Broadband by Google "small dot" com : cloudy, with chances of bitballs

mot-bile 2010 - Over 190,000 individuals and 1,100 communities contributed to Google's request for information about its "experimental fiber network"*.

Of course, the aim of this RFI was to optimize the buzz, to impress the FCC, and to scare competitors : the only thing Big G keeps saying about its "Ultra high speed broadband" project is that it will reach 1 Gbps FTTH (don't expect Google Broadband to be con-TISPated**), and that the "experience" will involve between 50,000 and 500,000 customers (small figures for a boolean search, but half a million sounds like a Warren Beatty kind of testbed).

So instead of a network coverage map, Google delivered this splendid PR map where "each small dot represents a government response, and each large dot represents locations where more than 1,000 residents submitted a nomination" :



And "wherever we decide to build" is up to us guys.

Said guys are in Vegas (along with Google, of course) at the CTIA show, listening to T-mobile about 3G++, Verizon Wireless about LTE, and Sprint about "4G" WiMAX***. All making plans to prevent network overloads courtesy iPhone, Android et al.

Next thing you know your Ma and Pa CLEC / coop telco looks attractive again because Google needs a really rural testbed in Armpit, ND or any other "small dot" on their map to tell the FCC they're not only rolling out fiber in San Mateo or Houston.

Wheather forecasts ? Cloudy, with chances of bitballs.

* "Next steps for our experimental fiber network" (Official Google Blog 20100326). Note that the number of communities almost doubled between the 3/26/2010 10:00:00 AM post and its 3/26/2010 05:26:00 AM update.
** "Google TiSP - US Open at Flushing Windows"
*** "HTC EVO 4G : Sprinting to 4G... or rather 4G WiMAX/3G EV-DO Rev. A"

Free Mobile gets France's 4th 3G license, will offer VoIP

mot-bile 2009 - French regulator ARCEP gave the final nod to Illiad's 100% (for the moment - see previous episodes including "Free: alea jacta est") subsidiary. Free Mobile gave all the guarantees needed and pledged to offer all web services on the mobile, including VoIP.

Also to be noted : total transparency for the cost of mobiles. Consumers will know when they pay for the devices or for the traffic... greenfield Free found a smart way of disturbing the local operators / manufacturers cuisine.

Overall, Free gets 382 points out of 500 : 55/65 for commercial offers, 64/100 for coverage, 20/25 for QoS, 54/60 for relationships with service providers, 22/25 for customer relationships, 22/25 for environment, 22/25 for employment, 56/75 for business plan consistency and credibility, 72/100 for project constistency and credibility.

In a nutshell :
. TTM / commercial launch : 2 years from now.
. coverage : just above the levels required for 3G (voice : 27% at launch instead of 25%, 75% after 5 years, 90% after 8 years instead of 90%), and a contribution to the common effort for 2G coverage of remote areas
. staff : from 1,000 (EOY 2012) to 5,000 (EOY 2018)
. M-VNOs : Free Mobile will accept up to 4 full m-vnos
. devices : offers without terminals, payment of terminals over few months
. voice : an access package including 3 hours of intraeuropean calls for less than 20 euros
. data : all offers include mobile internet access
. customer services : customers can contact for free consumer associations when they want to post a complaint ! The best way to relieve Free's hotlines and to get rid of the said associations !!!

Of course, Free Mobile's capital is as expected very likely to be raised to finance both 3G and FTTH, and that's been clearly specified in the proposal.

Next steps for the ARCEP ? Attributing the remaining blocks of frequencies : 5 and 4.8MHz in the 2.1GHz band (H1 2010 - open to any player), and the 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz bands for 4G (H2 2010).

"L'ARCEP retient la candidature de Free Mobile" (20091218) + slides presented during today's Press conference

Femtosat, but not seamless yet

Covering France has always been a headache for operators : unlike in the UK, population is very much dispersed, and 75 million visitors roam the country every year with a special fondness for bullet trains, mountain hiking, or kayaking down remote valleys.

Curing the great "digital divide" between broadband France and forsaken France became a national cause, local administrations pushing their own agendas to prevent businesses from leaving their regions, and national authorities forcing operators to pool resources in non-telecomly-strategic areas... As of today, total unbundling is available only in 30% of France Telecom POPs, and even Paris is struggling : rolling out FTTH remains a painstaking process from one old building to another.

As far as 3G is concerned, SFR is supposed to cover 90% of the population and 98% by 2012, but remains closer to 80%. Orange is not respecting its own obligations either. Bouygues Telecom ? even further downhill... Many wonder how potential newcomer Iliad Free could roll out a brand new nationwide 3G network...

But for the public, all 3 incumbents are seen as Scrooges : either of the Scrooge McDuck kind, sitting on a mountain of money and refusing to spend it, or of the Ebenezer Scrooge kind, bitterly sitting in the dark while everybody else expects Santa Claus Free Mobile for Christmas.

SFR obviously refused the role and announced two innovations for this week (for the moment, same brand but different worlds) :

=> a Satellite Internet Pack with Eutelsat (from EUR 29.90 / month for a not so broad band - max 3.6 Mbps and 4.7 GB -, but unlimited browsing between 11 pm and 7 am)

=> a femtocell quad play booster, Home 3G (via SHD, a.k.a. Société du Haut Débit, a SFR / Neuf Cegetel unit). Theoretically, Home 3G's EUR199 adaptor can be plugged on any ADSL box, but not all equipments will be compatible :



4 SFR 3G subscribers will be able to communicate at the same time on the same femtocell, but if they fully enjoy the service from day one, they may adapt their usage after receiving the first bill... and reconsider the virtues of the ADSL box they had in the first place.

Nevertheless, the best defense is a good offense, and being the first to strike at the macro and micro level necessarily paves the way for the next steps.

mot-bile 2009

2nd Million for TU Media - 2nd country for SK Telecom - Citi JV

June 25, 2009 ? Apparently a good day for SK Telecom PR :
- subsidiary TU Media signs its 2,000,000 th customer
- JV with Citigroup launches mobile banking services in the Philippines, a few months after Hong Kong

The SK Telecom - Citibank Philippines JV (Mobile Money Ventures LLC) is definitely good news : in Hong-Kong, services were more about portfolio management than actual personal banking and transactions - what Citi Mobile Banking (CMB) is all about in the Philippines. These browser-based services shall soon be implemented in other countries, and confirm the operator's international ambitions in mobile finance (see recently "SK Telecom's Wild Hana Card").

But is TU Media really a success ?

Many European players would love to boast 2 M mobile TV paid users, but 2 M is not even equivalent to 10% of SK Telecom's customer base and for this operator, a 10% penetration after 4 years doesn't seem very impressive.

Besides, to claim its second million customers, SKT's S-DMB unit took more time than it did for the first : TU Media was launched in May 2005 and reached the 1 M mark in December 2006.

Indeed, TU Media was in a very poor condition last year, both financially (mounting debts) and commercially (it claimed only 1.3 M subs in June 2008, a gain of 300,000 in 1.5 years). The 700k customers gained over the past 12 months are the result of what appears to be a make or break move by the owner : SKT went up in the company, injected KRW 55 bn more, and offered massive discounts to its own mobile subscribers... to the point that an undisclosed proportion of its "paid subscribers" don't have to pay to enjoy the service* !

As a consequence :

=> TU Media becomes more competitive with terrestrial accesses (T-DMB), which have been free since the beginning (launched in December 2005) : as we saw ("3M DMB subs - SBSM on its way"), that's the reason why they are much more popular. T-DMB claims the bulk of Korea's 20M+ DMB-enabled devices (every other handset is OK for mobile TV).

=> At the corporate level, TU Media is now more a MNO's Business Unit than the initial stand alone operator. The very few people who didn't use SKT as their mobile phone operator are encouraged to join the leader, and for the rest, TU Media looks almost like an option among others.

=> TU Media has been burning a lot of cash, and a sustainable TU Media requires more differenciation, and even greater efforts :

- Technological differenciation is not necessarily positive : in covered areas, terrestrial has theoretically an edge over satellite for indoor. SKT does enjoy a truly nationwide coverage, and propose an in-car access offer (TU Rideon - KRW 11,000 / mo - 3 yrs offered for Basic) as well as a real time traffic service (TU TPEG - KRW 3,000 / mo), but T-DMB is very popular for buses and coaches.

- Content and added value services remain key, and SKT will not always surf on such events as the Beijing Olympics, a major boost for subscriptions last year (the whole population was hooked and literally always on one way / media or another)... but not very differentiating since several broadcasters offered the same images (SBS clinched the exclusive TV rights for the next Olympic Games). The only "paid service" operator could try and lock some key rights to pimp up its own premium channels TU Entertainment and TU Sports (both available through the TU Select service : 1 channel for KRW 2,000 / mo, 2 for 3,000, 3 for 4,000). Other premium services feature TUBOX (movies PPV for krw 1,000 or 1,500 apiece) and PREMIUM 19+ (adult for krw 3,000 / mo or 1,200 for 2 days).

Still now, SKT seems to be as much pushing the service as trying to pull it out of a ditch. The technological landscape keeps evolving and in 2012, fixed and mobile broadband will reach respectly 1 Gbps and 10 Mbps. Typically, SKT is investing massively in optic cabling (from 5,000 km to 88,000 km) through SK Networks.

But mobile TV has found a public anyway, and SK Telecom is not the kind of player to abandon leadership easily. Particularily in such a key vertical.

So it brought along TU Media in its trials in Thailand, so...

... not to be discontinued yet.

But stay tuned.


* With TU Media, you pay only for subscription charges. Neither for traffic nor for content, except for movies on demand (NB: these days, KRW 1,000 is about USD 0.78) :
- Basic rates are KRW 6,000 for TU Slim (9 TV channels + 16 audio), idem for TU English (10 TV + 16), and KRW 11,000 for TU Basic (unlimited 21 TV + 16 audio)
- SKT customers enjoy a 6,000 discount on basic rates, which sets Basic at 5,000... and Slim and English services at zero

3G license part III - France's fourth wedding or a funeral ?

France's NRA, the ARCEP, reopened the 3G beauty contest for a fourth license : previous tenders were launched in August 2000 (SFR and Orange got their pass in June 2001) and December 2001 (Bouygues Telecom in December 2002). The price tag remains at EUR 619.2M (+1% of the turnover afterwards), and the first contenders look as French as the 3 incumbents.
They also look less like "beauty pageants" than like brides looking for grooms : even with reasonable coverage obligations (Bouygtel still hasn't launched but must cover 20% by April 2007), 2G national roaming agreements, and site sharing opportunities, neither Iliad / Free nor Noos / Numericable can really afford 3G as they are today, especially with their ambitious FTTH rollout plans. Iliad and Noos are even considering same-sex marriage to strenghten their position on the French market.

Who would invest in a greenfield venture with such tenderfeet ? At a time when even a Vodafone takes some distance with network management ?

Actually, the main bidders are the 3G license holders who want to get a slice of spectrum leftovers and pushed for the consultation last year. What's up for grabs ? 2*15 MHz FDD + 5 MHz TDD in the 2 GHz range. Note the FDD and TDD thing, plus the "UMTS" title over the ARCEP communique : if you intend to seize the opportunity and promote an alternative 3G technology, go knock at some other door*.

So here we have a minister saying "let them now speak, or forever remain silent" without even having a marriage to perform. Actually, his job seems to make sure no wedding will ever take place.

France is too busy filing for divorce with new entrants. And as usual, people are fighting over child care. No price tag is set yet for this not-born / not-borne spectrum. Fish to fry and money to collect for France's next president.

Big operators also put a lock on digital radio : the government seems to be pushing T-DMB instead of DAB, more popular among small players. The winners in digital TV (TNT) were also major players (TF1, France Televisions, Canal+, Lagardere...). Everywhere, infrastructure and operating know-how remain the best barriers to entry. To become a big fish in the pond, you either have to invest in them (ie NRJ Group with Towercast) or to build a media empire as quickly as possible (ie Bollore).

* 3G is mentioned in the ARCEP annex as IMT 2000. The recent courting of the ITU by WiMAX (see "3G & 4G - WiMAX flirts with ITU" - 20070303) adds some spice to the affair, considering Free already holds WiMAX licenses (recycled WLL).

DoCoMo 4G The Wizard of Hz - Orange Landline Landmines - BT's FRED for free - Swisscom's 5in1 for 99

Bubbles start popping again. Vodafone concede their assets were overevaluated, Florentino Perez concedes the wealthiest club on earth may not the healthiest, and BT concede their disruptive "broadband dialtone" concept won't be free.
Following an interview in "Mail on Sunday", some believed BT would invest big sums in their 21st Century Network (21CN), plus £12M just for VoIP, just to offer broadband to anyone who wants to plug in. Make that "unlimited" instead of "free". Cardiff will go live by the end of the year and the rest of the 21CN (some 30 countries) in 2008, one year ahead of schedule. The aim of the game is for people to meet with FRED (BT's Fantastically Really Easy to use Device concept). Just like in your mid-90s slides, FRED sells convergence, optimized consumer experience, or seamless multidevice environments.
The difference is FRED does sell : BT Movio (to Virgin Mobile), BT Fusion handsets (BT Broadband at home, your MNO on the go - 13,000 units sold to date), BT Equinox (fixed-line SMS), internet radio (PC based and soon an enhanced TV based version with teleshopping, televoting and telewhatevering thanks to a new red button)... FRED will even launch - this spring - the already cult Bluephone (see "Bluephone : a 2,005 pound gorilla or a GNOME ?" 20050316).

Another former PTT keeps talking convergence and furthermore, acting accordingly. Swisscom's HSDPA coverage will reach 20% of the population mid-2006 and about 40% by the end of the year. That's the equivalent of Switzerland's main cities : it will cover more surface on the industry's newspapers than on the local maps but far enough for the operator's new devices to make sense. Less glamour than FRED, but truly "ready to use" : there is a Swisscom Unlimited PC Card 5in1 (GPRS, EDGE, UMTS, HSDPA and WLAN) with a CHFR 99 / month plan, but also an Unlimited Laptops solution developped with Fujitsu Siemens and Acer (embedded SIM, one touch connection, various plans including a CHFR 5 / hour concept, TTM June 2006).

Orange are a former PTT too, through France Telecom's DNA. As expected, they now claim to be "an integrated communications provider" and intend to become "the total communications provider". Orange Landline for Business means fixed line service for SMEs with one stop shopping and billing, simplified supply chain and service support models, convergent packages and bundles, discounted rates between Orange fixed and Orange mobile number ranges or to 'Business Circle' numbers (top 10 landline contacts), Orange Business customer service with a Landline Performance Promise...
But Orange Landline for Business also means Orange Landmine for Partners : the F/MNO controls the whole chain and intends to lock the customer's entry points as fully as it does in France.

How about the mother of all PTTs ? NTT DoCoMo have been talking 4G even before releasing 3G. We knew from the start they meant business because of their capacity problems : even HSDPA / HSUPA cannot solve them and DoC is bound to lead once more in commercial TTM. From time to time, the Alchemist skillfully displays a few glimpses of his witchcraft : "by increasing the number of MIMO transmission antennas from four to six and by using 64-QAM (NB : Quadrature Amplitude Modulation), data volume per transmission was increased from four bits to six bits. As a result, DoCoMo achieved a maximum speed of 2.5Gbps, which is faster than the International Telecommunication Union Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R)'s proposed standard". The Wizard of Hz also pushed frequency spectrum efficiency to 25 bps per Hertz, the limit as defined by WINNER (the EU's Wireless world INitiative NEw Radio). In other words : I've been working on 4G on my own according to the rules and the guidelines of standardization bodies, but I've already beaten their expectations. So you'd better follow me if you want to go further and quicklier.
Technology's always been the MNO's main hobby, but they have some 50 million consumers to please and a few technologies to sell before they get obsolete (i-mode, V-Live, i-motion, FOMA...). So the DoCoMo - Nippon Television Network Corporation JV (each partner injecting 5 bn Yens) will start on April 3 under the D.N. dream partners LLP name. What's in a name... the Master Of DYI finally understanding what kind of partnerships he really needs to succeed ?

Chindias Regal

2005 was the year China became passé. Everybody pulled out of the Middle Empire and invested massively in India where developpers speak perfect English and bubbles (real estate, financial, political, social, ecological, stock-marketal, Mittal...) are less likely to burst in the very short term. Besides, luxury brands eventually realized India would soon become their main market (the country will go from 11 to 20% in about the same time it takes a Ferrari to go from 0 to $200 fines).
Wireless India gained 3.5M subscribers last January and if big metrocities keep claiming the bulk of Bollywood consumer bases, mobile network operators seem committed to roll out in rural India and lower handset retail prices as much as they can : the race has started with the promoters of "fixed-wireless" solutions, supported by your usual suspects from Redmond, WA or Santa Clara, CA, but also by ambitious WIMAX players from Asia.
Don't expect a massive crop of antennas across the Indian horn fields, though : medium-sized cities are big enough for a sound business model, and Monsanto already sprayed Roundup everywhere.

Handle with e-care - China-aware pro gaming

Still keepin' an eye on SKT's stats, and especially TU media (following Slomobile TV) : now covering 84 cities, the mobile TV service claimed 200,000 subs after almost 5 months of operation. That's about 1,400 customers a day, but this average is supposed to be 2,400 nowadays (the first 100k took 2 months and 22 days, the last 2 months and 6 days). 90 more days at this pace would bring them over 400k subs at the end of the year and I guess they can push to an average 3,500 with the high season coming but they'd need a strong 4,500 to reach their original 600,000 target.
More impressive : last summer and 5 years after launch, e-Station (SKT's e-CRM portal) signed its 10th million customer. The service averages 160K users per day (70% being in their 20s-30s) and 16.4M acts per month (about 3 times as much as over the phone). Many MNOs would die for such figures.
For those as well : over 94% of SKT's customers are equiped with cdma2000 phones, now dubbed "2.5G"*. 84% have color screens and 52% are active Nate users. The mobile portal keeps improving and proposing new services, but the operator knows "wireless internet" is not the only field beyond voice. Hard to tell how m-finance and banking are contributing.
As far as international is concerned, I'm still expecting some juicy fruits from the SKT-Earthlink partnership, but the only news came from the MNO's professional gamers' team, T1, which drafted two Starcraft players from China. I don't know whether these hardcore gamers are ready to die for their new bosses but the mobile arena could be safer than a PC Bang : a 23 year old Briton, Darren Prior, was recently saved by his LG U8210 during a bank robbery, the handset stopping the bullet.
Welcome to Korea, the country where operators become bankers and handset manufacturers life insurers.

* still no specific statistics for EV-DO, but good news for 3G UMTS : since SKT are preparing commercial launch of HSDPA early 2006 (Nortel-LG to deliver the goods), they are pushing W-CDMA as well in the South : commercial launch this November for Jeju-do, Jeolla-do and Gyeongsang-do + Busan.

NYC sub subs

So they're fighting for the coverage of US subways now (277 outta 468 stations). The Metropolitan Transportation Authority proposes a 10 year exclusivity and all MNOs are bidding, but the winner will be compelled to offer roaming to his competitors, CDMA or GSM (anyway they can't go together in the tunnel of love since the tunnel parts are not included in the contract). The NYT sizes the prize between $50 and 100M.
That's a far cry from MTA's no-bid contract awarded to Lockheed Martin Corporation for its electronic surveillance system : $212M. And that system won't be shut down in case of terror crisis. Not that it could change anything : the time for the authorities to realise something's happening it will be too late anyway. But not for this major favorite of the Bush Administration.

Mantra

Visited Little Potala near Zhongdian. Got blessed by the main monk - a close friend to the Dalai Lama, even if he meets him less often than the Hollywood crew. Heard him hummmmmmmmm his beautiful mantra. No visitors today. Quiet site. Splendid view on the village below, a few ancient houses uphill and the traditional GSM totem towering over the whole area. A young monk is climbing the stairs while dancing and talking to someone over his mobile phone. Not far away, a Tibetan girl's own amulet starts ringing a polyphonic elevator-tailored version of some George Michael's tune. For those who wondered about coverage in Paradise. Dial M for mantra.