2001 2011 2021 revolutions

The Nokia-Microsoft knot tying didn't quite come as a surprise - more the confirmation of a double failure, and the sign that times they have a-changed over the past decade.

Remember the time when both giants were competing for mobile data supremacy ? Well combined they still lead the smartphone OS barnum, but not as cultural leaders.

Ten years from now, we'll probably be laughing at the Apple-Google war - or rather at the Google-Facebook face off. Ten years ago, former webehemoth Yahoo! was licking his post-bubble wounds, toddler Google waiting for better times to consider its IPO, and Facebook was not even on its founders' brainwave maps (whoever said founders may be). Ten years ago, MNOs were trying to figure out how to recover from insane auctions for 3G spectrum.

2021 top duettists may not be born yet. Maybe Apple could be one of them. Not Apple the device manufacturer (still struggling with a sub-5% market share), but Apple the champion of cloud management services, and your favorite remote librarian.

But the next tide is coming. Take Southcentral Google, for instance : rumor has it they're considering a merger with fellow Baby Googles Southeastern Google and Northwestern Google. Announcements to be made in Seoul at the 5GLTE World Congress.

mot-bile 2011

WACking Apple's App Store : United Colors of MNOs or WAP redux ?

The Wholesale Applications Community (WAC) chose the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona to announce its foundation. The aim it to make application standards transparent, and services available on as many platforms as possible, or as the association puts it from the customer's point of view : to offer "a broader choice of innovative applications and services available on a wider choice of devices than ever before". From the application developers' point of views it goes like this : "a single gateway (...) to access a vast potential customer base".

How big ? Among the 27 founding members of the WAC, 24 operators claiming 3 bn subs : America Movil, AT&T, Bharti Airtel, China Mobile, China Unicom, Deutsche Telekom, KT, Mobilkom Austria Group, MTN Group, NTT DoCoMo, Orange, Orascom Telecom, Softbank Mobile, Telecom Italia, Telefónica, Telenor Group, Telia Sonera, SingTel, SK Telecom, Sprint, Verizon Wireless, VimpelCom, Vodafone, Wind.

The casting is less impressive for manufacturers : Samsung, LG, Sony Ericsson. Significant players, but all losers in the smartphone standards. Yeah, Samsung is showing off its Samsung Bada OS in Barcelona but come on, that one is not going to become number one. Even Nokia and Intel combined can't make it with their brand new Meego.

Anyway, here's the deal for developers : on one hand, become one of the billion plus apps available in the App Store reserved to iPhone users... and on the other, tap into the 3 billion plus market opened by this elite of haves and havemores.

Tired of the multiplication of proprietary platforms ? The WAC intends to make that layer transparent for you. And when the WAC writes "developers will only have to create one version of their application and this can be used on multiple types of devices and operating systems (such as Symbian, Android, Windows etc)", it's up to every potential "etc" to decide : keep playing it solo or join the party.

Some developers may remember how WAP struggled in its early stages. Will this WAC work ? Fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me... you can't get fooled again'.

Can you ?

I think Vodafone, Orange & co remember perfectly the WAP episode. Since then MNOs proved they could work on common platforms to boost the ecosystem (ie Gallery in France). And if they fight against each other, they would love to commoditize markets they cannot rule anyway.

I'm not worried about technology roadmaps and paths.

But the editorial line... believe me, that one is gonna be a long and winding one.

mot-bile 2010

* see "Leading Operators Unite to Unleash Global Apps potential" (20100215 - on wholesaleappcommunity.com, the association's website)

All you can eat content

apple is considering unlimited music services, Nokia style. apple cares more about hardware than service. apple somehow feels something has to be done in the format field if it doesn't want the iTunes / iPod / iPhone success to dry up.

SK Telecom IS an expert in marketing mobile services. It owns the platforms and the contents. And its deal with SanDisk last month in Barcelona looks more interesting to me. SanDisk's Flash memory cards + SKT's DRM solutions aim at the mobile TV and PVR (Personal Video Recorder) applications.

OK. Storage is key. OK, there's this thing about CDs going south vs immaterial music et al, and that thing about MNOs enhancing the mother of all cards, the SIM/USIM. And OK, we are more into the Blu Ray / Tera octet hard drive era than in memory card times.

But SK Telecom is venturing beyond the MNO's yard, taking yet another initiative on yet another part of the value chain. And it had been a while since they did something like that. So let's wait and see.

Pay-Buy Mobile - DoCoMo inside

KTF will pioneer GSMA's "Pay-Buy Mobile" initiative in Korea this summer, a couple of weeks after SK Telecom's launch of a service with Visa International (30,000 3G subscribers from April on).

PBM combines NFC (which should please Nokia) with SIM/Cards techno (which should please operators), and the initial casting of 14 operators from 3 continents looks strong : overall, AT&T; China Mobile; KALL; KTF; MCI; MTN; NTT DoCoMo; Rogers Wireless; Smart Communications; Telenor, TeliaSonera; Telecom Italia; Turkcell, and Vimpelcom claim 900 millions subs.

Yet, don't look for a SK Telecom, a Orange, a Telefonica or a Vodafone out there. The Sympay syndrom ? The fear NTT DoCoMo might steal the show and try to make PBM converge with its own initiatives (FeliCa and EDY through BitWallet) ?

Don't look for a bank either. At this stage.

What I do see though, is a transcontinental initiative with a GSMA label. And only a crosscontinental move could force a change in Europe, GSMA's birthplace. Up to now, a lobbying deadlock has been preventing operators and financial institutions from reaching an agreement and m-payment from progressing towards standardization. No-one wants to lose ground on one's home turf (mobility, financial services), and no-one wants a competitor to succeed (ie banks blocking deals between cellcos and more reactive players like Visa or Amex).

Should this G14 federate a few institutions across - say - Asia and North America, things may change. No financial institution will want to lose the face on that one for too long.

DoCoMo did put a few coins in AT&T and KTF. An expensive dime at a not always relevant time. We are about to know if they were just playing with one-armed bandits or really expecting some payback.

3GSM 2007 - A brave new World ? A new and improved Vodafone ?

This week, Vodafone decided to send a few messages to the market :
- Purchase of Hutchison Essar ($11.7bn for a 67% controlling stake... provided Essar doesn't launch a counterattack tainted with economic patriotism*) : I intend to remain in the World's top 3 operators for subscribers and I'm gonna post exciting growth rates for the years to come. Certainly not for ARPU but I'm investing for the long term. And by the way : I'm still able to invest for higher purposes than the loyalty of my shareholders.
- Another deal with Orange on 3G network sharing : I prefer to invest on CAPEX in India where it will make a difference. I'm bracing for a fiercer competition in mature markets, where I will focus on service.
- An impressive collection of old and new partnerships with almost all major web players (Google for mapping, Yahoo! and Microsoft for IM, YouTube, eBay, MySpace...) : you think these newcomers are smarter and swifter, and you believe they will get the bulk of the value but look ! everybody wants to work with me and I'm certainly not begging for partners. They know who's ruling the game and you don't want to miss this train or else...

At last the big red machine decides to move. But I cannot see much disruption out there. It actually looks like their last smart move in Turkey, only at a bigger scale. I'd like to have more movements in the home / office spheres. Beyond WCDMA900, that is (Nokia providing UMTS900 for SFR after Portugal and Finland). To be continued...

Otherwise, 2007 doesn't look like a year for new paradygms :
- Qualcomm still wants to be the King of the Universe, but its Universal Broadcast Modem (UBM) combines MediaFLO technology, DVB-H and 1seg / ISDB-T without caring much for DMB... a slap on the wrist for those naughty koreans who want to kick it out of their country.
- Quadplays are getting mainstream. The Virgin-NTL combo, Virgin Media, charges £20 for 2, £30 for 3 and £40 for the first no-frills quads (the 125 pound gorilla offers unlimited calls in the fixed arena and 500 mn of mobile babbling plus a monthly data package including £60 in airtime and 1,000 SMS, along with the hardware - handset and PVR). Virgin Mobile will also strengthten its controlled distribution.
- Either terrified by Viviane Reding or cornered by an ever tougher competition, O2 extends My Europe to 31 countries. For £10 per month or £60 per year, business subscribers to My Europe Extra won't be charged for incoming calls whatever the network on which they are roaming. Intraeuropean calls will cost 25p per mn flat.

That could be the best news for 2007 (but for MNO shareholders) : the landline / mobile gap in calling rates is bound to decrease even before VoIP gets fully mobile. The competition goes beyond mobility and furthermore, from the customer's point of view, that's the minimum you could expect from convergence in a broadband world.


* Voda downsizes its participation in Bharti but still keeps a few toes in the venture.

SlingPlayer Mobile - placeshifting or shoplifting ?

Sling Media Inc exhibited its recently released SlingPlayer Mobile in Cannes*. For $29.9 per month, you will be able to turn your Windows Mobile device into a remote home TV, "remote home" meaning you can zap on the go through any channel you've subscribed to at home (local channels, pay TV, pay per view...).
SlingPlayer Mobile is marketed as an extension of the Slingbox device, which "placeshifts" your set top box anywhere you bring it and works on Wi-Fi or 3G.
Instead of "placeshifting", cablecos and cellcos would rather talk about "shoplifting" or "boxjacking" : teleporting Spock is good entertainment but teleporting access is bad for business.
Well... slings are supposed to send things that hurt over the air. The problem is the said things are not supposed to fly on their own. Sling Media Inc seems to have made a perfect shot through a loophole and could prove to be as sustainable as TiVo**. Time will tell whether it was pure blind luck or the beginning of something.

* at MIPTV featuring Milia : 3GSM moved to Barcelona but many cellcos keep roaming the center's alleys
** not so sure : TiVo hosts more value than this smart remote control, TiVo already proved to be legal, and even TiVo is not untouchable yet.

Barcelona 2006 Mega SIM city

Just to wrap up my last post ("TDtv and IP fews" - 20060213) : note that Orange will try IPWireless' TDtv during Q3 2006.

That's not the only news 3GSM visitors could squeeze from "Naranjita", who definitely made the headlines* with their Mega SIM concept : a 512M SIM card meant to handle heavy multimedia stuff.
Come on... You don't want to be SIMlocked for your music as well, do you ?
Not only do MNOs compete with music retailers : they're going at the SD / CF market as well, turning their handsets into slot machines.
The equation : one machine (LG for a start) = one slot = one card provider (your usual casino operator - err... mobile network operator, sorry). And make it quick before Compact Flash takes everything.
The catch ? It's just like in Sin City : your hotel provides you with a superb card to play on all its slot machines but you cannot play across the Strip unless that other casino belongs to the same mob.
More fundamentally : you want your storage device to be compatible with all your gadgets. This Mega SIM makes sense if it boosts your online experience (voice, data) and/or helps you switch handsets quicklier than you change clothes - if it is meant for storage only, you will still need other slots or ports.
Yet, it's about time MNOs realize they can do better with this exclusive entry point.


* sorry for Nok-nok (Nokia 6136 - UMA, GSM / W-LAN, microwave oven and satellite dishwasher), Skype (voice over-hyped with 3 & co), Comsys Mobile (ComMAX, "a full Mobile WiMAX baseband processor")...

TDtv and IP fews

When I write "IPmobile have remained relatively silent" (after getting a 3G license in Japan)*, I'm only talking about the 3Greenfield operator.
Because mother company IPWireless has been fairly active lately.
In 2006 alone : Sprint Nextel injected another $10M in the venture, the CEO resigned, new & old faces joined the board, and IPW announced TDtv trials for H1 2006, not to mention partnerships with MobiTV and Vidiator.
Based on MBMS (Multimedia Broadcast and Multicast Standard) and, unsurprisingly enough, UMTS-TD-CDMA, this mobile TV solution will naturally be exhibited in Barcelona this week and - a little bit later - used by IPmobile in Japan. IPW's 3G-3GTV combo matches Qualcomm's cdma2000-MediaFLO package : with a slightly smaller customer base to start with, but also with the 3GSM label.
As the GSM family gathers near La Sagrada Familia, faces look much less grim than a couple of years ago. This mob used to milk the neighborhood without pain but suddenly got challenged by competitors and incorruptible regulators. The association reorganized itself in order to cope with both and now looks stronger than ever, able to lead in a world of competition and diversity, eager to market to third parties a consumer base bigger than China.


* see "J:COM's quadruple play : within the fence" (20060210)

Movida : the Generation Ñ M-VÑO ?

I've been asked a reaction to Movida Communications, Walmart's hispanic centric M-VNO on Sprint's network with the help of The Cisneros Group of Companies. The fact is quite a few people Googled this blog right after Cisneros' press release : the announcement was made on february the 22nd and I was mentioning Movida over one week earlier (only referring to the 3GSM congress moving from Cannes to Barcelona) ! Besides, I've always kept an eye on Wal*Mart, expecting some involvement in the mobile business from the World's dominant retailer.
Needless to remind you how powerful Walmart are with over 138 million visitors every week in their 3,600 units in the US and 1,570 abroad, how they impact the lives of over one million employees or how they influence whole markets, being by far the first customer of big companies (hence the P&G - Gilette deal), some smaller players sometimes even outsourcing their marketing units at the master of data crunching. So here's my reaction, beyond the usual platitudes going with Wal*Mart (like "whether you are an operator, a service/content provider, a retailer or a vendor, you need to pay attention") :

• My first thought is AOL and Telefonica definitely missed the opportunity a couple of years ago. I can understand no US MNO wanted to open their gates to the then aggressive hispanic leader, but AOL did have at one moment both an Hispanic and a MVNO drive. Well AOL kind of drowned under their own ambitions so I can understand too... as Lenny sang it : so much Time wasted, playing games with love (…) But Baby it ain't over 'till it's over (actually Cisneros does own AOL Latin America Inc !). Of course this is not only about the US : Telefonica knows Walmart holds important positions in Mexico, Argentina or Brasil. And once WMT master the craft of ethnic marketing in mobility, they can consider other targets in Germany and the UK, even if they only rely on Wal-Mart Supercenters or Discount Stores without any Neighborhood Markets. And while they're at it, they can switch to their own brand and sell their always everyday low price service anytime anywhere including Korea and China. Walmart may not be as fun as Virgin nor Walton as sexy as Sir Dick, the perspective can lure new partners : Wal-Mart just signed a deal with CMT (Country Music Television) early march, but as CMT puts it "The two companies are exploring possible opportunities to expand the promotional program to other MTV Networks music services", the said promotional program including "digital media extensions"...
• My second reaction is Cisneros seems a smart move : there is some competition with Wal-Mart (retail in Puerto Rico) but mostly a perfect complementarity. Wal-Mart partners with a czar in hispanic entertainment and broadcasting (Univision, Venevision, Caracol, Claxson Interactive Group, Eccelera, Playboy TV Latin America & Iberia...). Wal-Mart partners with a great marketer very much familiar to the core target. Wal-Mart partners with an influential player : Gustavo Cisneros holds seats in the media commissions for the UN and the World Economic Forum, and the group knows how to work for/with big partners (ie AOL Latin America, DirectTV Latin America, Pizza Hut). Wal-Mart even partners with a company involved in telecoms, ISPs and mobilecoms : at home, Cisneros hold participations in Telcel Venezuela, Americatel (fixed line services) or Business Service Provider. Talking of which the choice of Sprint makes all the more sense that the ailing MNO joined forces with Nextel, more focused on biz targets.
• Now regarding the service (TTM S1 2005) : pay as you go vs prepaid looks fine (especially since Cisneros notices that it amounts to 90% of the hispanic wireless business), and I just love the "For English Press Two" claim. Movida branded phones (and cards) mean Walmart wants to control as much as they can their manufacturers, maybe also that they already plan their own brand. It will be interesting to see who will join (speaking Chinese may help).
• How about the figures, then ? Movida target today's 40 M US Hispanics (17% of all Americans by 2010), and Virgin Mobile USA claim 3 million customers after 2.5 years. I have no idea where the penetration stands among the Hispanics but it may be around the national average (a quite low 61%)… Even with all competitors clinching deals with the remaining Hispanic partners, I don't think the Wall*Mart - Cisneros combo can fail and do under 5 million within 3 years. That would be 13% of their core target, and not necessarily the lowest half of the 25% most cost oriented Latino shoppers.

Movida

Last clap for Cannes before the transfer to Barcelona. Time to really go broadband : visitors looking for a hotel room won't have to rent submarines anymore and they'll flow in bigger packets towards bigger fiestas at night. Yield managers will have to adapt their capacities from short power naps to long siestas. No hurry : la Sagrada Familia provides enough towers for all 3G incumbents as well as future 4G & beyond greenfield operators.
So France loses its biggest hotspot. La nouvelle vague is so passé, Dear : people crave for more wavelength, they want to surf and watch bimbos parade on their handsets as well as on the beach. Yet, Vertu may keep a booth to sponsor these gold plated senior citizens dozing on the Croisette.