MSN, Mobile Centric, Mobisud

In the latest Orange - Microsoft deal, France Telecom's DNA prevailed over Hans Snook's. France Telecom the incumbent and former monopoly, not France Telecom, the brilliant innovator and solutions provider, father of the CNET (now France Telecom R&D).
Competitors can worry now that two major predators team up in the convergence arena. They're meaning business, market share and furthermore, share of client.
Bouygues Telecom remains a Microsoft partner, but with a less exciting revenue sharing deal and a smaller pie to share. And don't count on i-mode for a long lasting differenciation. Convergence ? Sorry lads, rival SFR keeps an eye on your pal Neuf cegetel (as a strong minority shareholder and a friendly M-VNO host for Neuf Mobile) while building an ADSL offer on the ashes of Tele2 France.
"Mobile Centric" SFR also promotes its own SFR Messenger and a teletubby-sounding Happy Zone. Cute, but will this stop pervasive MSN and ubiquitous unik ?
In a cross continental move, Vivendi is building a telecommunity MVNO on SFR's network through another subsidiary, Maroc Telecom. MobiSud* will naturally serve France's strong Moroccan community as a start, but Telefonica should expect quite a few skirmishes accross the Mediterranean ring.

* dot fr or dot com ? Both have recently been locked, the latter by the adco JumpFrance.

AT&T U-Verse 1 - better than chapter 11

Born again AT&T introduced its U-verse concept at the 2005 CES, with the ambition of covering 18M homes by the end of 2008. FTTH IPTV services only started late last month in 5,000 homes in San Antonio, TX with the help of Verizon's FiOS network.
This offer would look rather disappointing to Korean eyes and wallets : no more than 6 megs, up to $120 per month for a wireless bundle... but hey that's a start and ain't that much competition in SBC's 13-state-wide kingdom, so let early adopters finance innovation.

AT&T already rules in SBCland with 7.4M ADSL lines, but they intend to reach 100% in broadband coverage thanks to various fibers in urban areas, satellite broadband in rural areas (Project Lightspeed is supposed to reach 5.5M low-income households by the end of 2009), and fixed wireless (WiMAX a top pick) to fill the blanks.

The first 13 states before the whole country... this state of the AT&T-SBC union address should resonate as a warning to competing superpowers : we're not only focusing on homeland security ; we're also preparing preemptive strikes everywhere. But the old Texan way : we don't want to make it sound like an aggression, so no need to add "bring it on".

I also find rather clever their partnership with Yahoo! and Verizon Wireless "for a generation of tech-savvy consumers who rely on the Internet and wireless phones as their primary communications tools" (to wit : the smart ones who are leaving the incumbent - a speechless and voiceless carrier). AT&T position themselves as a central integrator of services : we help you subscribe to AT&T Yahoo! High Speed Internet, and to Verizon Wireless as well if you need a wireless service, but you can still chose AT&T for voice services at home. Beyond the usual "free" LLO services (Call Waiting, Three-Way Calling, Call Forwarding...), the AT&T CallVantage package proposes well marketed bonuses :
- Call Logs (with "click to dial")
- Do Not Disturb (only emergency calls pass through)
- Personal Conferencing (10 people overall)
- Locate Me (when you're away from home, incoming calls track you by ringing up to five phones all at once or one right after the other)
- Web-Based Voice Mail (AT&T just couldn't not include it in such an offer)

Why is it so interesting ? I'm not sure it will work, but it's neither some double-stage VoIP thing like Skype, nor an ugly plug-in like Vonage's latest USB gizmo. It's a truly operated service from a genuine operator or better, a Virtual Network Operator on its own network. It's both a win-back and a win-period approach, an attempt to sublimate voice services and fully give them their value back. I wish it weren't that expensive and I wish it could go beyond fixed and mobile, and even beyond the now traditional homezone concept.

J:COM's quadruple play - within the fence

"J:COM Mobile powered by WILLCOM" will start on March the 1st, 2006. J:COM customers will naturally get a discount fee, and the second line will cost them 2,000 yens instead of 2,500. "WILLCOM Flat-Rate" and "Toku-Toku Talk" plans are also meant to boost multiple subscriptions and intra-customer base traffic. Handsets are of course provided by Kyocera, a major Willcom shareholder.
J:COM aim for a "grand slam" on a relatively medium sized ball park ; a little more than 2M subs overall end of 2005 (3.5M for Willcom) : TV 1.8M (of which 650k digital), internet 911k, telephony 970k. Their homes-passed potential stands at 7.89M.
DoCoMo & co are not facing a power hitter either : J:COM Mobile are a 2G PHS M-VNO. A few hundreds of thousands of subs and a local flavor could mean a sustainable business model. For J:COM, that is : in the long run, WILLCOM must find a way out of 2G... or rather into 3G.
Japan's new 3Greenfield operators should be open to partnerships with wireless players bringing a few million customers along. After being awarded their licenses, IPmobile have remained relatively silent while the other two didn't seem to waste their time.
Significantly, Fidelity Investments Japan Limited just took 11.41% of eAccess last January. A few weeks earlier, eMobile would welcome aboard another financial partner : Goldman Sachs Group. But other players joined too, including Yoshimoto Kogyo Co., Ltd, a specialist in entertainment contents. eMobile keep the same TTM target : data services by the end of next fiscal year and voice services one year later.
BB Mobile Corp (Softbank) announced a nationwide mobile broadcasting service by 2012. That will be 5 years after 3G launch but content has already been locked : Softbank's Yahoo! BB are massively doping their movies, music and games portals for IPTV and other screens.
And yes, both BB & e keep talking about WIMAX... Obviously, a xDSL-3G TDD combo is not enough.
But still, there's no shame in drafting minor league cable-PHS customers for pre-season training.

See also : "3Greenfield Japan" (20051113)
J-Com : http://www.jcom.co.jp
eMobile : http://www.emobile.jp

Cloned cell... phones in Korea

Dispite HWANG Woo-Suk's disgrace, Korea remains the world leader in cell cloning... Cell phones, that is.
The MIC's Central Radio Management Office already seized 860 cloned cell phones in 2004 - they scored an amazing 6,600 for 2005. We're talking actual stem cells : cloners steal serial phone numbers and use them with stolen handsets.
This shift from Hello Moto to Hello Dolly appears unethical, but not so difficult thanks to Doc Jacobs' unsecure CDMA technology. So I'm affraid this Hanryuwood remake of Star Wars Episode II - Attack of the Clones shan't play at a theater near you if you live in a GSM area.
Yet, T-Mobile, who expect their 3G inside laptops to mushroom in 2006, will face another kind of cell duplication phenomenon : Mushroom Networks and WiBoost Inc will peer-to-peerly help individuals share their DSL home connections with their friends and neighbors. If you operate a DSL joint, the "Got mushrooms ?" moto will resonate like a fairly bad trip.

Free WIMAX and quadruple play

Iliad remains a great wonder in the ever consolidating telecom world. When the minitel specialist launched its disruptive None Networks in the late 90s, I must confess I didn't think they could last very long. Freesbee (now the triple-and-soon-quadruple player Free) looked like the kind of free ISPs the founders would sell right before the bubble burst.
But they're damn good at what they do and since they're actually free, they don't have to cope with international partners and don't care about standardization* : they can go straight to the point with the solution they need, even if they have to develop it for themselves. The Freebox was the ultimate proof of their ability to deliver the goods - even technically tricky ones - with a very aggressive TTM. From an ADSL2+ basis, they recently reached 174 / 18 Mbit rates with a home made "F-ADSL". "Asynchronous" ? You bet, from a competitor's point of view. And it shows in the "Digital Subscriber Lines" : two thirds of Free's 1.5M ADSL customers (France Telecom's main challenger) can enjoy TV over DSL (Europe's leader). Following the deal with Altitude Telecom, Free enjoys a nationwide Wimax license and announces disruptive quadruple play offers... nothing seems to stop them. Hell, thanks to Michaël Boukobza's well deserved aura, Iliad even survived a nasty scandal involving its founder Xavier Niel.
2006 looks like another make or break year and could turn out to be both the best and the worst year to confront France's big guys : the 3 MNOs have just been heavily fined for anti-competitive behaviors and the broadcasting landscape is being totally reshuffled after the CanalSat - TPS deal.
Guess what ? All could face yet another disruptive new entrant.

Virgin Mobile - Carphone Warehouse : joint adventure ?

The announcement of a new Virgin Mobile M-VNO operation in France means quite a lot.
First, France is at last becoming the exciting market for convergence it was meant to be : home to FT/Orange (from the beginning the ultimate vision of convergence) and key players in multimedia (ie press, radio, TV, movie, music, minitel/internet...) as well as in retail or commerce-finance (ie Carrefour, banks & insurers...), the country is Europe's TV over DSL leader but still enjoys a significant potential for growth in the mobile and pay TV fields. Here, the Orange vs Vodafone battle has a very specific flavor and historical / capitalistic ties between MNOs and TV operators have to be taken into account (Bouygues Telecom / TF1, SFR / Canal+, Orange / France Television and now M6...).
Second, a JV between Virgin Mobile Holdings (UK) PLC, The Carphone Warehouse Group PLC (The Phone House in France), and Virgin Management Limited proves both how desperate Virgin were to enter the market and how ambitious they are for the future. The Virgin group isn't a big player in the country and clearly, VirginMega.fr seems too weak an entry point as M6, NRJ & co are locking positions. They couldn't deal directly with a MNO and they had to find a partner with a retail background. Since they cannot wait, they're pushing their brand and TTM over control. In the wireless field, that is : they're bringing the multimedia touch The Phone House didn't have (sorry AOL - whatever happened to MVIVA and Steve Case's Revolution ?). Now that they've secured a 5M customer base in the UK, Virgin are attacking continental Europe.
Third, how far can CWH and Virgin go together ? CWH is more a reseller than a M-VNO, even if TPH could learn the trade locally through their Omer Telecom / Breitzh Mobile outfit (49,000 customers to date). There is a point of sale overlap in the UK but elsewhere... CWH need both content and a brand and VM badly need a brand new telecom-aware distribution system...

TDD & TDMB, not so TDous

After all, TDMB still has a chance in Europe. Part of the lobbying I mentioned about LG is about the easiness of piggybacking on existing DAB networks, whilst DVB spectrum remains to be seen. And LG are starting this month a T-DMB trial in Regensburg, Germany, supposedly under the helm of the EU IST CELTIC Project, CELTIC standing for Cooperation for a European sustained Leadership In Telecommunications. I guess Nokia appreciates the joke, especially since they are part of CELTIC's Core Group (the same can be said about BT, FT or Telefonica). And CELTIC's "Call 2 projects tackling convergence" still includes WingTV, a program devoted to Nokia's DVB-UMTS integration. Fixed incumbents are already involved in such trials, but they are also busy taking shares of IPTV market as quickly as possible in a competitive DSL world. France Telecom's MaLigne TV could go international with a more colorful branding (the color of a juicy fruit, for instance), and Telefonica's Imagenio could leverage on the operator's reconquista of the Americas. Mobile broadcasters will be stronger if they already are strong IPTV leaders...
TD-CDMA have been back from the dead for months : Orange in France, T-Mobile in the Czech Republic, Nextel in Washington D.C.... even Japan reserved the 2GHz spectrum for IP Wireless' beloved technology. TDD could prove a quick fix for such US players as Sprint-Nextel or T-Mobile : W-CDMA is on its way (in different bands) and the HSDPA -HSUPA have the favor of many GSM players, but TDD could deliver earlier and cheaper coverage without major spectrum hurdles (especially compared to demanding HSUPA). Beyond data cards or dongles, handsets are yet to be found, and the industry needs more than IPW partnerships with Atmel or Teleca to solve this.

Open Spheres, Personal Spheres, Shared Spheres and Safe Heavens

The fierce debate between Qualcomm's Dr Irwin Mark Jacobs and Forrester's George F. Colony at Seoul Digital Forum 2005 somehow seems reminiscent of the early 2000s war between Bill "Pervasive Computing" Gates and Jorna "Mobility Rules" Ollila.
Why oppose the PC vision to the mobile age mantra ? Broadband Korea proves the handset remains relevant in a VDSL home advertised on TV with the intel inside jingle. Instead of talking about "X-Internet" (for extended internet), Colony should consider dropping the obsolete "PC" term : the PC as we know it is as dead as the mobile phone, long life to the Hubs.
Let's forget hardware and consider the spheres we live in : the Open Spheres, the Shared Spheres, the Personal Spheres often blur and sometimes use the same device (ie the various users environments of a shared home hub), the mobility factor being yet another dimension. In this wild wall-less world, one of the key issue remains security. That's where your most personal device can actually become a key, the kind you never leave far away from you. But not a universal one either (the so-called universal remote control) : not that many people put their car keys on the same ring as their home keys and even fewer would hook both to their mobile phones.
Another spot (or maze of spots) you want to consider is what I would call your Safe Heaven, where you keep your valuables. It can be a portable vault and/or a few remote servers but it's somewhere on the map and you can't afford excluding it from your closest environment.
Even if you balk in front of the one-stop-logging perspective (and you do have a point there), this cloud of references is as consistent as your self, as unique as your fingerprints, your ultimate ID.
Please don't let anyone - and certainly no corporation - steal your DNA (Digital Networking Agility) nor even do any kind of research on it.