beyond Visa, that is.


*Safari's web browser usage share is well below 5%, but has been significantly improving lately.

Bouygues not for sale ? How about TF1 ?

France's new president makes no secret of his friendship with Martin Bouygues, Arnaud Lagardere, Serge Dassault or Vincent Bollore, major players in France's industrial and communications landscape.
As soon as Sarko got elected, L'Expansion revived rumors of a takeover of Areva and its nuclear gems by Bouygues, and the eventuality of the sale of Bouygues Telecom for EUR 8+ bns. Sarko loves Amerika but AT&T may have other fish to fry than a small spot in the middle of a saturated Europe. Deutsche Telecom just sold its ISP in France (Club Internet), but KPN (a fellow DoCoMo partner) confirmed its interest. And Telefonica has been expecting some reciprocity since Orange entered its home market. Even Vodafone could prefer 100% of France's #3 to 44% of #2 SFR....
Whatever. Bouygues doesn't seem as focused on communication as it used to. Lately, the group lost TPS to Canal+, the battle for TNT / DTV's best slots, part of its soccer rights to France Television, plus his Darth Vaderish leader Patrick Le Lay is about to be replaced by Nonce Paolini, a man who was deliberately sidelined during the elections nights, these key moments when medias meet with all politicians...
Beyond Bouygtel, the sale of TF1 would be a major hearthquake.
Vincent Bollore hates Bouygues and provided the private jet and yacht to Sarkozy for his Malta honeymoon with France. Silvio Berlusconi loves Nicolas Sarkozy and has unfinished business with France. He would be delighted to help Bouygues refocus on its core industrial activities. Bouygues Telecom could be sold once the question of the 4th 3G license is closed, opening a new era of partnerships at the wireless as well as the landline level (Free Iliad ?).

MVNO frenzy and extreme hangovers

Sprint welcomes another MVNO, and the utterly bankable KDDI Mobile brand has a crystal clear ambition : selling more Kyoceras in the US.
Meanwhile and closer to Japan, Google Phones are being made in Taiwan by HTC and cobranded by the MNO. The utterly bankable Google brand is definitely not meant to become a MVNO. Yet.
The so nineties Blyk concept is gathering an impressive pool of advertisers for its pan-European launch on Orange networks.
The so eighties Sonopia's DIY MVNO / MVNE concept is gathering an impressive media coverage. Get cool calling cards with your company's logo, grow as big as AT&T in less than two weeks... ego will sell this summer.
But the so Y2Ks WiFi - 3G PC Card concept doesn't sell : Helio Hybrid ends a partnership with Boingo going airbuso...
The MVNO primaries are definitely not over, but Amp'd clearly feels a Joementum - I don't have New Hampshire's figures (nor Canada's, for that matter), but this natural born winner is approaching the 200,000 subs mark (100,000 EOY 2006), with a 84% postpaid customer base (just slightly down from 89%), and ARPU remains strong at $100. Do you want the sign that says "purchase me right now" or the one that reads "wanted : Vegas wedding chapel" ?
Someone must clean this crowded place one way or the other, even the most extreme. Fortunately, ExtremeMob (extrememob.com) is not the mafia's MVNO but the result of a deal between Xebra Limited and Vodafone UK. This fall, Extreme Mobile Limited will target the X generation with all the Weapons of Mass Disruption of the Extreme Media Group (extrememediagroup.com) : Extreme Sports Channel, Ex Publishing, Extreme Entertainment (content), Ex Events, Extreme Retail and even Extreme Hotels, Extreme Parks, or Extronics. "ExtremeMob is more than just about extreme sports, it’s about being an integral part of the lifestyle of under 24’s". The handset shown in the press release goes with an extreme headset, and the said "under 24's" may go with an extreme hangover thanks to Xebra's Extreme Drinks.
ExtremeMob can claim the Pole position : Xebra was recently purchased by Centernet / NFI Midas.

Pay-Buy Mobile - DoCoMo inside

KTF will pioneer GSMA's "Pay-Buy Mobile" initiative in Korea this summer, a couple of weeks after SK Telecom's launch of a service with Visa International (30,000 3G subscribers from April on).

PBM combines NFC (which should please Nokia) with SIM/Cards techno (which should please operators), and the initial casting of 14 operators from 3 continents looks strong : overall, AT&T; China Mobile; KALL; KTF; MCI; MTN; NTT DoCoMo; Rogers Wireless; Smart Communications; Telenor, TeliaSonera; Telecom Italia; Turkcell, and Vimpelcom claim 900 millions subs.

Yet, don't look for a SK Telecom, a Orange, a Telefonica or a Vodafone out there. The Sympay syndrom ? The fear NTT DoCoMo might steal the show and try to make PBM converge with its own initiatives (FeliCa and EDY through BitWallet) ?

Don't look for a bank either. At this stage.

What I do see though, is a transcontinental initiative with a GSMA label. And only a crosscontinental move could force a change in Europe, GSMA's birthplace. Up to now, a lobbying deadlock has been preventing operators and financial institutions from reaching an agreement and m-payment from progressing towards standardization. No-one wants to lose ground on one's home turf (mobility, financial services), and no-one wants a competitor to succeed (ie banks blocking deals between cellcos and more reactive players like Visa or Amex).

Should this G14 federate a few institutions across - say - Asia and North America, things may change. No financial institution will want to lose the face on that one for too long.

DoCoMo did put a few coins in AT&T and KTF. An expensive dime at a not always relevant time. We are about to know if they were just playing with one-armed bandits or really expecting some payback.

AT&T U-Verse 1 - better than chapter 11

Born again AT&T introduced its U-verse concept at the 2005 CES, with the ambition of covering 18M homes by the end of 2008. FTTH IPTV services only started late last month in 5,000 homes in San Antonio, TX with the help of Verizon's FiOS network.
This offer would look rather disappointing to Korean eyes and wallets : no more than 6 megs, up to $120 per month for a wireless bundle... but hey that's a start and ain't that much competition in SBC's 13-state-wide kingdom, so let early adopters finance innovation.

AT&T already rules in SBCland with 7.4M ADSL lines, but they intend to reach 100% in broadband coverage thanks to various fibers in urban areas, satellite broadband in rural areas (Project Lightspeed is supposed to reach 5.5M low-income households by the end of 2009), and fixed wireless (WiMAX a top pick) to fill the blanks.

The first 13 states before the whole country... this state of the AT&T-SBC union address should resonate as a warning to competing superpowers : we're not only focusing on homeland security ; we're also preparing preemptive strikes everywhere. But the old Texan way : we don't want to make it sound like an aggression, so no need to add "bring it on".

I also find rather clever their partnership with Yahoo! and Verizon Wireless "for a generation of tech-savvy consumers who rely on the Internet and wireless phones as their primary communications tools" (to wit : the smart ones who are leaving the incumbent - a speechless and voiceless carrier). AT&T position themselves as a central integrator of services : we help you subscribe to AT&T Yahoo! High Speed Internet, and to Verizon Wireless as well if you need a wireless service, but you can still chose AT&T for voice services at home. Beyond the usual "free" LLO services (Call Waiting, Three-Way Calling, Call Forwarding...), the AT&T CallVantage package proposes well marketed bonuses :
- Call Logs (with "click to dial")
- Do Not Disturb (only emergency calls pass through)
- Personal Conferencing (10 people overall)
- Locate Me (when you're away from home, incoming calls track you by ringing up to five phones all at once or one right after the other)
- Web-Based Voice Mail (AT&T just couldn't not include it in such an offer)

Why is it so interesting ? I'm not sure it will work, but it's neither some double-stage VoIP thing like Skype, nor an ugly plug-in like Vonage's latest USB gizmo. It's a truly operated service from a genuine operator or better, a Virtual Network Operator on its own network. It's both a win-back and a win-period approach, an attempt to sublimate voice services and fully give them their value back. I wish it weren't that expensive and I wish it could go beyond fixed and mobile, and even beyond the now traditional homezone concept.

Alcatel - Lucent : the swiftness of paper

5 years ago, Lucent would refuse a merger with Alcatel because it wasn't a merger of equals. I'm not sure it is this time either, but do Lucent shareholders have a choice ?
This non-event simply epitomizes the end of Ma Bell as we knew her. AT&T, the born again brand, seems to enjoy a new life from Plano, TX... but whatever happened to those prestigious labs ?
It's no more about the creativity of human beings, the ability to cope with new environments, to face the future. It's about the swiftness of paper, the ability to purchase evolutivity, to buy a few months.
Today's R&D does require a pervasive networking approach, but beyond the imperialistic / Cisco model. At the end of the day, you can waste a few months if you gain a beautiful mind.

NTT - DoCoMo : remerge, split-up, disrupt ?

You don't want 65% of your group's profits wandering too far away. So NTT want DoCoMo back. But new entrant MNOs strongly disagree. While announcing the selection of Ericsson as eMobile Ltd's main 3G network provider, CEO Sachio Senmoto asked for an AT&T-like split-up of the whole shebang, including DoCoMo because of their 56% market share. NTT is already a patchwork of regional units, but who would dare touch m-Japan Inc's champ ?

eMobile's extreme request was mainly meant to prevent the reconstitution of NTTsama Bell. Even DoCoMo can be a struggling leader... but with the full back-up / backhaul of its mother company, no competitor could ever dream of annoying them.

I'd like to know what DoCoMo's top execs think about a remerger with NTT. The cultural gap with the fixed dragon has been widening for years, the group would be under even more scrutiny, and the "everything mobile / pervasive mobility" vision would badly suffer the contradiction... But shouldn't they somehow be asking themselves how much they need a truly convergent profile to remain at the top ?

Orange are logically adopting France Telecom's integrated vision and even at Vodafone, former Mannesmann - Arcor people keep pushing for a descent in the "fixed" arena (again, the other day, at the CeBIT, a Vodafone DSL revival). If I were DoCoMo, I would at least consider reviewing my 10 year old vision. And why not, seize the opportunity : escape the risk of NTT dragging down the company and demand a formal and final split-up. I want my liberty back, I want to deal with any fixed player I want or why not, build my own.



* More about eMobile : in "J:COM's quadruple play - within the fence" (20060210) and in "3Greenfield Japan" (20051113)

Bells ringing - Vivendeals ahead

Baby Bells grew up since Ma Bell died. AT&T Jr and Verizon should snatch BellSouth and Qwest, and three years from now max, they somehow will have built an international stronghold in the wireless area.
Vodafone will sell (Verizon, Vodafone KK), but also buy. As rumors revived, the French government released a report on potential targets from France's CAC40 companies. Among them, Vivendi Universal are enjoying their own headline news : the "Universal" part is dropped, and SFR's lifetime ad agency, Publicis, just snatched the France Telecom - Orange budget. Maurice Levy can split his teams but not his own self. The new budget can definitely mean bigger money, but the risk should be taken only if Levy is sure of getting the whole Orange (especially after a Wanadoo rebranding), and not so sure of keeping the SFR business away from Vodafone adcos.
Vivendi could sell their cash cow but if they want to fight as a European leader in broadcasting an increasing competition, the timing looks perfect.

DoCoMo's Xmas : Fuji and KT Freetel

2.6%. That's as far as Ebeneezer Scrooge DoCoMo will go for Fuji Television Network, Inc. Google took a slice twice thicker from AOL but hey, that's much better than what Livedoor was allowed to grab.

NTT DoCoMo and Fuji TV are not preparing Xmas but April fool's day : "The agreement precedes the launch of "One-segment" terrestrial digital broadcasting on April 1, 2006, which will present new opportunities for linkages with mobile services."

I'm much more interested in their deal with KT Freetel : 10%, that's a little more ambitious, but DoCoMo used to ask for more... remember their strategic bravado with AT&T Wireless ? Beyond the financial and technological failure, they couldn't even launch the i-mode brand in the US.

Roaming agreements were one thing (SKT eventually preferred TIM, SFR & Vodafone for W-CDMA roaming in Europe), boosting FOMA and DoCoMo-style HSDPA is quite another... and building a Manga-Hallyu pool yet another : "and also this can be a good opportunity for both countries' content providers and solution providers to extend their reach to overseas market". Message to SKT : keep strengthening your ties with the US, China and Europe.

At the edges of the middle

NTT DoCoMo know 4G will take off in Asia but they also know they can't do it on their own. They failed last time but for the next gen they decided to invest massively where size matters. China. Putting $2.5 bn a year on 3G+ / 4G R&D in Beijing will not solve the diplomatic quagmire caused by the surge of nippon revisionism but it may help DoCoMo take a lead in standardization.
On the other hand, investing massively in AT&T Wireless didn't prove to be the best way of reaching the US market. Chinese developpers can as well take the money and run, rock, roll and roll out without caring much for their once powerful neighbors.

Mavericks and Spurs

Celebration day for Texas :
- From Irving, Exxon announce record profits for 2004 (about 19.5 bn euros)
- The San Antonio Spurs complete a 3 game winning streak and lead the Western Conference (the Dallas Mavericks a distant second in the Southwestern Division)
- Dubya celebrates the elections in Iraq... yeah, the guy was born in New Haven, CT and majored Binge Drinking 101 there (not to mention 102 at Harvard in Massachussets) but he damn well managed to catch the Texan brawl and some oily connexions in Midland
- and last but not least, Oedipus Rex in San Antonio : in the Bell family, ma AT&T falls in the arms of baby SBC
Well, the old lady has been massively losing some weight lately. In a rather indecent strip tease, she got rid of wireless, cable and even consumer services, barely keeping a brand and some debts. But still, imagine Word purchasing Microsoft 20 years from now. Or Symbian wolfing Nokia down (wish I held a monopoly, laments Jorna Ollila)...
When you consider the US pond, it looks like all the alligators are about to take a nap on their big bellies. Good opportunities for those who haven't feasted yet (Comcast ?), but the swift and hungry ones could also take a bite (SK-Earthlink ?).