Motorola's Android Tablet : Focus On TV (Apple, Amazon, Others Watching)

Motorola and Android have already met, but Motorola and tablets are a new item.

The 10 inch screen device would be bundled with Verizon FiOS TV (pay-TV) service, which makes perfect sense. Much more sense than say Nokia, to name a fabled marketing counter-example... Let's see how rivals will move, for instance how Samsung will position its own Android tablet, smaller in size but with a screen of potentially much better quality, and a better grasp at personal computing.

But this is first about entertainment, and Verizon takes and interesting shot in the convergence barnum. Most quadplay operators across the World have necessarily been, if not working on, at least thinking about a "tabletish" gizmo to complete the set of home / away screens, and if people start (for instance) massively and legally downloading and watching movies with an Android 3.0 / 3G ticket on their tablet this November, xmas season looks fine...

Except maybe for Amazon : expect even more push marketing until then... unless of course Jeff Bezos manages to stevejobs a new Kindle feature high up into the buzzosphere.


mot-bile 2010

VoIP over 3G, unlimited data... SK Telecom victim of the summerheat wave ?

SK Telecom is lobbying in favor of a more open regulation for mobile Voice over IP in Korea : instead of being only legal on Wi-Fi, it would be authorized on 3G as well. SKT would then provide the service through Skype-like solutions - actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see some Google inside (see "Gizmo5 found its Google Voice"), and consumers would only pay for the data (not to mention fees from the app provider).

OK OK. There's a catch : data rates are pretty expensive in Korea.

Well, not so much now : SK Telecom also announced an unlimited data plan for all subs with a data package of over KRW 55,000 (about USD 45) per month. That would be for smartphone holders, but as far as I know, you can use your smartphone as a modem for greedier devices.

Alright. Here is a small operator struggling for market share, desperate to win big customers, and not worried about network capacity.

Wait a minute. SKT is by far the leader of Korea's (saturated) market, with about 51% of the pie. SKT does not sell iPhones like AT&T, whose success with Apple forced a spectacular backpedaling on unlimited data plans, but SKT is doing pretty well with Samsung Galaxy S (over 300,000 units sold for this Android handset in Korea). Its position doesn't seem that much threatened in the short term.

But what looks like a desperate defensive move following data rate cuts by competitors is also an aggressive move on convergence / quadplay offers (or is it pentaplay, now that the battle rages on wi-fi hotspots ?). Voice ? A commodity, sooner than later - losing a big customer altogether would cost me much more. And guess what ? Ultra-Broadband Convergence Network (UBcN) is around the corner (that's to say 2013 but blocks are bigger around here).

Still, unlimited data plans are a very risky bet in "ubiquitous Korea".


mot-bile 2010

Femtosat, but not seamless yet

Covering France has always been a headache for operators : unlike in the UK, population is very much dispersed, and 75 million visitors roam the country every year with a special fondness for bullet trains, mountain hiking, or kayaking down remote valleys.

Curing the great "digital divide" between broadband France and forsaken France became a national cause, local administrations pushing their own agendas to prevent businesses from leaving their regions, and national authorities forcing operators to pool resources in non-telecomly-strategic areas... As of today, total unbundling is available only in 30% of France Telecom POPs, and even Paris is struggling : rolling out FTTH remains a painstaking process from one old building to another.

As far as 3G is concerned, SFR is supposed to cover 90% of the population and 98% by 2012, but remains closer to 80%. Orange is not respecting its own obligations either. Bouygues Telecom ? even further downhill... Many wonder how potential newcomer Iliad Free could roll out a brand new nationwide 3G network...

But for the public, all 3 incumbents are seen as Scrooges : either of the Scrooge McDuck kind, sitting on a mountain of money and refusing to spend it, or of the Ebenezer Scrooge kind, bitterly sitting in the dark while everybody else expects Santa Claus Free Mobile for Christmas.

SFR obviously refused the role and announced two innovations for this week (for the moment, same brand but different worlds) :

=> a Satellite Internet Pack with Eutelsat (from EUR 29.90 / month for a not so broad band - max 3.6 Mbps and 4.7 GB -, but unlimited browsing between 11 pm and 7 am)

=> a femtocell quad play booster, Home 3G (via SHD, a.k.a. Société du Haut Débit, a SFR / Neuf Cegetel unit). Theoretically, Home 3G's EUR199 adaptor can be plugged on any ADSL box, but not all equipments will be compatible :



4 SFR 3G subscribers will be able to communicate at the same time on the same femtocell, but if they fully enjoy the service from day one, they may adapt their usage after receiving the first bill... and reconsider the virtues of the ADSL box they had in the first place.

Nevertheless, the best defense is a good offense, and being the first to strike at the macro and micro level necessarily paves the way for the next steps.

mot-bile 2009

SK Telecom's Semestrus Horribilis

The light at the end of the tunnel ?

Starting August 8, Hanarotelecom will offer quad play bundles featuring synergies with its new owner SK Telecom (probably under the SK Broadband brand). Telemarketing operations, suspended following a scandal over personal information leaks, are to resume August 11.

When SKT integrated it last February 22, Hanarotelecom claimed a 24.6% market share for broadband internet subscriptions (3.6M, 1M of which FTTH : 100Mbps optical LAN network coverning over 12M households), and 8.9% for fixed telephony (2M lines).

SKT paid a dear price for this, not to mention a few obligation imposed by the regulator (to open their mobile internet gates beyond Nate, to share access to their 800MHz frequencies, to invest massively in suburban networks...), and legal consequences of the personal information scandal. SKT considers suing former shareholders Newbridge and AIG for not mentioning this practice :
Hanarotelecom has been massively losing customers (even on the booming IPTV market : Hana TV has lost 50,000 customers over H1 2008 while KT's Mega TV gained 220,000 and myLGtv 70,000), thousands are filing for a class action suit, and even more through direct channels.

After a first half of 2008 which saw local rivals KTF and LG Telecom revive, US rival Virgin absorb Helio, and such brands as TU media and T struggle, SK Telecom has an opportunity to redeem itself, provided it delivers the goods and wages the convergence wars as a respectful leader.

A disruptive move would be to boost VoIP on a market that lags behind many others, to the risk of endangering voice revenues even in the mobile business. It's time to leverage on SKT's already multiplatform services and to restore some of the brand's fun factor.

Orange has its rights, Orange has it right

Two good points for Orange :

- a greater share of French soccer rights : beyond the mobile rights it already earned in the previous contest, VOD and saturday night games should prove great teasers for the other sides of its quad play offers. Orange Sports is likely to become a better known and respected brand.

- a strategical partnership with Samsung for satellite TV broadcasting (DTH, probably via Eutelsat's Hotbird, but not on a wire) : 1 to 1.5 million sets (PVR + HD tuner) are expected from the begining. UK, Poland and Spain could follow France.

If Canal+ secured its lion's share in both soccer rights and satellite accesses, Vivendi is definitely facing a much tougher challenger...

... and all three French MNOs are now enjoying a strong TV flavor to better face a potential new entrant on their core market (see "3G license part III - France's fourth wedding or a funeral ?"- 20070309).

Near Failed Communications

Can you hear me ?

Qualcomm makes sure everybody heard about PCCW's MediaFLO trial. From May 14 to November 13, 2007 (including the kick off of the 2007-2008 Premier League season, a PCCW exclusivity), the Hong Kong leader will try "to assess the potential business model of a commercial mobile television service based on MediaFLO - an open, mobile broadcasting technology - if such a service were to be launched in Hong Kong".
The service will be launched, all right. With or without Qualcomm is another story, but PCCW is willing, as Vodafone would say, to make the best of now TV. This quadplayer is already a TVNO (PCCW Media Limited) and a TV-VNO (PCCW-HKT Telephone Limited), and now TV claims 800,000 subs and 130 channels 4 years after launch (September 2003).

Can you see me ?

SK Telecom introduced their "3G+ Streaming Video Customer Center" to Korea's 160,000 hearing-impaired people. In such a competitive market, the niche is big enough to justify a specific answer, not to mention the obvious PR / image benefits.
SKT clearly mean go beyond appearances : 4,100 W120 streaming video-enabled handsets donated in April 2006, consultations Monday to Friday 9 AM to 6 PM free of charge with operators trained for all the needed languages (and the possibility of streaming video chatting), SMS transmission rates and call traffic rates offered, 35% discount off monthly flat rates...
The path is difficult : "to date, about 1,800 customers are able to use the streaming video service". Not even 5% of the 36,600 hearing-impaired people registered to the regular SK Telecom Customer Center...

Can you copy me ?

5 years after IPO, Yahoo! hired Terry Semel as their top gun. 6 years later, Jerry Yang takes his job back.
Yahoo! failed to compete with Google, but the incumbent gets ready for new bold strategic moves / partnerships / sales / all of the above.
If I were Big G, I'd be careful of the Airbus Syndrom.

Can you read me ?

Wibree joins the Bluetooth SIG - less tooth grinding for Nokia's researchers. So long babee wibro wanabeee.
The NFC Forum just e-mailed me some very disruptive news : unlike the rest of my daily spam, their previous e-mail couldn't reach my mailbox. Near Failed Communications ?

Still looking for the sign "Big bucks stop here".

3GSM 2007 - A brave new World ? A new and improved Vodafone ?

This week, Vodafone decided to send a few messages to the market :
- Purchase of Hutchison Essar ($11.7bn for a 67% controlling stake... provided Essar doesn't launch a counterattack tainted with economic patriotism*) : I intend to remain in the World's top 3 operators for subscribers and I'm gonna post exciting growth rates for the years to come. Certainly not for ARPU but I'm investing for the long term. And by the way : I'm still able to invest for higher purposes than the loyalty of my shareholders.
- Another deal with Orange on 3G network sharing : I prefer to invest on CAPEX in India where it will make a difference. I'm bracing for a fiercer competition in mature markets, where I will focus on service.
- An impressive collection of old and new partnerships with almost all major web players (Google for mapping, Yahoo! and Microsoft for IM, YouTube, eBay, MySpace...) : you think these newcomers are smarter and swifter, and you believe they will get the bulk of the value but look ! everybody wants to work with me and I'm certainly not begging for partners. They know who's ruling the game and you don't want to miss this train or else...

At last the big red machine decides to move. But I cannot see much disruption out there. It actually looks like their last smart move in Turkey, only at a bigger scale. I'd like to have more movements in the home / office spheres. Beyond WCDMA900, that is (Nokia providing UMTS900 for SFR after Portugal and Finland). To be continued...

Otherwise, 2007 doesn't look like a year for new paradygms :
- Qualcomm still wants to be the King of the Universe, but its Universal Broadcast Modem (UBM) combines MediaFLO technology, DVB-H and 1seg / ISDB-T without caring much for DMB... a slap on the wrist for those naughty koreans who want to kick it out of their country.
- Quadplays are getting mainstream. The Virgin-NTL combo, Virgin Media, charges £20 for 2, £30 for 3 and £40 for the first no-frills quads (the 125 pound gorilla offers unlimited calls in the fixed arena and 500 mn of mobile babbling plus a monthly data package including £60 in airtime and 1,000 SMS, along with the hardware - handset and PVR). Virgin Mobile will also strengthten its controlled distribution.
- Either terrified by Viviane Reding or cornered by an ever tougher competition, O2 extends My Europe to 31 countries. For £10 per month or £60 per year, business subscribers to My Europe Extra won't be charged for incoming calls whatever the network on which they are roaming. Intraeuropean calls will cost 25p per mn flat.

That could be the best news for 2007 (but for MNO shareholders) : the landline / mobile gap in calling rates is bound to decrease even before VoIP gets fully mobile. The competition goes beyond mobility and furthermore, from the customer's point of view, that's the minimum you could expect from convergence in a broadband world.


* Voda downsizes its participation in Bharti but still keeps a few toes in the venture.

embedded 3G+ and better rates

Strategy Analytics expects a 60% boom for embedded 3G in 2007.
Wi-Fi has already found its slot on laptops*, WiMAX's democratization will take some time, and 3G offers the best bitrate / security / continuity of service mix around.
In the transitional period before the industry adopts embedded connectivity, PC cards will not be as trendy as they used to. USB modems are cool and more consumer-oriented. Less PC-oriented, too, since more devices are to become 3G enabled. SKT proved it last year (with T Login**), KTF a few days ago (with iPlug, a SBSM - Single Band Single Mode - W-CDMA service), and Verizon Wireless today (launching its EV-DO Revision A service with the Novatel USB720 modem announced last year).
Laptops are definitely ripe for embedded 3G and if possible, embedded HSDPA. W-CDMA was too light for many applications run on a laptop, and HSDPA keeps rocking and rolling across the globe. Even in Korea, the country formerly known as Qualcommland, where LGT will launch EV-DO Rev A during the second half : both SKT and KTF are dumping cdma2000 for the W-CDMA - HSDPA - HSUPA - HSOPA roadmap, both will enjoy a nationwide HSDPA coverage this year, and both mean business.
KTF, for example, did launch iPlug with a USB data card, but intends to HSDPA-enable 50% of its handset line-up this year and 90% next year. KTF will have migrated half of its customer base from CDMA to W-CDMA and beyond by 2008 and 100% by 2012.
There is already a fierce competition in subsidies, and data rates should follow soon. SK Telecom just decided to reduce the data fee ceiling (and the level from which benefits are given) from 200 to KRW 150,000, and to slash its "Ting Data Free" flat data rates for teenagers by 30%. Officially, heavy bills deter many customers giving it a try without a flat rate offer (a generally binding and expensive item). But if boosting new usages sounds a noble cause, defending leadership may be a more plausible motivation for Korea's leading MNO : KTF proved a better competitor last year and will strike very hard in 2007. A new marketing culture is being pumped into KT's bureaucracies at the best moment : after years of regulatory hurdles, IPTV and quadruple plays will at last blossom in the Land of Broadband.


* it should keep spreading though, as the extension of the fixed sphere it was meant to be, and often on voice-centric devices - as it does through quad play offers
** see "T Login for HSDPA, EV-DO, WiBro and YouNameIt" (20060920). But today, I would be surprised if SK Telecom and Samsung were not considering embedded 3G+ as a part of their recent international partnership.

J:COM's quadruple play - within the fence

"J:COM Mobile powered by WILLCOM" will start on March the 1st, 2006. J:COM customers will naturally get a discount fee, and the second line will cost them 2,000 yens instead of 2,500. "WILLCOM Flat-Rate" and "Toku-Toku Talk" plans are also meant to boost multiple subscriptions and intra-customer base traffic. Handsets are of course provided by Kyocera, a major Willcom shareholder.
J:COM aim for a "grand slam" on a relatively medium sized ball park ; a little more than 2M subs overall end of 2005 (3.5M for Willcom) : TV 1.8M (of which 650k digital), internet 911k, telephony 970k. Their homes-passed potential stands at 7.89M.
DoCoMo & co are not facing a power hitter either : J:COM Mobile are a 2G PHS M-VNO. A few hundreds of thousands of subs and a local flavor could mean a sustainable business model. For J:COM, that is : in the long run, WILLCOM must find a way out of 2G... or rather into 3G.
Japan's new 3Greenfield operators should be open to partnerships with wireless players bringing a few million customers along. After being awarded their licenses, IPmobile have remained relatively silent while the other two didn't seem to waste their time.
Significantly, Fidelity Investments Japan Limited just took 11.41% of eAccess last January. A few weeks earlier, eMobile would welcome aboard another financial partner : Goldman Sachs Group. But other players joined too, including Yoshimoto Kogyo Co., Ltd, a specialist in entertainment contents. eMobile keep the same TTM target : data services by the end of next fiscal year and voice services one year later.
BB Mobile Corp (Softbank) announced a nationwide mobile broadcasting service by 2012. That will be 5 years after 3G launch but content has already been locked : Softbank's Yahoo! BB are massively doping their movies, music and games portals for IPTV and other screens.
And yes, both BB & e keep talking about WIMAX... Obviously, a xDSL-3G TDD combo is not enough.
But still, there's no shame in drafting minor league cable-PHS customers for pre-season training.

See also : "3Greenfield Japan" (20051113)
J-Com : http://www.jcom.co.jp
eMobile : http://www.emobile.jp

Wetband-CDMA and Season's Greetings

Every year in Europe, about 300,000 handsets fall down a toilet bowl. LG Telecom (the MNO, not the handset manufacturer) being in deep gimchi, they decided to release Casio's water-proof phones to lighten up their season's greetings. These Wetband-CDMA beauties are quake-proof as well, but LGT are not likely to shake the country next year. Unless they bring a new player into the game, that is.
Korea Telecom took a much more political path announcing the first inter-korean phone service since the War. Mercifully enough, they dropped the Dok-do line.
Korea' national post services surfed yet another wave revealing a brand new set of stamps : the heroes of the day are video games characters. Welcome to the country where virtual monsters are more likely to end up on a stamp than one-term-presidents bound to lameduckood as soon as they're elected.
But Samsung took the nicest slice of the cake : following their deal with Vodafone Group Plc and Qualcomm, they can expect a happy new HSDPA year. I would advise them not to expose any wetphones come next 3GSM World Congress : with all those waves around them visitors always get a perm while roaming the show, but you wouldn't want any of them to be hydrocuted.

I wish you a happy new year too. You've been reading this excuse for a blog from over 120 countries (though more often from San Mateo County than from Ulaanbaatar or Ouagadougou, I must confess) and your comments are always very much welcomed.

Free WIMAX and quadruple play

Iliad remains a great wonder in the ever consolidating telecom world. When the minitel specialist launched its disruptive None Networks in the late 90s, I must confess I didn't think they could last very long. Freesbee (now the triple-and-soon-quadruple player Free) looked like the kind of free ISPs the founders would sell right before the bubble burst.
But they're damn good at what they do and since they're actually free, they don't have to cope with international partners and don't care about standardization* : they can go straight to the point with the solution they need, even if they have to develop it for themselves. The Freebox was the ultimate proof of their ability to deliver the goods - even technically tricky ones - with a very aggressive TTM. From an ADSL2+ basis, they recently reached 174 / 18 Mbit rates with a home made "F-ADSL". "Asynchronous" ? You bet, from a competitor's point of view. And it shows in the "Digital Subscriber Lines" : two thirds of Free's 1.5M ADSL customers (France Telecom's main challenger) can enjoy TV over DSL (Europe's leader). Following the deal with Altitude Telecom, Free enjoys a nationwide Wimax license and announces disruptive quadruple play offers... nothing seems to stop them. Hell, thanks to Michaël Boukobza's well deserved aura, Iliad even survived a nasty scandal involving its founder Xavier Niel.
2006 looks like another make or break year and could turn out to be both the best and the worst year to confront France's big guys : the 3 MNOs have just been heavily fined for anti-competitive behaviors and the broadcasting landscape is being totally reshuffled after the CanalSat - TPS deal.
Guess what ? All could face yet another disruptive new entrant.

Quadruple play : all bases loaded

Road Runner has been running a M-VNO-like trial for about two monthes in Kansas City, MO. The heart of the US seems to be beating fine, even if the commoditization of quadruple play bypass surgery can take some time. "Beep-beep" took a Sprint to outpace the competition, but Time Warner Cable expects the Vile E. CableCoyotes (Comcast, Cox & Co) to follow suit soon.
Content isn't the key issue : the ability to deliver will count (ie Time Warner Investments keeps a few coins in GoldPocket), and voice will remain the killer app... If not the killee app.