Korea's fourth license reload

According to The Korea Herald (May 29), the Korean government is considering reviving the project of a fourth MNO license as part of a plan to stimulate the market.

Is there a need for another 4G network? Korea is well covered with LTE to LTE-A, beefed-up locally through pervasive femtocells and WiFi. And the three incumbents don't want to sit on their laurels: Korea Telecom promised 5G trials for the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics, and SK Telecom announced a partnership with Google on augmented reality ("T-AR for Project Tango").

Is there a need for more competition? It depends on the profile of the new player, and the impacts on a M-VNO ecosystem that, at long last, is biting into a pie still dominated by SK Telecom, Korea Telecom, and LG U+.

According to the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning (MSIP), M-VNOs were claiming a 8.8% market share as of April 21 (up from 2.9% in June 2012), thanks to prices on average 57% cheaper than the MNOs.

But it's not as if you had one fourth player with a 8.8% market share, big enough to contest the leaders on more profitable segments. Today, Korea has 27 M-VNOs, most struggling to make their first profit, and likely to never see it. Significantly, their number of subscribers started to explode when they targeted more discount-seeking audiences (the youth, Chinese migrant workers...).

A perennial candidate for the 4th spot is actually a consortium of M-VNOs: KMI (Korea Mobile Internet) revived their candidacy in October 2013, and defending the existing M-VNO ecosystem could be a stronger argument today. In December 2011, the Korea Communications Commission not only rejected KMI's bid, but also that of IST (Internet Space Time lost the backing of Hyundai Group at a critical moment). Note that the KCC also canceled the auction for the WiBro spectrum. I explained a few months earlier ("A Kbiz MNO ? SMEs vs Korea Inc") how the attempt by the Korea Federation of Small and Medium Businesses (Kbiz) to enter the market looked more like a lobbying stunt to push WiBro.

A much bigger fish could also seek the fourth license, with more brand power. Typically, CJ Group is already a major player in telecom, IPTV, or multimedia contents. It has the money to invest on new networks (Daum Kakao or Naver would need serious backing), the customer bases to leverage, and the contents to fill the pipes..., but don't bet on price wars with fellow chaebol on the juiciest segments. 
 
A true new entrant from overseas? Global MNOs know how difficult it would be in a country where foreign majors are seldom allowed to take or maintain leading positions (see retail for example: Carrefour and Wal-Mart already gone, Tesco on the back seat). But joining a consortium, or creating one remains a rare opportunity for international platforms to push their solutions in an otherwise locked Korean market. And nowadays, the dominant platforms do not necessarily belong to telecom operators...

Anyway, expect more lobbying ahead of the government's guidelines, expected by the end of June.

• See also "Daum Kakao, Google Campus... Korean platforms on steroids", other posts related to innovation in Korea.

mot-bile 2015

* "Consortium to bid for 4th mobile carrier in S. Korea" (Yonhap News - 2013/10/08)

A Kbiz MNO ? SMEs vs Korea Inc

The Korea Federation of Small and Medium Businesses (KFSB or Kbiz) wants to join SK Telecom, Korea Tecom and LG U+ (LG Telecom) as Korea's fourth mobile network operator.

This bid looks like a complete joke : a Kbiz-led consortium of 900 small businesses would invest about KRW 100 bn (USD 94 M) in "4G Wibro". How could it succeed where much stronger players failed and where MVNOs themselves cannot thrive* ?

Kbiz claims 2.7 million SMEs, but I don't see this greenfield player take those demanding customers from the big boys.

WiBro, a WMAN technology competing with WiMax, remains a Koreano-Korean thing with a convenient 4G label. Typically, KT is advertising about their "4G WiBro" coverage as SKT launches its LTE as the "real 4G", but eventually all 3 MNOs will implement LTE. Note that KT is also willing to close its 2G CDMA networks and proposing nice 3G/4G plans to die hard users, some of which have been keeping prehistoric handsets because of unbeatable unlimited rates.

Kbiz needs Samsung to propose WiBro, and that could be the actual aim of the game : not the candidacy to a license, but the PR operation behind the announcement.

Samsung is the ultimate chaebol, the perfect symbol of those almighties who rule over Korean economy and are often blamed for the weakness of the nation's SME ecosystem. Worse : they create their own SMEs to benefit from pro-SME incentives and suck even more value from the market. Even LEE Myung-bak, the CEO president who came from Hyundai Engineering and Construction, is campaigning about a 'fair society' where chaebols would allow small fish to survive.

I don't know if Kbiz will really go all the way, or if Samsung will pretend to play their game for image's sake... but Korean market remains fun to observe.

mot-bile 2011

* see "Korea : Onse Telecom wants to be a MVNO", "Korea Telecom signs the country's first MVNOs"...

Free Mobile gets France's 4th 3G license, will offer VoIP

mot-bile 2009 - French regulator ARCEP gave the final nod to Illiad's 100% (for the moment - see previous episodes including "Free: alea jacta est") subsidiary. Free Mobile gave all the guarantees needed and pledged to offer all web services on the mobile, including VoIP.

Also to be noted : total transparency for the cost of mobiles. Consumers will know when they pay for the devices or for the traffic... greenfield Free found a smart way of disturbing the local operators / manufacturers cuisine.

Overall, Free gets 382 points out of 500 : 55/65 for commercial offers, 64/100 for coverage, 20/25 for QoS, 54/60 for relationships with service providers, 22/25 for customer relationships, 22/25 for environment, 22/25 for employment, 56/75 for business plan consistency and credibility, 72/100 for project constistency and credibility.

In a nutshell :
. TTM / commercial launch : 2 years from now.
. coverage : just above the levels required for 3G (voice : 27% at launch instead of 25%, 75% after 5 years, 90% after 8 years instead of 90%), and a contribution to the common effort for 2G coverage of remote areas
. staff : from 1,000 (EOY 2012) to 5,000 (EOY 2018)
. M-VNOs : Free Mobile will accept up to 4 full m-vnos
. devices : offers without terminals, payment of terminals over few months
. voice : an access package including 3 hours of intraeuropean calls for less than 20 euros
. data : all offers include mobile internet access
. customer services : customers can contact for free consumer associations when they want to post a complaint ! The best way to relieve Free's hotlines and to get rid of the said associations !!!

Of course, Free Mobile's capital is as expected very likely to be raised to finance both 3G and FTTH, and that's been clearly specified in the proposal.

Next steps for the ARCEP ? Attributing the remaining blocks of frequencies : 5 and 4.8MHz in the 2.1GHz band (H1 2010 - open to any player), and the 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz bands for 4G (H2 2010).

"L'ARCEP retient la candidature de Free Mobile" (20091218) + slides presented during today's Press conference

Sonyntendows, beware : Freebox now a game console

mot-bile 2009 - First a set-top box remote control looking strangely like those you play basic videogames with on a boring flight, then some new games, now a developer toolkit... the gaming war is definitely on between French MSOs, and Free-Iliad wanted to shoot first, ahead of Xmas and of likely anouncements by SFR & friends (Universal). Ahead of December the 17th, too, the date when regulator ARCEP is expected to deliver its verdict for France's last 3G license.

Freebox should by no means be likely to compete with Sonyntendows (Sony, Nintendo, Microsoft). But as an enabler for low end gaming experiences, an emulator, it could have some impact. Game console manufacturers cannot expect to rule over The Big Screen as easily as they used to. Besides, The Big Screen is already as much a PC monitor as a game console monitor, when it's not already itself an internet enabled device.

The only question that seems to matter is the future of what is still called video game industry. Some day, players will have to move beyond the old PC/Mac - Sony/Nintendo/Microsoft - Java/BREW comedy. Without rejecting as false the choice between safety and ordeals.

More to come before Game Developers Conference 2010, next March in San Francisco.

Free: alea jacta est

Unsurprisingly, Virgin Mobile / Numericable / Bollore & Co didn't bid for France's 4th 3G license*, leaving Free Mobile as the only official candidate.

"Free Mobile" is neither Free nor Iliad but a special vehicle (100% Iliad) likely to welcome new investors on board... should it win.

Losing a beauty contest of one would be embarrassing. Not finding MNOs eager to invest and bring some know-how after winning could be even more embarrassing.

ORASCOM dropped from the race earlier this month but remains as deep-pocketed as a few days ago. Other players stay tuned, including MVNOs.

French regulator ARCEP should give its verdict by Christmas. Free targets a Time To Market 18 months later.

French consumers also expect gifts from the new entrant, but incumbents will probably anticipate as well, donning brand new Santa Claus suits a few months before #4's arrival on the market.

mot-bile 2009

* see Iliad's 20091028 communique

UK 1 down, France 1 up ?

All options on the table for T-Mobile UK ? France Telecom - Orange officially not interested, Vodafone and Telefonica - O2 considering the case, 3 below the radar.

Considering the value suggested by DTAG's own finance czars (less than the fees paid for their 3G license nine years ago), one way of optimizing the garage sale could be to sell chunks of spectrum to North Korean investors (insisting on potential health hazards), infrastructure to Myanmar, and customers to, say, one or two M-VNOs. Or even Three.

T-Mobile UK boasts 16.7 M customers, including Virgin Mobile UK. Virgin Mobile France is still officially hot for France's fourth license, along with partner Numericable-Completel*. I think that just like Iliad-Free, they're even hotter for any deep pocket investor with a MNO background (Orascom ?).

Whether France gets a fourth 3G MNO or not, UK will have to go down to a more reasonable level than the initial 5.

European incumbents will probably get a better ROI in India. Vodafone Essar didn't wait for the upcoming 3G auctions (more spectrum, more markets available), and invested with infrastructure partner Nokia in seven new regions.

You know the heyday of the Empire is over when a portion of India looks more exciting than UK as a whole.

* note that Numericable, a customer service laughing stock a few years ago, has been taking things seriously recently, particularly since Pierre Danon joined.

License IV

France went for a hybrid or double-stage solution to their 3G dilemma : since no 4th operator could enter the market without a ticket discount for all players (see "3G license part III - France's fourth wedding or a funeral ?"), the Government and NRA ARCEP decided to split the remaining spectrum.

The potential new entrant will get 5 MHz of 2.1 GHz + 5 MHz of 900 MHz (call for tender expected by EOY 2009), and lawmakers will discuss about what to do of the last 10 MHz of 2.1 GHz, probably putting back incumbents in the loop (friendly auction ?), and about how much this license will cost. I guess a little bit more than the EUR 10,000 a year needed for a Licence IV, which allows bars to sell alcohol without dishes (I mean dishes for food, not for satellite access).

The almost concomitant consultation about 4G allows incumbents to fry some fish or remain one step ahead. Analogic TV spectrum (the 2.6 GHz and 790-862 MHz bands favored by LTE) will be freed in November 2011.

An ambitious new entrant should position itself on both 3G and 4G, as well as on the fixed broadband last mile, where ARCEP is carefully monitoring the development of FTTH / FTTO : trials are under way (until March 31st), and a precise regulatory framework will be published before this summer.

Without a claim by Iliad/Free, the Regulator wouldn't have reserved 3M numbers starting with 06 for the new entrant, who would then have mostly to rely on 07 numbers, soon to be devoted to the same purpose.

Strong of more than 4M subscribers and on the way to 5M by EOY 2011, Iliad-Free remains the front runner and main lobbyist for the 4th license. The company already brought major disruptions to the French market, starting with their ISP business model as none Networks, and most dramatically by introducing the successful home "box" concept, now implemented by all incumbents (Orange Livebox, SFR Box, Bouygues Bbox). In an agressive lobbying campaign, Free announced 1,000 euros savings per year per household with 3 mobile subscriptions. With brand new pipes to fill, unlimited offers seem likely.

But it may take a new and wealthy partner (not a commodity nowadays) to build the said pipes : optic fibers were already a major challenge on the fixed access with a EUR 1bn CAPEX planned by 2012, but covering a country as geographically challenging as France with a 3G network is quite another.

That, or another disruptive "none Networks" model... not to mention "other networks" : Free already holds the only national WiMAX license*.

Or "another player", or course. Foreign (ie Orascom and the usual suspect...), national (some day, Carlyle will have to monetize Numericable's 4M subs), or more probably a combo of the two. But the deepest pockets could hesitate between player #4 and player #3, should Martin Bouygues seize the opportunity of this reshuffle to sell its mobile arm.

Yet another scenario ? No one goes for the network. Incumbents won't accept too cheap a price tag nor too loose coverage obligations for the new entrant... even if Bouygues Telecom was not precisely crushed for being behind schedule.

---
addendum 20090205

The price tag is eventually EUR 206M per 5MHz, similar to the 619M paid by each incumbent for their 15MHz load. Free may only take 5MHz, but the Government reminded the audience the existence of coverage obligations, insisting on a contribution for rural areas...

France files TMP

France's national broadcasting authority, the CSA, selected the happy not so few DVB-H winners : 16 channels for 13 spots and 11 players, including 1 total newcomer in the broadcasting / mobile field : Luc Besson's EuropaCorp TV. TMP (Television Mobile Personnelle) echoes TNT (Television Numerique Terrestre), the free DVB-T package, and a 30% coverage is expected by EOY 2011 (TNT reaches 95% then). TMP packages should range between 3 and 6 euros, not including premium channels.

New slots will be awarded next year. Not necessarily from the pack of losers.

And the winners are :

France Televisions (3 channels to be determined later by the CSA)
TF1 Group (Eurosport - a pay TV - and TF1).
Canal Plus Group (Canal + - the premium channel - and i tele)
M6 Group (M6 and W9)
France Telecom (Orange Sport TV may join the pack of pay channels after clinching part of French Ligue 1 soccer rights – anyway, FT confirms its big league status)
Next Radio TV (BFM TV)
Groupe Bollore Medias (Direct 8 Mobile)
NRJ Group (NRJ 12)
AB Groupe (NT1). TMC channel (a JV with TF1) didn't make it.
Lagardere Active (Virgin 17)
EuropaCorp TV (EuropaCorp)

In predictable moves :
- the CSA denied a spot to TF1's LCI news pay TV (unlike free competitors i tele and BFM TV) but did the same for Canal Plus' s Infosport (vs Eurosport)
- Groupe AB saved only its top channel, already on TNT. NT 1 Remix and TMC (a JV with TF1) didn't make it. Ditto for Nextradio (RMC Sport and Business 24/7 failed) and FT / Orange (no to O'TV).
- Lagardere Active secured only the Virgin / music brand for the first round (Elle TMP, Canal TMP, Gulli, MTP 1, MCM Top also failed)

16 + 12 = 28. 7 more projects were refused :
- MCS / Ma Chaine Sport (Numericable)
- E3TV (L'Equipe + Les Echos + Equidia)
- Life BAC (Lifebac)
- Tele Melody (Cofites)
- TVSF (Association TVSF)
- Aprod TV (Adamique Production)
- One TV Plus (Mobibase)

Orange has its rights, Orange has it right

Two good points for Orange :

- a greater share of French soccer rights : beyond the mobile rights it already earned in the previous contest, VOD and saturday night games should prove great teasers for the other sides of its quad play offers. Orange Sports is likely to become a better known and respected brand.

- a strategical partnership with Samsung for satellite TV broadcasting (DTH, probably via Eutelsat's Hotbird, but not on a wire) : 1 to 1.5 million sets (PVR + HD tuner) are expected from the begining. UK, Poland and Spain could follow France.

If Canal+ secured its lion's share in both soccer rights and satellite accesses, Vivendi is definitely facing a much tougher challenger...

... and all three French MNOs are now enjoying a strong TV flavor to better face a potential new entrant on their core market (see "3G license part III - France's fourth wedding or a funeral ?"- 20070309).

Back To Square Auctions

AT&T and Verizon trembling, Vodafone sweating, Cox, Cablevision Systems Corporation and EchoStar waiting, Qualcomm peeping, Google smiling... and the FCC counting the billions...

... Welcome to the 2008 700 MHz wireless spectrum. A few blocks up for grabs*, 214 potential bidders, and no winner will be known before the end of the whole process.

Some losers have already made the headlines, or rather the frontline of an obscure web page : "01.12.08 Frontline Wireless statement - Frontline Wireless is closed for business at this time. We have no further comment." Which means Frontline Wireless is already out of the race, and out of business without having ever been in.

This is a wild race and a wild world. We are talking wide and deep coverage : this spectrum will help go through large areas, through walls. The FCC even proposes a "Tribal Land bidding credit" for someone who would care for uncovered reserves. How generous from an organization that optimizes the chances of a 2000-2001 redux.

We're talking CLEC of the wireless kind, FMC and the whole shebang. We're talking about scared incumbents in the mobile as well as in the fixed areas.

Back then, T-Mobile would add a few rounds in the German auctions - totally unnecessary, except for the government. I guess they wish they had that money right now.

Chances are the biggest winners won't get one bit of spectrum at the end of the day.

Meanwhile, France is discounting the entry ticket for its fourth 3G license.


* 1,099 licenses overall - Block A : 176 EA (Economic Area) licenses - Block B : 734 CMA (Cellular Market Area) license - Block C : 12 REAG (Regional EA Grouping) - Block D : 1 national license for public / private partnership - Block C : 176 EA (minimum bidding price : USD 4.6 bn). The 698-806 MHz band was freed by TV broadcasters switching to DTV.

Bouygues not for sale ? How about TF1 ?

France's new president makes no secret of his friendship with Martin Bouygues, Arnaud Lagardere, Serge Dassault or Vincent Bollore, major players in France's industrial and communications landscape.
As soon as Sarko got elected, L'Expansion revived rumors of a takeover of Areva and its nuclear gems by Bouygues, and the eventuality of the sale of Bouygues Telecom for EUR 8+ bns. Sarko loves Amerika but AT&T may have other fish to fry than a small spot in the middle of a saturated Europe. Deutsche Telecom just sold its ISP in France (Club Internet), but KPN (a fellow DoCoMo partner) confirmed its interest. And Telefonica has been expecting some reciprocity since Orange entered its home market. Even Vodafone could prefer 100% of France's #3 to 44% of #2 SFR....
Whatever. Bouygues doesn't seem as focused on communication as it used to. Lately, the group lost TPS to Canal+, the battle for TNT / DTV's best slots, part of its soccer rights to France Television, plus his Darth Vaderish leader Patrick Le Lay is about to be replaced by Nonce Paolini, a man who was deliberately sidelined during the elections nights, these key moments when medias meet with all politicians...
Beyond Bouygtel, the sale of TF1 would be a major hearthquake.
Vincent Bollore hates Bouygues and provided the private jet and yacht to Sarkozy for his Malta honeymoon with France. Silvio Berlusconi loves Nicolas Sarkozy and has unfinished business with France. He would be delighted to help Bouygues refocus on its core industrial activities. Bouygues Telecom could be sold once the question of the 4th 3G license is closed, opening a new era of partnerships at the wireless as well as the landline level (Free Iliad ?).

free without Boukobza

Mickael Boukobza, who brilliantly ruled for 7 years over the development of France's most disruptive player in the telecom arena, will quit by this summer. His successor took part in some of TF1's most exciting moves beyond its core business (TPS, Metro, production...). A protege of Patrick Le Lay, Maxime Lombardini leaves the TV giant just before his boss retires, and joins Iliad at a rather exciting moment : here, the whole business is about to venture in unknown territories.
free should easily reach its target of 2.8 M ADSL customers EOY 2007*, and 4 M EOY 2010 doesn't seem a totally farfetched goal... It's just that the competitive landscape and the nature of the job are bound to change with WiMAX and FTTH (not to mention 3G**). It's just that you'll have to be strong to make it in the convergent, troubled, boost or bust times ahead.

The capacity to deliver, but also to anticipate and to evolve quickly have been free's trademarks under Boukobza. Let's see if this survivor of the internet bubble manages to reach yet another level with a different player at the joystick.

* EOY 2006 : 2,278,000 - 75.9% undbundled - ARPU EUR 34.5
** see previous episodes : "3G license part III - France's fourth wedding or a funeral ?" (20070309) "3G & 4G - WiMAX flirts with ITU " (20070303) "Free WIMAX and quadruple play" (20051226)

3G license part III - France's fourth wedding or a funeral ?

France's NRA, the ARCEP, reopened the 3G beauty contest for a fourth license : previous tenders were launched in August 2000 (SFR and Orange got their pass in June 2001) and December 2001 (Bouygues Telecom in December 2002). The price tag remains at EUR 619.2M (+1% of the turnover afterwards), and the first contenders look as French as the 3 incumbents.
They also look less like "beauty pageants" than like brides looking for grooms : even with reasonable coverage obligations (Bouygtel still hasn't launched but must cover 20% by April 2007), 2G national roaming agreements, and site sharing opportunities, neither Iliad / Free nor Noos / Numericable can really afford 3G as they are today, especially with their ambitious FTTH rollout plans. Iliad and Noos are even considering same-sex marriage to strenghten their position on the French market.

Who would invest in a greenfield venture with such tenderfeet ? At a time when even a Vodafone takes some distance with network management ?

Actually, the main bidders are the 3G license holders who want to get a slice of spectrum leftovers and pushed for the consultation last year. What's up for grabs ? 2*15 MHz FDD + 5 MHz TDD in the 2 GHz range. Note the FDD and TDD thing, plus the "UMTS" title over the ARCEP communique : if you intend to seize the opportunity and promote an alternative 3G technology, go knock at some other door*.

So here we have a minister saying "let them now speak, or forever remain silent" without even having a marriage to perform. Actually, his job seems to make sure no wedding will ever take place.

France is too busy filing for divorce with new entrants. And as usual, people are fighting over child care. No price tag is set yet for this not-born / not-borne spectrum. Fish to fry and money to collect for France's next president.

Big operators also put a lock on digital radio : the government seems to be pushing T-DMB instead of DAB, more popular among small players. The winners in digital TV (TNT) were also major players (TF1, France Televisions, Canal+, Lagardere...). Everywhere, infrastructure and operating know-how remain the best barriers to entry. To become a big fish in the pond, you either have to invest in them (ie NRJ Group with Towercast) or to build a media empire as quickly as possible (ie Bollore).

* 3G is mentioned in the ARCEP annex as IMT 2000. The recent courting of the ITU by WiMAX (see "3G & 4G - WiMAX flirts with ITU" - 20070303) adds some spice to the affair, considering Free already holds WiMAX licenses (recycled WLL).

Free WIMAX and quadruple play

Iliad remains a great wonder in the ever consolidating telecom world. When the minitel specialist launched its disruptive None Networks in the late 90s, I must confess I didn't think they could last very long. Freesbee (now the triple-and-soon-quadruple player Free) looked like the kind of free ISPs the founders would sell right before the bubble burst.
But they're damn good at what they do and since they're actually free, they don't have to cope with international partners and don't care about standardization* : they can go straight to the point with the solution they need, even if they have to develop it for themselves. The Freebox was the ultimate proof of their ability to deliver the goods - even technically tricky ones - with a very aggressive TTM. From an ADSL2+ basis, they recently reached 174 / 18 Mbit rates with a home made "F-ADSL". "Asynchronous" ? You bet, from a competitor's point of view. And it shows in the "Digital Subscriber Lines" : two thirds of Free's 1.5M ADSL customers (France Telecom's main challenger) can enjoy TV over DSL (Europe's leader). Following the deal with Altitude Telecom, Free enjoys a nationwide Wimax license and announces disruptive quadruple play offers... nothing seems to stop them. Hell, thanks to Michaël Boukobza's well deserved aura, Iliad even survived a nasty scandal involving its founder Xavier Niel.
2006 looks like another make or break year and could turn out to be both the best and the worst year to confront France's big guys : the 3 MNOs have just been heavily fined for anti-competitive behaviors and the broadcasting landscape is being totally reshuffled after the CanalSat - TPS deal.
Guess what ? All could face yet another disruptive new entrant.

Livedoor to incumbents : you've got mail

What's up in Japan ?
Nothing spectacular as far as incumbents are concerned. As their 3G lead is shrinking, KDDI seek new growth engines through CDMA-GSM roaming ; NTT DoCoMo try to think positive despite gloomy news (i-mode struggling even in Australia) ; and after posting a first non disastrous month in a long time (+5,000 subs in June), Vodafone KK seem eager to play a role in the VNO frenzy to come in Japan.
More exciting : three new 3G licences are to be awarded by the end of this year ; two in the 1.7 GHz band (FDD) and one in the 2.0 GHz band (TDD). The first two should land in the hands of Softbank and e-Access, while IP Mobile Inc are betting on VoIP & TD-CDMA. They have the techno thanks to their partner IPWireless but their hunt for new investors seems sterile and they lack the marketing know-how. Another TDD competitor, Willcom Inc, proves to have both the technological know-how (Kyocera is a shareholder with 30%) and the deep pockets (the highly controversial Carlyle Group is on board too with 60%). KDDI Corporation hold the last 10% : can the regulator allow this cdma2000 player in the W-CDMA arena ?
There's clearly a window of opportunity for a new player with money, ambitions, and the potential to fill the pipes. With or against the other competitors.
Unsurprisingly enough, Livedoor Co. Ltd recently expressed their plans to apply for a 2.0 GHz licence. They seem to have all it takes, even if their President & CEO, Takafumi Horie, scares the hell out of the Japan Inc establishment since he tried to take over Nippon Broadcasting System (Livedoor are suing Fuji TV for a potential illegal poison pill).
So the company previously listed as Livin' On The EDGE and then EDGE eventualy decided to bid for 3G. If not as famous as Softbank, Livedoor managed to build a fairly impressive interactive / marketing empire in Japan and across the globe. Should they make it in Japan, they could very well make it elsewhere, starting with China or the Americas. Among their jewels :

• Livedoor.com : the third portal in Japan and #40 in the World. One should notice a strategic partnership with SKYPE...
• Livedoor Mobile : founded in 2004 in order to boost the creation of mobile sites, this wireless side of the portal should become the base of the future mobile operator.
• MyRice.com : formerly Lycos China and now a leading convergent portal - in the World's top 100 thanks to 5M daily visitors and 35M daily hits. Livedoor can also leverage on their Dalian unit, China Livedoor Software Development. They even have a subsidiary in Thailand (EDGE Siam).
• interactive marketing is clearly a major asset, going glocal through subsidiaries and partnerships with ethnic marketing specialists. mailcreations.com (a subsidiary of Livedoor Inc, their US branch) claim over 200M opt-in e-mails worldwide : 85M in the US (2,5M hispanics), 22M in LatAm, 16M in Europe and 33M in Asia thanks to such initiatives as melma!, a portal devoted to e-mail news : melma! Spain was created after the original Japanese melma!. by Livedoor Interactive / Cyberclick Agent, the Spanish unit located in Barcelona (also a specialist in WAP & i-mode sites). Livedoor also owns EX Marketing and ValueClick Japan.

Among Livedoor's other assets : SeekOver (a US search engine), Cázalo.com (a Spanish search engine based on the ODP), Innovation Lab (the Group's R&D arm), EDGE Telecom, Joboon (formerly Livedoor Career), Turbolinux (Penguin Inside ?), Livedoor Factoring...

Also to be noticed :

• Livedoor Finance : this is Japan, and any player can turn out to be a potential banker.
• Contents : if they failed in taking over NBS, Livedoor are clearly focusing on contents everywhere. In Europe, their Berlin unit (Livedoor Europe) licenses local software mobile contents. In the US, they clinched a licensing deal with WAU Móvil, a mobile content provider working with 20 operators across Latin America ; Livedoor's True Tones will cover 8 countries for a start. Livedoor also holds AlienQuest.com (a game portal), and an intriguing Broadband Pictures Inc... Consistant, but Livedoor arrived late after the Japanese mobile content wars and remains a dwarf in contents. Their strength seems to lie more in their swiftness or their ability to deliver. Well, that's something.

Up to now, Softbank has been quite a disapointment in the wireless arena, but they're much stronger now. Can Livedoor take the helm ? Can both succeed at the same time ? Can a non-Japanese player make a surprise 3G late check-in ? How will 2G incumbents deal with Mobile Number Portability next year and new competitors soon after ? To be continued.

License to bill

SK Telecom will enter the European market through GPS (their "i-Kids" service could sell with the help of Netherland's SF-Alert, starting with KPN) and implement RFID trials at home with the country's leading retailer (Shinsegae) and a producer with stamina (Korea Ginseng Corp, the king of insam / hongsam). Wireless service it is, no license needed.
At the other end of Eurasia, Alcatel and Nokia start working on cellular / Wi-Fi convergence trough UMA. Not the Thurman show, you know... remember Unlicensed Mobile Access ?
Elswhere, shareholders still rely on ye good ole business model where you pay for a license, you pay for the roll-out, and you pay for telling people to pay even more for your service.