Hey kids, Apple is educating the market for iPad

mot-bile 2009 - Traditionally, ebook readers have been marketed for an elite of early adopters not only interested in high-tech but also in books.

With its Kindle, Amazon focused on "human" readers, making the technology as transparent as possible, talking about books instead of gizmos, and widening the base all of a sudden.

For its iPad, Apple seems to be focusing on kids and education (beyond, of course, the iMac / iPod / iPhone followers). Neither reinventing the old chalk tablet nor the old "kids as prescriptors" mantra : simply considering an important part of the edition ecosystem snubbed by rivals, a cornerstone of familial and societal spheres.

You're going to hear a lot about school textbooks, lessons, ebooks for kids, animated mangas and cartoons, and even do-it-yourself cartoons. About more serious stuff of course, but somewhere, Jeff Bezos must wonder why his marketing teams didn't venture beyond the standard Amazon customer.

Obama considering purchasing an IPad

That's what I gathered listening to his State Of The Union speech : the POTUS said he wanted to focus on Jobs and to help the country cruise safely through this painful iPeriod.


mot-bile 2010

Google in China : don't be evil anymore ?

Google decided to risk all its China operations in a public* stand-up against local censorship and repression but at this stage, it's hard to tell whether Mountain View acts as a proxy to prevent a major clash between Washington and Beijing, or to the contrary as a courageous whistleblower exposing a major crisis up to now contained by both diplomatic teams. Or is it simply good PR because the cover-up couldn't last much longer anyway ?

The crisis ? A massive cyberattack from China last December, against Google and "at least twenty other large companies from a wide range of businesses--including the Internet, finance, technology, media and chemical sectors". As far as Big G is concerned, they "we have evidence to suggest that a primary goal of the attackers was accessing the Gmail accounts of Chinese human rights activists," but (in substance) our systems proved once against their infallibility and if a few activists were eventually phished, it was outside of China and only because of their carelessness so at the end of the day we're pretty sure no good guy is rottening in one of their terrible "black jails" or worse because of us...

... but this is definitely getting a bit too far. And Google is under enough pressure in the West these days... so avoiding a major blunder in the East could be wise, even if it means making less business there... So. "We have decided we are no longer willing to continue censoring our results on Google.cn, and so over the next few weeks we will be discussing with the Chinese government the basis on which we could operate an unfiltered search engine within the law, if at all. We recognize that this may well mean having to shut down Google.cn, and potentially our offices in China."

This noble deed fairy tale even includes a footnote reminding us accepting censorship in the first place was some kind of "discomfort" for Google. "At the time we made clear that "we will carefully monitor conditions in China, including new laws and other restrictions on our services. If we determine that we are unable to achieve the objectives outlined we will not hesitate to reconsider our approach to China.""

Right now, Google China's future in the Middle Empire does look rather gloomy. China will have to give some sort of indirect answer**, arrest some fake culprit or whatever, but it is even less likely to concede to a foreign company than to a foreign country.

Is this good news for human rights in China ? Yes and no : Beijing may enjoy an even stronger direct control on the internet.

Will Google prevail in the long term in China ? As Zhou Enlai said about some other major disruption : too early to tell.


mot-bile 2010

* see "A new Approach to China" (Official Google Blog - 20010112)

** ** even if being caught red-handed is not a crime in communist China

IPTV and VoIP in Korea : an update

Since our last update last August (see "IPTV in Korea: an update"), Korea's IPTV market has almost tripled and is claiming 1.729 M subscribers EOY 2009 :

KT : 1,010,000 subs (58.4% market share vs 46% in July)
SKT : 403,000 (MS: 23.3% vs 22%)
LGT : 316,000 (MS: 18.2% vs 32%)

Even if all 3 players can leverage on their mobile bases, mobile leader SKT is not reducing the gap with KT, who benefits from an earlier start in / a better culture of convergence. Furthermore, SKT's "T" brand lags behind to the popular "Cook + Show" package in fun factor (reminder : Show is KT's 3G W-CDMA brand and Cook it's nth umbrella brand for fixed line services). LG Telecom is unfortunately more successful in converging towards its own mobile market share (around 16%).

But LGT's IPTV base keeps growing, and the group (via LG DaCom) remains the leader in the (also at last) booming VoIP market (sce Yonhap) :

LGT : 71.1% market share EOY 2008 (1.202 M subs), 42.7% EOY 2009 (2.140 M), 26.9% over 2009 (net gain : + 0.938 M)
KTF : 19.4% market share EOY 2008 (0.328 M subs), 32.9% EOY 2009 (1.700 M), 39.4% over 2009 (net gain : + 1.372 M)
SKT : 9.5% market share EOY 2008 (0.160 M subs), 33.6% EOY 2009 (1.330 M), 33.6% over 2009 (net gain : + 1.170 M)
Total : 5.17 M vs 1.69 M (+ 3.48 M)

Cablecos must wonder what Korea's 3 MNOs will leave to them EOY 2010 (KT boasted only 16,000 IPTV customers EOY 2008). On the other hand, MNO success in fixed access may help M-VNO candidates (such as Onse Telecom, as we saw earlier) make their cases.


mot-bile 2010

SK Telecom pushes Android

It's CES time again and ahead of the show, Google and Apple have warmed up the audience*, Palm afficionados braced themselves for a new Pre-view, and HDTV confirmed it's dispositions to grow smarter and 3D.

But I'd like to get back to what's happening in Korea right now. Following iPhone's successful launch ("iPhone rocks Seoul and sacred cows"), both SK Telecom and KT are left without decent app stores of their own. We saw how SKT relied too timidly on the Samsung Omnia, but KT didn't play it smart either, stuck in the iPhone trap : on one hand you want to optimize your ROI in the Apple partnership, on the other you need to grow you own ecosystem and avoid the iPhone dependence. And which model do you think KT proposed as a plan B ? The same Omnia.**

SK Telecom started the new year with a higher profile : it's both high time to turn the WIPI page and the best moment to build Korea's leading platform against Apple. Android got the regulatory nod and ahead of the commercial launch, SKT proposed a "T-Store Application Contest" to developpers (reward : KRW 40 M or about USD 35.3 k).

The first Android device will be a Motorola (in February), but 11 other handsets are planned by EOY 2010, mostly from Korean manufacturers, who cannot afford lagging behind any longer : beyond Korea, they target China, where a big chunk of 2010-2011 smartphone market shares will be taken (even in case of a probable second dip). US (Motorola) and Taiwan (HTC) won't wait for Korea Inc.

It's not just about Samsung and LG : the whole ecosystem needs to catch up, and the future of many Taehangno service providers and start-ups depends on their ability to ride the next wave. SK Telecom can recover its mojo if it acts as a smart and swift leader. Again.

mot-bile 2010

* the former going at iPhone's throat with his Nexus One, the latter preparing a counteroffensive into Big G's mobile advertising dreamland (Quattro Wireless will fill a gap in Cupertino's portfolio).

** note that the iPhone-Omnia battle has recently shifted in favor of Samsung : if more than 240,000 iPhones have been sold so far, Omnia is now leading in daily sales. Very much like the lack of 3G played against Apple during its 2007 launch, rivals pointed out the lack of connectivity (WiFi but moreover and as expected DMB), but also dramatized the fact that you cannot replace batteries with an iPhone. Seeding doubt in consumer minds done, more positive messages could start passing. For instance, Omnia's DivX player more often mentioned.

Skype on your TV : home improvement ?

mot-bile 2010 - Skype stole part of the Google show : if the Nexus One was already yesterday's news*, Skype is tomorrow's.

Because coming up this spring, Panasonic and LG internet-connected HDTVs will have Skype inside**.

OK. We're not talking major innovation there. Only smart bundling. And for the moment, it's either Skype or TV, so forget about chatting while watching a program, for instance a soccer game (heard the news ? there's a World Cup this year). But it should help videophony get a boost, and internet TV become as mainstream as it should be.

Next thing you know, some may reconsider using at home that other always on screen of theirs, a much more personal yet smaller and costlier one.

Former Skype owners eBay were left at the gate, but I'm sure they - among others - would love to take a shot at home shopping networks. Anyway, expect in a very near future more familiar logos sticked on every internet HDTV.

* see "Google Phone at hand, no kindling".

ADDENDUM 20100105 : on the official Google blog, Mario Queiroz, VP of Product Management
developped "Our new approach to buying a mobile phone" (or rather "superphones")
"through a new, simple online web store from Google".

** see Skype video on "Get Skype on your TV" (Skype - 20100105)

Apple Tablet, or iSlate, or Google Whatever

What's in a domain name ? When a company takes an URL it's not necessarily to use it*. It can be a defensive move, for instance to limit noise around one of its brands.

Tracking domain names for major corporations is now part of day to day routine when you are into business intelligence, that's the reason why companies who want to remain discreet use a proxy. Arnold Kim just reignited rumors about an Apple Tablet to be launched early next year ("Apple Purchased iSlate.com in 2007. Apple's New Tablet Called iSlate?" - MacRumors.com 20091224), but iSlate happens to be the name of an Apple Store app...

... which doesn't change anything : the best way to protect a brand is to use it, and iSlate would make a nice brand to rival the "tablet" label (I can't see Apple marketing a "tablet device" any more than I can see it mention "PC" for its own devices).

Anyway Apple needs to propose a solution for scribblers, sketchers, and their readers. Google has yet to join the netbook party, but I can't see Google NOT working on some android thing or another in that field, and not just to fill the fabled 20 percent time.

ebooks, tablets, and related mobile devices are nothing new but they are bound to have a better decade than the one which is about to end.

mot-bile 2009

* I recently got rid of the bulk I owned after my registrar tripled the annual fees, and some have been snatched right away but that's OK.

UPDATE 20100118

Apple is expected to announce the entertainment gizmo (ebook, movies, music...) in an event on January 27th.

Korea : Onse Telecom wants to be a MVNO

Onse Telecom announced its intention to become a MVNO by 2011, lobbying the National Assembly to pass the law obliging 3 incumbents to open their networks.

The landline operator boasted it could claim 5% of the market (about 2M customers), thanks to lower rates and "differentiating" offers.

I guess Onse execs are more interested in "diversification" than "differenciation" : VoIP is bound to hit seriously their core business in Korea (international voice services - ie Shinbiro calling cards), and all 3 incumbents are also integrated fixed-mobile players, only bigger : LG Telecom is about to follow SK and KT and to merge all its telecom units.

Differenciation through creative marketing ? Don't expect support from the new mother company : Taihan Electric Wire is into wires, fibers, powerlines... Onse itself delivers equipments and systems, even if it stopped its terminal manufacturing activity last year.

Onse Telecom is expected to post profits in 2009, but that will be a premiere after an eight year losing streak. Lately, they've mostly been converting third bonds with warrants into shares...

So the message is not "Onse Telecom wants to be a MVNO" as much as "if you want to become a MVNO in Korea, Onse Telecom can help you face the big guys." Of course they could leverage on their customer base, but they also enjoy a certain technical know-how, and the experience of interfacing with different network operators. So they could position themselves as the ideal MVNE, starting with themselves as the first customer.

mot-bile 2009

Free Mobile gets France's 4th 3G license, will offer VoIP

mot-bile 2009 - French regulator ARCEP gave the final nod to Illiad's 100% (for the moment - see previous episodes including "Free: alea jacta est") subsidiary. Free Mobile gave all the guarantees needed and pledged to offer all web services on the mobile, including VoIP.

Also to be noted : total transparency for the cost of mobiles. Consumers will know when they pay for the devices or for the traffic... greenfield Free found a smart way of disturbing the local operators / manufacturers cuisine.

Overall, Free gets 382 points out of 500 : 55/65 for commercial offers, 64/100 for coverage, 20/25 for QoS, 54/60 for relationships with service providers, 22/25 for customer relationships, 22/25 for environment, 22/25 for employment, 56/75 for business plan consistency and credibility, 72/100 for project constistency and credibility.

In a nutshell :
. TTM / commercial launch : 2 years from now.
. coverage : just above the levels required for 3G (voice : 27% at launch instead of 25%, 75% after 5 years, 90% after 8 years instead of 90%), and a contribution to the common effort for 2G coverage of remote areas
. staff : from 1,000 (EOY 2012) to 5,000 (EOY 2018)
. M-VNOs : Free Mobile will accept up to 4 full m-vnos
. devices : offers without terminals, payment of terminals over few months
. voice : an access package including 3 hours of intraeuropean calls for less than 20 euros
. data : all offers include mobile internet access
. customer services : customers can contact for free consumer associations when they want to post a complaint ! The best way to relieve Free's hotlines and to get rid of the said associations !!!

Of course, Free Mobile's capital is as expected very likely to be raised to finance both 3G and FTTH, and that's been clearly specified in the proposal.

Next steps for the ARCEP ? Attributing the remaining blocks of frequencies : 5 and 4.8MHz in the 2.1GHz band (H1 2010 - open to any player), and the 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz bands for 4G (H2 2010).

"L'ARCEP retient la candidature de Free Mobile" (20091218) + slides presented during today's Press conference

TeliaSonera 4G LTE, with a little elf from my friends

mot-bile 2009 - TeliaSonera launched commercially 4G LTE in Stockholm (Ericsson network) and Oslo (Huawei network) with a Samsung 4G USB key. Roll out will continue over 2010 : the 4 biggest cities in Norway, the top 25 cities and vacation areas in Sweden.

Of course, handsets are not ready yet, and the MNO makes good use of this technical and PR stunt to draw new partners : "Evaluation of suppliers for TeliaSonera's common 4G core network and radio networks in the Nordic and Baltic countries is in progress and vendors will be selected in the beginning of 2010*"... Too late to save the face of a well known Finnish vendor called Nokia. Sonera comes from Finland and TeliaSonera was awarded a license there last month, but the group is based in Sweden and proceeded with the Chinese champion along with Ericsson.

Of course, TeliaSonera is likely to select buyers as well as vendors. And the likes of France Telecom could also feel the 4G acceleration.

This operation has been smoothly run for months, without overhyping. TeliaSonera even launched ahead of schedule. No big deal. A non-event, almost.

Far from the complex launch of 3G by NTT DoCoMo but then again, technical, commercial, and political challenges were completely different.

And back then, NTT DoCoMo was claiming the world and calling smaller fishes to join his big pond. Here, TeliaSonera is clearly calling a bigger fish : hey Santa, please hire me in your workshop ! look, been a good elf, uh ? I showed you the goods, now show me the money.


* "TeliaSonera first in the world with 4G services" (20091212)

Google Phone At Hand. No Kindling.

mot-bile 2009 - Nexus One is all over the web. Unlocked, open, bare, the gPhone will probably be cheaper than an iPhone... MNO subsidies not included.

MNO subsidies ? As Big G eventually takes on Apple & co on their core business, it decides to redefine the whole handset ecosystem : direct sales, operator agnostic, Dell Computer style, without the intel inside jingle.

Imagine a small M-VNO proposing competitive rates for data. All of a sudden, a bunch of nerds subscribe for their brand new Nexus and bring the house down. Far-fetched ? 3% of iPhone users generate 40% of the data traffic on AT&T's network, to the point the operator confessed : "we've got to get to those customers and have them recognize that they need to change their patterns or have to face other things" (see "AT&T may penalize iPhone users who hog data"). In other words : be a good customer, but not too smart. or else... "face other things". Whatever that means. Maybe some big guy with a slight Italian accent will come with a baseball bat and redesign your knee caps, or upload a creative application on your face.

Nexus One makes a lot of people nervous. Some even consider lawsuits : if Google inaugurates itself the next version of Android, the newcomer may face charges of anticompetitive behavior, even if it only sells one device.

I'm looking forward to an interesting 2010 year : Apple facing full-fledged competition, Nokia going at Blackberry's throat... and Google releasing its Kindle.

Because that's basically the same story for Google and Amazon : beyond the device (the "Google outside", if you prefer), the aim is to understand the whole value chain and to secure future revenues in a field that's bound to represent a great chunk of the core business in a very near future.

The main difference : Google are not into distribution, IRL.

AOL dot nothing ?

mot-bile 2009 - The spin-off of AOL from Time Warner is operational. A giant leap for Tim Armstrong, who must now be focusing on finding new partners before the incredible shrinking company becomes too passe. I hope he's got a powerful search engine...

Who wants to marry a former billionaire with a new name (AOL Inc.), a new logo (Aol. nothing), a couple of valuable web brands, a few million ISP customers... ? Ring my bell, says Tim. And he'll be doing just that, himself, at the NYSE this Thursday morning.

It does raise the image of the Salvation Army but precisely, something Dickensian could happen - you know, the down-and-out-then-back-on-top kind of tale... ?

Google.co.kr stopped the diet

This is google.co.kr in English :




The same URL, Korean version ? Ta-daaa :



OK... looks like a weak North Korean attempt to compete with the flashy and animated homepages of local rivals Daum or Naver, but that's a giant leap for Googlekind. Images beyond the logo - heck, actual photos ! - an embryo of menu, some bits of news... Plus 2 small PNGs to catch your eye :
- (top) the little house on the prair-e to reach your iGoogle page
- (bottom) a "+" which becomes a "-" when you click it : Big G then unfolds its own menu of services without refreshing the whole page

Time is money. Google used to prove it by skimming all fat tissues from its most essential URL, but now they're following the adage in a different meaning : let's not waste time catching up with leaders, even if it means bending sacrosanct rules.

But if low carb homepages are history in Korea (and probably Japan and China, where Big G's market shares are also below "normal"), "don't not evil" is still standing.

For the moment.


mot-bile 2009

---
ADDENDUM 20091211

According to Joseon Ilbo, Rankey estimated that the new Google homepage, launched on Friday the 4th, gained 83% Saturday (reaching 921,000 visitors), plus 29% Sunday, plus 9% Monday. No comparisons were given with the previous week.

iPhone rocks Seoul and sacred cows

KTF will probably sell between 300,000 and 500,000 iPhones in Korea, and Apple make a big splash for Christmas.

The buzz has been building up for many years, people have been massively preordering iPhones (over 60,000 units, to be compared to an estimated 400,000 base of smartphone users in Korea), and well ahead of the official release (yesterday), massively purchasing iPhone accessories.

As we mentioned before (see "iPhone wakes up Korean mobile internet market"), Apple will probably be associated with a boom in usages which should have happened much earlier : it's less a matter of design and hardware (Samsung and LG handsets have caught up in user experience), than a litany of missed opportunities, protectionist regulations, and terrible marketing (dissuasive pricing for data, app stores launched much too late...).

If Korean operators and manufacturers have no one to blame but themselves, at least KT / KTF will enjoy the exclusivity for awhile. And the context is perfect : hipsters don't have much choice for Xmas, all high tech fields considered. There are fantastic TVs out there, and the World Cup is coming soon, but that's a completely different range of prices.

Speaking of which... a "basic" iPhone 3GS 8 giga costs KRW 132,000 (about USD 112.6) for a 2 year subscription at the "basic" rate of KRW 45,000 (about USD 38.4 - the kind of basis many MNOs would love to boast). The 32 giga reaches KRW 365,000 (about USD 311), but the price goes down to KRW 264,000 for subs with a KRW 65k plan, and to zero for premium customers (KRW 95k / mo).

That's much more aggressive than what competitors expected, but Apple and KT obviously learnt a lesson from China, where the device struggles. Apple didn't want to fail in the homeland of two major rivals, and decided to forget about short term rentability.

What does it leave for rivals, beyond negative campaigning ? Differentiation by technology ? There's no DMB on iPhones, and that's the key techno for mobile TV in Korea... for the moment. And SKT customers pay for DMB TV, not KT customers...

You get it : the only way is to join the price war. In other countries, rival operators could counter the iPhone with a wider range of terminals but here, LG and Samsung control 90% of the market. Samsung and SKT united to discount iPhone rival Samsung Omnia2 to the max, dividing the price by two or three, and giving it away for subs who pay KRW 95,000 per month. The beauty used to sell for KRW 900,000, and incredibly enough, price cuts only started a few weeks ago, and by not even 15% ! So instead of acting as leaders and making the most of their window of opportunity, they wasted it milking the stupid cow.

By the end of the year, that will change. And the local smartphone market shall look a bit smarter.

mot-bile 2009

Femtosat, but not seamless yet

Covering France has always been a headache for operators : unlike in the UK, population is very much dispersed, and 75 million visitors roam the country every year with a special fondness for bullet trains, mountain hiking, or kayaking down remote valleys.

Curing the great "digital divide" between broadband France and forsaken France became a national cause, local administrations pushing their own agendas to prevent businesses from leaving their regions, and national authorities forcing operators to pool resources in non-telecomly-strategic areas... As of today, total unbundling is available only in 30% of France Telecom POPs, and even Paris is struggling : rolling out FTTH remains a painstaking process from one old building to another.

As far as 3G is concerned, SFR is supposed to cover 90% of the population and 98% by 2012, but remains closer to 80%. Orange is not respecting its own obligations either. Bouygues Telecom ? even further downhill... Many wonder how potential newcomer Iliad Free could roll out a brand new nationwide 3G network...

But for the public, all 3 incumbents are seen as Scrooges : either of the Scrooge McDuck kind, sitting on a mountain of money and refusing to spend it, or of the Ebenezer Scrooge kind, bitterly sitting in the dark while everybody else expects Santa Claus Free Mobile for Christmas.

SFR obviously refused the role and announced two innovations for this week (for the moment, same brand but different worlds) :

=> a Satellite Internet Pack with Eutelsat (from EUR 29.90 / month for a not so broad band - max 3.6 Mbps and 4.7 GB -, but unlimited browsing between 11 pm and 7 am)

=> a femtocell quad play booster, Home 3G (via SHD, a.k.a. Société du Haut Débit, a SFR / Neuf Cegetel unit). Theoretically, Home 3G's EUR199 adaptor can be plugged on any ADSL box, but not all equipments will be compatible :



4 SFR 3G subscribers will be able to communicate at the same time on the same femtocell, but if they fully enjoy the service from day one, they may adapt their usage after receiving the first bill... and reconsider the virtues of the ADSL box they had in the first place.

Nevertheless, the best defense is a good offense, and being the first to strike at the macro and micro level necessarily paves the way for the next steps.

mot-bile 2009

Mating season for media : Steve & Ruppert / Time Inc, Conde Nast, Hearst & Meredith

Gossip of the day : Hearst heart Time heart Meredith heart Conde Nast. It heard it through the newsvine, or rather the NYT : "Group of Magazine Publishers Is Said to Be Building an Online Newsstand", the fabled "iTunes for magazines". The New York Times itself being an item on the Amazon Kindle platform*.

The previous day, the same NYT had a story about that flirt between Murdoch and Balmer : jealous of Google's curves, Baldy would like to keep the moghul's treasures for himself : only Bing would be able to reach inside its pages**.

In Korea, courting may turn predatorial : antitrust laws allow press groups to develop bigger TV channels. Big fishs are literally venturing into / vulturing around the pond.

The hate / love relationship between traditional media and new media remains in this transitional phase when nothing seems to be granted, even for major stars. No one seems to be sustainably bankable.

So major studios people tend to cling to behaviors they feel comfortable with : investing in the latest technologies to appear up to date, promising blockbusters with Ocean's Twenty Six castings... but they still have no script, no storyboard, and no director whatsoever.

So what they're basically trying to do is to put everybody together for one night in some sort of Kodak Theater, betting on favorable buzz outside and last minute deals inside, forcing smiles and spotlights to the point no outsider may notice the collection of butcher knives.


mot-bile 2009

* Speaking of platforms and music : Brian Stelter also mentions in his article YouTube's Vevo music video platform.
** "News Corp. Weighs an Exclusive Alliance With Bing" (NYT - 20091124)

Sonyntendows, beware : Freebox now a game console

mot-bile 2009 - First a set-top box remote control looking strangely like those you play basic videogames with on a boring flight, then some new games, now a developer toolkit... the gaming war is definitely on between French MSOs, and Free-Iliad wanted to shoot first, ahead of Xmas and of likely anouncements by SFR & friends (Universal). Ahead of December the 17th, too, the date when regulator ARCEP is expected to deliver its verdict for France's last 3G license.

Freebox should by no means be likely to compete with Sonyntendows (Sony, Nintendo, Microsoft). But as an enabler for low end gaming experiences, an emulator, it could have some impact. Game console manufacturers cannot expect to rule over The Big Screen as easily as they used to. Besides, The Big Screen is already as much a PC monitor as a game console monitor, when it's not already itself an internet enabled device.

The only question that seems to matter is the future of what is still called video game industry. Some day, players will have to move beyond the old PC/Mac - Sony/Nintendo/Microsoft - Java/BREW comedy. Without rejecting as false the choice between safety and ordeals.

More to come before Game Developers Conference 2010, next March in San Francisco.

Gizmo5 found its Google Voice

Skype owners were considering snatching Gizmo5 as a B plan, should the legal matters with founders turn nasty.

Turns out Gizmo5 had a G plan : Google showed them the money, made a star of founder Michael Robertson, and yes, "Google Welcomes Gizmo5".

Gizmo5 welcomes visitors on its website with the less enthusiastic "Gizmo5 Has Been Acquired by Google". Note that "New user signup has been suspended and will return when we re-launch" Gizmoogle6.

Now that it owns a PSTN entry point, Google Voice will probably make use of its Dark Force : the fabled "dark fiber" it's been piling up and laying out everywhere.

Now let's see how cellcos swallow this VoIP doubledecker.

2010 should be an interesting year for anti-Big G movements (i.e. in the book section, Google may face a global front after reaching an agreement with the US Authors Guild).

mot-bile 2009

iPhone Worm Raises Its Ugly Head : Rick Astley

Worse than I Love You ? Never Gonna Give You Up.

Rick Astley made history as the first iPhone worm... down under. Not in the charts, but in Oz land : victims are plagued with Astley wallpapers on their handsets*.

After Monty Python's SPAM, England brings us another laughingStock (Aitken, Waterman) for online generations to come : the ultimate musical junk from the 80s already gave its name to "Rickrolling".

Why Astley ? Because Ashley. "Ashley Towns, a 21 year-old unemployed programmer from Wollogong, Australia", guilty for creating the worm and furthermore, for his terrible musical taste.

mot-bile 2009


* "First IPhone Worm Spreads Rick Astley Wallpaper" (PCWorld - 20091108)

Free: alea jacta est

Unsurprisingly, Virgin Mobile / Numericable / Bollore & Co didn't bid for France's 4th 3G license*, leaving Free Mobile as the only official candidate.

"Free Mobile" is neither Free nor Iliad but a special vehicle (100% Iliad) likely to welcome new investors on board... should it win.

Losing a beauty contest of one would be embarrassing. Not finding MNOs eager to invest and bring some know-how after winning could be even more embarrassing.

ORASCOM dropped from the race earlier this month but remains as deep-pocketed as a few days ago. Other players stay tuned, including MVNOs.

French regulator ARCEP should give its verdict by Christmas. Free targets a Time To Market 18 months later.

French consumers also expect gifts from the new entrant, but incumbents will probably anticipate as well, donning brand new Santa Claus suits a few months before #4's arrival on the market.

mot-bile 2009

* see Iliad's 20091028 communique

In Google times, where are the operators ?

Google and Verizon Wireless will release several Android devices every year, starting with two in 2009 (courtesy HTC and Motorola), contributing to a global roaster of 18 gizmos for this OS.

Microsoft announced 30 Windows Mobile 6.5 devices by EOY 2009. It speaks volumes of Redmond's intentions to remain ahead of Apple in smartphones. Or to remain in smartphones altogether.

Ever the sexier BlackBerry announced the Storm of the century and new Curves.

Meanwhile, Kindle goes global : Amazon intends to become the worldwide cultural leader before Apple makes its splash in the ebook reader / app space.

We're talking platforms and OS but Amazon is into grocery, Google into advertising, Microsoft into healthcare (a cash cow for antivirus labs). BlackBerry ? A "manufactoperator" which somehow succeeded in opening itself without losing its consistency.

Nokia "pushes" Symbian as a Wikipedia style fundation, Palm "WebOS" as a more or less open platform (open as in up for grabs ?)... but the mojo seems to belong to the Open Handset Alliance, the movement supporting Android. Verizon Wireless is not even a member, and SonyEricsson could be jumping on board anytime soon, along with other nondescript manufacturers and operators.

The OS wars are not over. They're simply getting more boring. Differenciation will at last converge towards that forsaken player, the user.

3DTV, 2D screens, 1Dollar from the referee

Imagine the referee, in the middle of the game, paying from his own wallet new recruits to improve the quality of play.

In Korea, convergence is also about blending roles : mobile operators can become banks, and regulators invest directly in new technologies. Well, isn't it about regulating the pace of innovation ?

In that field, Korea Inc. usually needs to be cooled down but when it comes to 3DTV, the country's lagging behind Japan, even if LG released a product last summer.

So the KCC will invest KRW 2 bn (1,000 Korean wons = about USD .85 these days) to facilitate the first 3DTV commercial tests in the country in 2010. Too late for the World Cup ? Officials are rather mentioning the 2011 IAAF World Championships in Athletics, to be held home in Daegu (good PR), and the 2012 London Olympics. The actual target for worldwide recognition and mass market HDTV.

mot-bile 2009

AOL, Time, Warner

AOL keeps shopping at Google to prepare its spin off from Time Warner : Shashi Seth will be Senior VP of Global Advertising Products, serving under President Jeff Levick (formerly Google) and AOL CEO Tim Armstrong (formerly Google). AOL itself shall relocate its headquarters in Mountain View, CA (always Google).

Still mother company Time Warner is expected to get rid of its other "half" : a Capital Group director gave more than a few hints about a Time Inc. spin off, leaving basically Warner on its own.

OK. Warner Brothers (Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment, Inc. - wbie.com ) still have many gems, HBO, CNN, Warner Brothers Games or the newly formed DC Entertainment Inc., a superhero vehicle to counter the Disney-Marvel League. Furthermore, getting rid of paper along with the industry's massive (but everyday more cashless) flow now could land them on a green paper mattress of around half a dozen billion bucks or more (why not from Google, now that lifeless LIFE Magazine archives are on Google Books ?).

TIME may be struggling, the brand remains... timeless. And the Warner group would be brandless : its umbrella has already been torn away in 2004, when Warner Music Group left. That day, Edgar Bronfman, Jr. made a comeback Steve Case will never try - too much involved in mortarizing his native Hawai'i thanks to his clickally owned billions, and in his Case Foundation (basically, a foundation fundraising enabler - fooled me once...).

All major media / entertainment groups need to refocus, but this major is not really keeping a... major. I mean they more into distribution than media, more into production than creation, more into rights and franchises management than brand management. Harry Potter is a beautiful franchise and the final (double) movie will probably break all records but it's not as if they owned it. And Harry will neither resuscitate Warner, nor resuscitate, period.

Don't worry. Warner will stay afloat for awhile*. But I hope they have other ambitions than exposing "Adult Swim" to entertain us.


* particularly if they keep discarding BUs... need a broom with a (Mountain) view ?

iPhone wakes up Korean mobile internet market

Amazing : Korea, a world leader in mobile innovations in the early 2000s, Korea, still nowadays the land of broadband and home to such IT giants as Samsung and LG, Korea is lagging behind European countries in both IPTV and mobile internet.

As we saw with IPTV (see "IPTV in Korea, an update"), lobbying and regulation played an important part in this paradox, and the country is finally trying to fix the bug.

For mobile internet, the first opening came last year with the abandon of WIPI (Wireless Internet Platform for Interoperability) as the mandatory platform for smartphones, opening the market to Blackberry and other players. Today, we can hardly speak of a shift from an industry-based to a consumer-based regulation, but the Korea Communications Commission (KCC) just cleared the way for iPhone in Korea by stating that Apple, after all, doesn't need an extra license for Location-Based Services as long as there's a MNO with the relevant license in the loop.

KT is expected to launch the iPhone in the weeks to come (October or November), and to subsidize the device down to a retail price of around KRW 240,000 (about USD 200). Apple wants more than the 300,000 units announced by its Korean partner, who will have to release its own KT Apps Store ahead of the iPhone in order to mark its territory. In order to leverage on the operator's strong leadership in fixed and fixed wireless services, KT's apps will be downloadable by Wi-Fi.

Competitors have been bracing themselves for the iPhone, fearing market disruptions : wireless leader SK Telecom opened the first App Store earlier this month. But unfortunately, "T Store" has been bashed by the critic : users can browse as much as they want on their PC (tstore.co.kr - about 6,500 references), but can only download apps via their 3G phones, and via 3G only (not Wi-Fi). Worse : the price doesn't include connection costs ! Needless to say the service is WIPI-based : SKT is the mobile leader and bets on a wider installed based from the start. I can already see marketers scratch their heads : we want our customers to rediscover their own handsets and find them sexier than the ultimate hype machine... good luck ! Needless to say T Store won't remain WIPI-based : SKT plans to go "global" within two years and to generate a 1 trillion won turnover in 2013. If SKT maintains its 30% cut, we're talking about over half a billion bucks. And since SKT happens to be also a major content provider, that's a rather conservative estimation... provided the store succees, of course.

Korean developers will have fish to fry, as well as the editors' sectoral federations (ie games), in charge of okaying new apps. Furthermore, Microsoft is also roaming the country to snatch some gems (USD 19M planned for game developers over the next 4 years).

Netcos have been barred by cellcos but grow new ambitions, like NHN for its "web" brands. Beyond Naver, NHN wants to push Me2Day, a K-"twitter" acquired last year and already on iPhone.

Now How about endusers ?

Mobile TV is very popular but doesn't require 3G. And wireless internet echoes more Wi-Fi / WiBro than 3G. Even if half of the core target (12 to 59 year-olds) is somehow using services, mobile internet over 3G remains ways too expensive, and most players would like operators to slash connection costs, particularly to welcome revenues from social networking platforms. MNOs already had to undergo significant cuts in calling charges, but their rates remain high and the percentage of turnover made on wireless internet very low (below 20%) compared to advanced European nations (in the mid 30%s).

Usages are bound to soar once MNOs accept to share more with the rest of the ecosystem, to grow a much bigger pie. All together, now.

ADDENDUM 20090927

More precisions regarding the cuts in mobile charges (announced this week-end) :
- wireless internet basic rates : 50% reduction for LGT, 88% for KT. To be defined for SKT, but from next March on, the leader will calculate call charges per second (every 10 second now). note that Long Distance has disappeared in Korea : calls within Seoul and outside will cost the same. VoIP also gains ground, even if rates are not as slashed as in other countries (ie nothing is actually free).
- basic access fees slashed (KT : from KRW 30 to 24,000 - SKT : from 55 to 44,000)
- loyalty discounts (KT 5,000 / mo, SKT up to 22,000, LGT up to 25,000) - NB: all 3 MNOs have also triple play discounts. Logically, #3 LG Telecom (mobile portal brand : Oz) is the most aggressive player.

Amazon Basics : private label, low profile kick-off

If you visit Amazon.com store this week-end, Kindle remains on the top shelf of the Electronics section. The Top brand, with 171 references, is Amazon, but that's mostly Kindle stuff (the grey machine itself surrounded by more colorful accessories). No mention of AmazonBasics here.

If you want to get products from Amazon's new private label*, you have to type the direct URL amazon.com/AmazonBasics. And you'll get is really basics : blank media (ie DVD) and accessory cables branded Amazon. No-frills, smartly marketed as "Frustration-Free Packaging" ("a multi-year initiative designed to alleviate "wrap rage", featuring recyclable boxes that are easy to open and free of excess materials"). Even IKEA is more direct : we're just bringing the costs down, who cares if the packaging looks poor ?

Oviously, AmazonBasics is designed to alleviate Wrap rage from Amazon providers : we're not tapping your cash cow see ? We're only competing with your cheapest competitors, making up for the decrease in CD and DVD sales. For starters.

But everybody's got the message : we're there now. If Amazon becomes your "blank media" provider, and your "non blank media" publisher (ie CreateSpace), it can fill a few other blanks in the process.

Smarter products and services may follow.


* "Amazon.com Introduces AmazonBasics" (Amazon 20090919):

"We saw an opportunity to create a line of consumer electronics basics that combine quality and low prices for an overall focus on value," said Paul Ryder, vice president of Consumer Electronics for Amazon.com. "We drew on our history of developing other private-label brands and combined that with our mission to give customers the ultimate in selection and value. AmazonBasics is the result. We will continue to gather input from customers and evaluate opportunities for new products under the AmazonBasics brand. We aim to offer our customers as wide a selection as possible, and we think AmazonBasics makes a great addition to the brands we already carry."

Gotcha ! Google learns to read with reCAPTCHA

If you leave a comment on this page, chances are you'll face a CAPTCHA box. This "Completely Automated Public Turing test to tell Computers and Humans Apart" prevents robots from spamming. If you pass the test, you'll face a human being, Yours Truly. And since my platform is Blogger (a Google unit), CAPTCHA provider will eventually be reCATCHA, the company purchased by Google yesterday.

Each time Microsoft or Google snatches a start-up, conspiration theorists try to decypher the CAPTCHA, as in "Completely Automated Private Takeover to tear Competitors and Humans Apart".

This time, Google provides the key on its blog* : they need the technology to capture our own know how in text recognition for its own document scanning processes, most notably for Google Books, which recently claimed a spectacular partnership with one of its former opponents, the Bibliotheque Nationale de France.

Who knows ? The system could also boost other applications in the long run... Writing to speech ? At times I'd love to find a tool to decypher my own scribbles.




* "Teaching computers to read: Google acquires reCAPTCHA" (20090916) :

" Computers find it hard to recognize these words because the ink and paper have degraded over time, but by typing them in as a CAPTCHA, crowds teach computers to read the scanned text"

ADDENDUM 20090919

Since this post received yesterday a visit from Carnegie Mellon Algorithms and Complexity Theory Group, I shall add, for full recognition, that reCAPTCHA happens to be a spinoff of Carnegie Mellon University’s Computer Science Department.

Crouching Snow Leopard, Hidden Booklet

According to GfK, Apple knocked Nokia out of the second spot in France last July : Samsung still led with 27% of the market (in value), but Apple reached 25%, leaving Nokia far behind with 16.9%. In volumes, the Samsung - Nokia - LG trio (36.1% - 21.7% - 12.1%) remains well ahead of Apple (8%).
As we saw earlier (ie "Nokia's Ovi Store - a follower-leader"), the Cupertino brand's rise as a power player in smartphones met surprisingly little resistance from the Finnish giant.

But Apple is not neglecting its original business. Snow Leopard upgrades come for as cheap as $29, sending the right message to people stuck to Windows or considering Windows 7 : don't think of it as just a one shot operation but a completely different customer experience and value proposition, guys. We're cheaper, upgrading is cheaper with us, and guess what, upgrading can even free some space on your laptop !

It would be cruel to mention Nokia's $850 Booklet 3G Netbook after that but I have to. Maybe it's a good product. It has all the connectivity and security you can dream of, but it's very expensive.

So is this asymetrical war over ?

No : Nokia has the global power to refresh parts other manufacturers cannot reach, and enough brain to consider hiring new marketers. Furthermore, Apple is enjoying the success of one line of devices, very much the way it did back in the eighties. It is not fit to lead in technology, design will pass away, and the Apps editor / retailer dimension is becoming less and less differentiating. Differentiation itself is getting more and more challenging. Besides, Apple will not win the OS war, and this time he will not be defeated by a quasi-monopoly : the industry shall settle for commoditization on a more open basis... preferably not Google's Android but some may go for the quick fix, anything to get outta here.

That said, in the short term and medium term, Apple's position remains definitely more comfortable than rivals who keep planting seeds everywhere, bracing themselves for the next champions from China.

Umbrellapps : iPhone but you can't VoIP

James W. Cicconi wrote a letter to Ruth Milkman on August 21, 2009, received on the same day (confirmation # 2009821776906).

In "AT&T Response to Wireless Telecommunications Bureau Letter, DA 09-1737 (July 31, 2009); RM-11361; RM-11497", Senior Executive Vice President, External and Legislative Affairs, AT&T notified Chief Wireless Telecommunications Bureau, Federal Communications Commission a few things:

- We read in the paper that Google Voice application to the Apple App Store had been rejected. AT&T was not consulted by Apple in the decision process.

- BTW : what is "Google Voice" anyway ? What lies behind that strange "umbrellapp" ? We had a quick look at their website and "'Google Voice' appears to be an umbrella term used to describe a collection of different services". Interesting, isn't it ? "AT&T expects that Google will provide a complete description of Google Voice in response to the letter it received from the Commission and we look forward to learning more about Google Voice based on that response".

- Maybe it has something to do with that other "Google Voice application specifically for BlackBerry devices, which AT&T customers may download from the Google Voice website. AT&T does not disable access to or use of this application". Who knows ? Anyway, any AT&T customer may use Google Voice on his or her iPhone without passing by that store, via web browsing. So maybe AT&T did some research on this weird app after all.

- AT&T and Apple do discuss about App services, including with third parties, to fix technical issues. And AT&T does have its say sometimes : "AT&T has discovered applications in the Apple App Store (after they had been approved by Apple) that raised concerns about the potential misuse of certain AT&T services or customer information. AT&T alerted Apple to our concerns and, in two cases, Apple referred AT&T directly to the application providers to discuss whether the concerns could be resolved. In the third case, AT&T understands that Apple addressed the matter with the application provider".

- and oh. "AT&T and Apple have an agreement regarding Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) functionality. Apple also is aware that AT&T’s wireless data terms and conditions prohibit subscribers from redirecting television signals." So we put on the same level VoIP and TV broadcasting. Maybe AT&T doesn't want VoIP because DRM issues are not solved yet for private conversations. Go figure...

- come to think of it, Amazon made a similar trade-off with its Kindle : no voice, but no monthly charge for connectivity. So not adding calling feature to an ebook reader would be equivalent to preventing a smartphone from making smart calls.


Here I want to mark a pause and applaud the poet(s) who wrote this beautiful sentence : "It is widely recognized by economists and jurists that parties to strategic alliances in competitive markets may enter into contracts to promote and protect their respective business interests and to refrain from taking actions adverse to those interests."

You liked it too ? There's a bit more of it until the next comma : "Consistent with such lawful, economically efficient practices common among parties to strategic alliances, including participants in the mobile wireless marketplace,". Now AT&T can deliver the news : "AT&T and Apple agreed that Apple would not take affirmative steps to enable an iPhone to use AT&T’s wireless service (including 2G, 3G and Wi-Fi) to make VoIP calls without first obtaining AT&T’s consent. AT&T and Apple also agreed, however, that if a third party enables an iPhone to make VoIP calls using AT&T’s wireless service, Apple would have no obligation to take action against that third party."

So basically AT&T and Apple agreed on a block of all VoIP applications on iPhones, except via exotic Wi-Fi access.

VoIPoiPhone ? Not OK

VoIPoWiFi ? OK, even on iPhone

VoIPoiCantSeeHowRightNowButSomewhereaGeekMayFindAWay ? Try me, but don't sue me.

Nokia Maemo 5 - Nokia RX-51

Paparazzi keep spamming the media with quasi official pictures of Carla-Nicolas romantic summer, or sneak peeks of Sylvio with Noemi, Patrizia, Maria, Claudia, Anna, Loretta, Rosetta, Carla (another one), Alessandra, Donatella, Paola...

Geeks prefered to browse* snapshots of Nokia RX-51, a.k.a. Nokia Maemo 5, a slim linux-based tablet that can take photos and probably call.

The Maemo community (maemo.org) claims 16,000 registered members and 700 projects. A far cry from Symbian, but Nokia is first of all into manufacturing phones that sell, and they are also working with Intel on oFono (ofono.org - open source telephony).


* ie on engadget : "Nokia RX-51 tablet captured in the wild"

Star fees and Hutch

Hutchison Whampoa is selling its 51% participation in Partner Communications (to Scailex), which seems to make sense as far as geography and marketing are concerned :

- the Israeli operation carried the Orange brand

- the group operates in Europe and Asia-Pacific :
. via "3" : Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, Sweden, UK, and Australia (the new 50/50 Vodafone Hutchison Australia JV runs both Vodafone and "3" brands),
. via Hutchison Telecom International Limited / HTIL : Indonesia as "3", Sri Lanka and Thailand as "Hutch", and Vietnam as Vietnamobile
. via HTIL's spin off Hutchison HK Holdings / HTHKH : Hong-Kong & Macau as "3".

"Hutch" as a brand has been dead ever since the group sold its participation in India (see "3GSM 2007 - A brave new World ? A new and improved Vodafone ?/em>"). Lately, Sri Lanka and Thailand operations have been struggling in most unstable contexts. HWL shall either try to dump them or to switch to "3", as the hybrid logo in Thailand seem to tell. Without India (now Vodafone Essar), Sri Lanka has a relatively limited potential : 20 million inhabitants vs 63 for Thailand, 86 for Vietnam, and of course 237 for Indonesia.

Switching from CDMA to GSM in Vietnam costs a lot. Rolling out networks in emerging countries costs a lot. Competing in the handset arena, even with smart solutions*, costs a lot. Running operations in highly competitive, saturated markets in Europe as well as Hong Kong, costs a lot. And this conglomerate is not as ripe with cash as it used to be.

Rumor has it more dividends could be shed. Such a counterproductive heresy should be counterbalanced with counterproductive promises of productivity increases. Depending on a financial holding can be such a drag.


* Facebook, Skype, and now Twitter shortcuts : after the INQ1, the group announced the INQ Mini 3G, along with a INQ Chat 3G with a full keyboard