Cool summer

One year after launching a disposable 2G prototype, Apple decided to actually deliver a decent iPhone. If you're into mobility you'll notice the HSPA and GPS tags, if you're into music you'll chose between a 8GB and a 16GB version ($199 or $299). Steve said there were cool SDK gizmos on board as well.

Orange UK's Tom Alexander is talking about marketing issues. The guy came from Virgin and his predecessor Bernard Ghillebaert from Mobistar. Mr Ghillebaert will be learning about Customer Experience at the Group level. Orange customers may be learning about the brand's fabled cool factor - 90s stuff the younger generation could dig.

And the mother of all mergers may eventually reshuffle the cards on the US market : this summer's DNC Convention in Denver could turn out to be friendlier than expected for Barack Obama. So despite Colorado's scorching heats, no sweat there either.

Mobile TV for WIMAX, lingo-free

What's in a name... From IPWireless to NextWave Wireless* and from TDtv to MXtv, the TDD champion abandons the techno lingo for a vocabulary fitter for this meshy / cloudy / blurred world.

Let's forget about the recent controversy about WiMAX, TDD (now), and FDD (soon according to Bill Gateses, someday according to Steve Jobses, maybe according to Arun Sarins, never according to WiMAX haters) ; let's forget about that fabled path towards 4G**: this is about next gen "waves", about giving you the "MAX", about TV on the go.

If you enjoy techno lingo and old style hardware, you can also try Huawei's E510 HSUPA datacard. If your device still has the slot for it next June the 5th.

* see "Social networking for social networks" (20080214)

** see "3G & 4G - WiMAX flirts with ITU" (20070303)

The WiBro Affair

A negative word about WiBro from SK Telecom's CEO ignited a PR frenzy in favor of Korea's "Mobile WIMAX" technology.

Recently endorsed as ITU-R IMT-2000, this member of the 802.16 family is alive and kicking in Seoul. While SKT focuses on HSPA and rolls out WiBro reluctantly, KT insists with the benediction of Korea Inc : the Government, the ETRI, and of course Posco, the mother company of POSDATA, a major promoter of WiBro who's seeking new markets and opening offices in Kuala Lumpur

KT claims 100,000 subs EOY 2007 with the ambition to reach 400,000 EOY 2008, and downloads to be 3 times faster than with HSPA (3 Mbps vs 1). It's WiBro service sounds almost cheap : a little bit under 20,000 wons, that's halfway between ADSL and FTTH.

But Korea Telecom will need to widen the range of devices available - up to now : 10 modems, 5 laptops and 3 handsets (PC Cards and PDAs are also on the market).

And KT needs to spend a lot on IPTV this year.

To add to the fun, competition is definitely getting fiercer in Korea : POSDATA is facing technology thieves within its own staff and 4 researcher have just been put in jail because they tried to steal WiBro secrets for the US.

Now that's a brilliant PR operation : you don't want to steal something you can't sell... Unless you're an art lover falling for rare antiques.

VizaOzavi and other bull's eyes

What's in a name ? With zaOza*, Vivendi decided to drop 2 "vi"s at the edge of Vizzavi, and to add a bull's eye in the middle. Like : this time, I don't want to mess around but to go for the real thing ?... Maybe they purchased Activision to enhance their eyesight and optimize their chances to hit the said bull's eye.

Vodafone and Telefonica are into better targeting too : the Anglo-saxon leader and the Latino leader took a stake in Amobee Media Systems, a mobile advertising joint.

The Shoogle application must target Parkinson disease victims, blurring the frontier between handsets and handshakes. Next time you go to the pub, don't forget to fill her up with scotch.

SMobile Systems targets the soft spot of mobile linux : the first Android app is as sexy and useful as Norton. SecurityShield is the name, paving the way for developpers the game.

Elsewhere :

- NFC takes the tube - the London Underground before a greater coming out ?
- Outdoors, the OFCOM allows UK Broadband switch from TD-CDMA to WiMAX. If they can make it, that is. WiMAX seems to be losing ground in the US, where Verizon picks LTE.
- Korea keeps migrating at high speed : HSDPA claims 3.2 M subs end of Q3 2007 (2.02 for KTF). Users are discovering the beauty of (U)SIM cards and the easyness to drop a handset or an operator for another.
- Turned down by Sprint-Nextel (while KTF and DoCoMo snatched each 17% of U Mobile in Malaysia), SK Telecom takes 38.89% of Hanaro Telecom (including a 25% market share in fixed broadband). SKT discovers true convergence even later than Vodafone - and postpones a much needed boost in internationalization.


* the commercial name of "Vivendi Mobile Entertainment : Vizzavi's Second Life ? " (20070526)

Super 3G trials

NTT DoCoMo announces the end of Super 3G / LTE development in 2009, starting these days with an indoor trial at 300 Mbps downlink between two gizmos. You don't want to stay in that room unless you need a perm. DoC also created CXD NEXT, a 40/60 JV with Casio Computer mating cash registers with mobile devices. iD, FeliCa, ToruCa, and others are rumored to attend the wedding as key witnesses.

RIM announces the BlackBerry 8820, a dual mode 2GSM / WiFi smartphone. SMART enough to switch from one network to the other during a PHONE call. You wouldn't want to use WiFi for secured data sessions, would you ?

Orange UK and PC World announce the "free" laptop for £ 337 (£ 14.99 per month for 24 months, except the first 3 for half the price - and you get a 2MB connection with a monthly limit of 2 GB). You may prefer their £ 300 subsidy on a few other references, or another provider with a better and cheaper free package.

Informa informs us : 6.2% of all W-CDMA subs were HSPA at the end of Q1 2007 and 20.5% will be by EOY 2008. Oh BOY.

106.8% penetration rate for broadband

106.8% for Seoul, 99.2% for Incheon, 100.7% for Gyeonggi province... as of May 2007, 90% of Korean households had a fixed broadband connection, Jeollanam-do being the usual local laggard with a 58.4% penetration rate most G8 countries would dream of posting.

Mobility is also behind with 87.3%. Despite a nationwide HSDPA coverage, 3G remains an EVDO thing for SK Telecom (55% of total subs). With the technical help of DoCoMo, KTF reached the 1st million mark for HSDPA (about 10% of their total customer base + 42% for EVDO) and expect 2.7M for EOY 2007.

IPTV remains relatively low, but more than 500,000 households have already subscribed to HanaTV (Hanaro's VOD service), and after the recent opening by the regulator, KT can at last target 300,000 subs EOY for MegaTV (1M for EOY 2008). Mobile leader SKT is out of that race and tries to enter the PC to mobile communications business. For them, international activities and payment solutions appear once more as one of the few remaining drivers for growth.

NB : this photo "Wireless Korea" (2003) is available on SnapVillage.com as "power lines".

embedded 3G+ and better rates

Strategy Analytics expects a 60% boom for embedded 3G in 2007.
Wi-Fi has already found its slot on laptops*, WiMAX's democratization will take some time, and 3G offers the best bitrate / security / continuity of service mix around.
In the transitional period before the industry adopts embedded connectivity, PC cards will not be as trendy as they used to. USB modems are cool and more consumer-oriented. Less PC-oriented, too, since more devices are to become 3G enabled. SKT proved it last year (with T Login**), KTF a few days ago (with iPlug, a SBSM - Single Band Single Mode - W-CDMA service), and Verizon Wireless today (launching its EV-DO Revision A service with the Novatel USB720 modem announced last year).
Laptops are definitely ripe for embedded 3G and if possible, embedded HSDPA. W-CDMA was too light for many applications run on a laptop, and HSDPA keeps rocking and rolling across the globe. Even in Korea, the country formerly known as Qualcommland, where LGT will launch EV-DO Rev A during the second half : both SKT and KTF are dumping cdma2000 for the W-CDMA - HSDPA - HSUPA - HSOPA roadmap, both will enjoy a nationwide HSDPA coverage this year, and both mean business.
KTF, for example, did launch iPlug with a USB data card, but intends to HSDPA-enable 50% of its handset line-up this year and 90% next year. KTF will have migrated half of its customer base from CDMA to W-CDMA and beyond by 2008 and 100% by 2012.
There is already a fierce competition in subsidies, and data rates should follow soon. SK Telecom just decided to reduce the data fee ceiling (and the level from which benefits are given) from 200 to KRW 150,000, and to slash its "Ting Data Free" flat data rates for teenagers by 30%. Officially, heavy bills deter many customers giving it a try without a flat rate offer (a generally binding and expensive item). But if boosting new usages sounds a noble cause, defending leadership may be a more plausible motivation for Korea's leading MNO : KTF proved a better competitor last year and will strike very hard in 2007. A new marketing culture is being pumped into KT's bureaucracies at the best moment : after years of regulatory hurdles, IPTV and quadruple plays will at last blossom in the Land of Broadband.


* it should keep spreading though, as the extension of the fixed sphere it was meant to be, and often on voice-centric devices - as it does through quad play offers
** see "T Login for HSDPA, EV-DO, WiBro and YouNameIt" (20060920). But today, I would be surprised if SK Telecom and Samsung were not considering embedded 3G+ as a part of their recent international partnership.

3M DMB subs - SBSM on its way

SK Telecom should hit the 1M mark by the end of this year for its TU Media S-DMB service (4% of which being in-car accesses). T-DMB claims 2.2M users because the service comes for free... but for the handsets, whose prices are bound to decrease : over 2.5M T-DMB devices sold this year, good news for Korea Inc.
Now its KTF's time to shine with a first : W-CDMA - HSDPA SBSM handsets are to be released within days.
And yesterday, the draw was held for Seoul Sup Hillstate appartments (Seoul Forest Hillstate). Among other home networking gizmos, the lucky winners will have an elevator waiting for them each time they park their RFID-enabled cars at their parking spot. From their terrace with jaccuzzi and BBQ, they will enjoy a breathtaking view on the Han river as well as on the collapse of the real estate bubble.

Pervasive Korea in US, China, Vietnam...

SK Telecom seems to speed up its internationalization process, more than doubling its subscriber base in Vietnam within one year to reach the 1M mark and targeting 4M by the end of 2008, which would at last sound like a significant position overseas.
But investors tend to be more impressed by less spectacular moves on more demanding markets and Helio doesn't seem to claim many customers in the US. Yet, SKT's UI, T-PAK, is coming up on some Motorola handsets soon. And NATE just locked interesting deals on mobile search engines with Google, and on telematics and in-car entertainment with GM Daewoo cars (TTM 2008) : telematics through NATE Drive, movies through Cizle, music through MelOn... Korea's leading cellco is eventually leveraging on its Jeju Telematics trials*.
Middleware, content and enablers are a surer bet than airwaves, even if Korea Inc keeps pushing its own technos : strong presence during the 2006 China Int’l DAB/DMB Forum & Expo in Beijing, recent deal clinched on WiBro in the US**...
Airwaves do cross the seas, but the other way : W-CDMA / HSDPA were already gaining momentum thanks to SKT and KTF, and now LG Telecom announces GSM-enabled phones by the end of the year. Of course, LGT will invest KRW 400 bn in EV-DO rA over 3 years (including 170 BS in Seoul), but only 15 will be spent by the end of 2006 instead of the 40 planned earlier.


* see "Jeju Telematics celebrates the wedding of GPS and DMB" (20060510)
** Neupara from Columbia, MD (neupara.com), chose POSDATA for its 2.3GHz WiBro trial in the US. Posco's subsidiary joins Samsung in the US market and Neupara keeps pushing Korean technologies after T-DMB in India. Its CEO, Mr John J. Shin, happens to be a Korean-American.

DoCoMo beyond DoCoMo

DoCoMo will soon expand its HSDPA coverage beyond Tokyo in Japan's major cities. 33,000 FOMA HIGH-SPEED handsets were sold during the first month of operation last summer and the MOVA / FOMA ratio fell from 54% to 45% between end of March and end of August 2006.
NTT DoCoMo's overall marketshare keeps going down too, but at a much slower pace (not even one point over the last two years). Churn rate even flirted with the 0.60% line lately. But MNP should boost it back up to 0.85%. And Softbank Mobile starts releasing impressive series of 3G W-CDMA handsets.
i-mode still suffers at the global level and e-Wallet / m-payment services seem to be the only promising driver right now : end of August, DCMX claimed 800,000 users (the service was launched in April) and Felica almost one third of DoC's 47.1M customers (15.5M enabled handsets). Besides, iD will share a common platform (PoS reader / writer, data center) with JR East's Suica next January and others will follow soon afterwards (JCB Co.'s QUICPay and bitWallet Inc.'s Edy). But nothing really new under the sun : JR East and DoCoMo have been working on it for over a year*.
Well... "DoCoMo Vision 2010" is getting older and it starts showing. Multimedia and Ubiquity didn't bring any major disruption, and Globalization looks gloomy. In Europe at least. Teaming up with KTF was the smartest move in the past few years.

* see "Zero noodle. Korea goes South" (20050730)

T Login for HSDPA, EV-DO, WiBro and YouNameIt

SK Telecom having a knack for new brands and new technos, customers must be struggling to keep the pace with the operator's launching machine.
T Login isn't Deutsche Telekom's latest Business Unit but a key to all SKT wireless data accesses (3G EV-DO, HSDPA, WiBro... or why not TD-SCDMA tomorrow* ?) for all devices (laptops, PMPs, digital cameras, car navigators...).
And which common denominator connectivity do you think they picked up before embedded solutions - T Login inside - are available ? Neither Bluetooth nor a vulgar 802.1x wannabe, but Korea's ultimate entry point : the USB.
Yet another proof of SKT's priorities, the first T Login modems will start with HSDPA and add WiBro on time for Xmas and at full throttle 3 months later**. Thanks to KRW 190,000 subsidies, retail prices are slashed to KRW 50,000 or about $ 50, which reflects the importance of this new entry point. SKT decided to boost the buzz by recruiting 30 "quality reviewers" on the web besides the usual pilot testers. Service rates range from KRW 29,900 per month for 2GB (+ KRW 184 per additional MB) to KRW 45,000 for 3GB (+ KRW 123). To be compared to, say, a basic fee of KRW 33,000 for Hanaro Telecom's unlimited Fiber LAN access for cyber apartments.
Overall market is estimated at 2 million people, with the usual suspects mobile office workers and road warriors among core targets, but also students because the group intends to embed its major entertainment brands MelOn, cyworld & Co. too - hell, they even offer dodoris as prelaunch incentives ! In a country where PC cards failed, HSDPA does stand a chance and SKT can leverage on security advantages as well as roaming perspectives for business users.



* since the techno is about to enter Korea (see "TD-SCDMA in Korea" - 20060901)

** No S-DMB in sight and anyway TU media didn't communicate much after the launch of free T-DMB services while KTF claimed 164,000 customers end of May.

RFID shopping and 3G shutting

RFID interactivity starts showing in various shops across Korea. Your mobile phone remains quiet but that shouldn't last long. Major retailers prefer developping their own screens to enhance customer experience : as soon as the shopper picks a product on the shelf, a screen nearby displays more information about it. Just a few items enjoy this feature for the moment but that could be a blessing - you don't want everybody around hearing about the performance of the hemorrhoid treatment you just discretely dropped in your caddy.

Can things possibly go worse for LG Telecom Inc ? The Korean cellco will lose its 3G cdma2000 license, about $300M (the part of the license fee they already paid) + $100 M in fines, and finally its CEO. From the start, LGT was doomed for being Korea's only non-W-CDMA 3G license holder*. More bad news for Doc Jacobs in Qualcomm's former Kingdom...

Things can definitely go bad in Korea : VK loses everything and one should expect more bankrupcies among Korea's small to medium sized handset manufacturers. Samsung looks untouchable as it becomes China's most recognized foreign brand, but profits start shrinking, and not only because of a stronger Korean Won.


* by the way, while launching 3G+, SKT started talking about HSUPA and released their Q1 2006 key figures... starting with a T1 figure : TU Media claimed 534,000 S-DMB subs end of April 2006 (1.2M expected end of year). We'd like to see the end of Q2 stats and the impact of subsidies... Note that GXG joined MelOn and cyworld as a key PR tool for the new King of Content... who doesn't deliver any data yet for his 3D game portal though... MelOn's 5M subs and mobile cyworld 286,000 active users brought respectively KRW 16 bn and 13 bn in revenues over Q106 ; the equivalent of 0.63% and 0.51% of SKT's overall revenues. But the recent deal between SK Communications and T-Online should boost cyworld across Europe... soon on a T-Mobile phone near you ?

Long Term Evolution and short term profits

NTT DoCoMo keep pushing LTE, 3GPP's new label for Super3G (beyond HSDPA and HSUPA - the last step before 4G), and sets an aggressive calendar : specs completed by the end of next year, TTM by the year of 2009.
Not far from DoCoMo's home turf, both KTF and SKT launched HSDPA and WiBro. The former techno is meant to become nationwide and the latter devoted to dense urban areas only... which means pretty much the same both sides of the Han river. But for the moment, WiBro is only a laptop thing (over 300 bucks per PC card plus a 30 per month plan). Since the Korean netiquette prevents people from using their handsets in the subway (definitely a change for the better for passengers), I'm not so sure everyone will connect everywhere that soon. I'd bet a few more bucks on mini mobile TV players for short sessions. At home, even HSDPA cannot beat FTTH in the appateu areas.
Did you know Korea still represented 37% of all license fees collected by Qualcomm last year ? No wonder their armies of lobbyists keep redeeming their Morning Calm miles to and from Incheon these days. Microsoft also remain under the Korean regulator's fire as well but still have more to lose in Europe, where Viviane Reding could furthermore help broadband multiservice providers catch up financially with MNOs (international roaming charges definitely cannot remain that high that long).

A fine slap on the wrist

1.78 billion seems quite a heavy fine but we're talking Korean Wons and not even 2 million bucks. Korea's Fair Trade Commission found out a collusion meeting occurred between the 3 MNOs on June 24, 2004 in order to put a stop to flat rate systems, an attractive concept for customers but a repulsive one for shareholders. For a much milder crime, French operators had to pay hundreds of millions (Euros this time).
Competition again : SK Telecom said their new HSDPA service* would mark a shift in the market "from membership-based competition to service competition". Don't expect this elaborate wording to mean "price war" either. I guess it will go beyond the cultural shift where average customers won't have to take a ticket to be served at the customer service boutiques (VIPs should still enjoy the operators' lavish lounges).
What does this "+ life"** mean then ? A better customer experience for videocalls, downloading and roaming. Videocalls will become faster and cheaper : a W Standard Rate is comin'up soon at a mobile theater near you at 1.3 won per 0.5k packet. Automatic roaming just started with 02 in Frankfurt, Hannover and Leipzig - a 100% coverage for Korea's first round in FIFA World Cup 2006. Voice calls to Korea range from KRW2,444 to KRW2,826 per minute and videocalls stand at KRW 5,829 per mn. Still not cheap.


* see last post "Commercial HSDPA live in Korea" (200060517)
** SKT labels the service "3G+" or more simply "3+"... which makes Hutch a Three Minus ?

Commercial HSDPA live in Korea

SK Telecom launched its HSDPA service in 25 cities yesterday and intends to cover 84 by the end of the year. KTF will follow in June with 50 cities.
Dubbed 3.5G and announced at 5.76 to 14.4 mbps rates, HSDPA will be limited to 1.8 mbps at the beginning due to the lack of handsets : the only one available right now is a W200 Samsung slider model costing 800,000 wons without subsidies. SKT expect handsets to allow 7.2 mbps rates next year and 14.4 in 2008.
W-CDMA was almost shunted in Korea, but KTF are eventually leveraging on their partnership with NTT DoCoMo for the World Cup : as the official sponsor of the Korean Football Association, they're advertising about successful roaming video calls between members of the official supporter group (Red Devils). Meanwhile, WiBro trials started rather discretely in Seoul : only a few southern areas like Gangnam-gu or Bundang are covered and a WiBro Bus* will roam the streets to draft testers. Subscriptions are expected to be twice the cost of a fixed broadband connection.
As for DMB, Korea Pool, the joint negociating arm of all three broadcasters, clinched a deal with InFront to make sure all 64 games are broadcasted. No one will lose and certainly not consumers.

* KT WiBro Experience Bus : www.ktwibrobus.com. Note the pedagogy of WiBro : allIP + Triple Play (Data, Communication, Media) = Personal Broadband.

DoCoMo 4G The Wizard of Hz - Orange Landline Landmines - BT's FRED for free - Swisscom's 5in1 for 99

Bubbles start popping again. Vodafone concede their assets were overevaluated, Florentino Perez concedes the wealthiest club on earth may not the healthiest, and BT concede their disruptive "broadband dialtone" concept won't be free.
Following an interview in "Mail on Sunday", some believed BT would invest big sums in their 21st Century Network (21CN), plus £12M just for VoIP, just to offer broadband to anyone who wants to plug in. Make that "unlimited" instead of "free". Cardiff will go live by the end of the year and the rest of the 21CN (some 30 countries) in 2008, one year ahead of schedule. The aim of the game is for people to meet with FRED (BT's Fantastically Really Easy to use Device concept). Just like in your mid-90s slides, FRED sells convergence, optimized consumer experience, or seamless multidevice environments.
The difference is FRED does sell : BT Movio (to Virgin Mobile), BT Fusion handsets (BT Broadband at home, your MNO on the go - 13,000 units sold to date), BT Equinox (fixed-line SMS), internet radio (PC based and soon an enhanced TV based version with teleshopping, televoting and telewhatevering thanks to a new red button)... FRED will even launch - this spring - the already cult Bluephone (see "Bluephone : a 2,005 pound gorilla or a GNOME ?" 20050316).

Another former PTT keeps talking convergence and furthermore, acting accordingly. Swisscom's HSDPA coverage will reach 20% of the population mid-2006 and about 40% by the end of the year. That's the equivalent of Switzerland's main cities : it will cover more surface on the industry's newspapers than on the local maps but far enough for the operator's new devices to make sense. Less glamour than FRED, but truly "ready to use" : there is a Swisscom Unlimited PC Card 5in1 (GPRS, EDGE, UMTS, HSDPA and WLAN) with a CHFR 99 / month plan, but also an Unlimited Laptops solution developped with Fujitsu Siemens and Acer (embedded SIM, one touch connection, various plans including a CHFR 5 / hour concept, TTM June 2006).

Orange are a former PTT too, through France Telecom's DNA. As expected, they now claim to be "an integrated communications provider" and intend to become "the total communications provider". Orange Landline for Business means fixed line service for SMEs with one stop shopping and billing, simplified supply chain and service support models, convergent packages and bundles, discounted rates between Orange fixed and Orange mobile number ranges or to 'Business Circle' numbers (top 10 landline contacts), Orange Business customer service with a Landline Performance Promise...
But Orange Landline for Business also means Orange Landmine for Partners : the F/MNO controls the whole chain and intends to lock the customer's entry points as fully as it does in France.

How about the mother of all PTTs ? NTT DoCoMo have been talking 4G even before releasing 3G. We knew from the start they meant business because of their capacity problems : even HSDPA / HSUPA cannot solve them and DoC is bound to lead once more in commercial TTM. From time to time, the Alchemist skillfully displays a few glimpses of his witchcraft : "by increasing the number of MIMO transmission antennas from four to six and by using 64-QAM (NB : Quadrature Amplitude Modulation), data volume per transmission was increased from four bits to six bits. As a result, DoCoMo achieved a maximum speed of 2.5Gbps, which is faster than the International Telecommunication Union Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R)'s proposed standard". The Wizard of Hz also pushed frequency spectrum efficiency to 25 bps per Hertz, the limit as defined by WINNER (the EU's Wireless world INitiative NEw Radio). In other words : I've been working on 4G on my own according to the rules and the guidelines of standardization bodies, but I've already beaten their expectations. So you'd better follow me if you want to go further and quicklier.
Technology's always been the MNO's main hobby, but they have some 50 million consumers to please and a few technologies to sell before they get obsolete (i-mode, V-Live, i-motion, FOMA...). So the DoCoMo - Nippon Television Network Corporation JV (each partner injecting 5 bn Yens) will start on April 3 under the D.N. dream partners LLP name. What's in a name... the Master Of DYI finally understanding what kind of partnerships he really needs to succeed ?

SK Telecom - the year of the milking cow

I must confess financial data tend to bore me. SK Telecom's figures for 2005 look nice enough, even after retracting SK Teletech's sale*.
Considering the competitive circumstances, keeping a 50.9% market share and adding 750,000 subs inspires respect. The success of Wireless Internet (26.6% of all cellular service revenue) should be tampered by the vastness of the definition of "wireless internet", but no one can contest the achievements of MelOn and Mobile Cyworld, or the ingeniosity of the MNO's data plans.
2005 was yet another exciting year for them (even when followed from this not so exciting blog), but also a year of restructuration with spectacular changes in management and a significant marketing rationalization (the marketing expense to sales revenue ratio went down from 17.2% to 19.2%).
2006 should be less juicy from a financial point of view : SKT must invest in HSDPA, face the competition of DMB-T and Wibro at home, and push abroad... but the year could prove much more exciting from a strategical point of view, especially in the contents / partnerships arenas and in the US**.

* see "Hardware behind, hard work ahead" (20050504)

** see "Hello HELIO - here comes the sun" (20051118)

CES2006 - beyond Gates, real openings

Billy Boy's pathetic remarks about Google's tendency to overhype future announcements (look who's talking) made the headlines, but I'm eager to see how T-Mobile performs next march with their HSDPA laptops. Less glam but more subs ?
Quite impressed also by Samsung's massive nextgen overload : Blue-ray, MPEG4, Wibro, MediaFLO, GPRS/EVDO S/T-DMB, DVB-H... you name it ! Plus another striking partnership : after Vodafone in the mobile world (by the way, Sammy just demonstrated HSDPA at 3.6Mbps), Comcast and set-top boxes.
They're starting 2006 at the top, but can they keep the pace ?

Wetband-CDMA and Season's Greetings

Every year in Europe, about 300,000 handsets fall down a toilet bowl. LG Telecom (the MNO, not the handset manufacturer) being in deep gimchi, they decided to release Casio's water-proof phones to lighten up their season's greetings. These Wetband-CDMA beauties are quake-proof as well, but LGT are not likely to shake the country next year. Unless they bring a new player into the game, that is.
Korea Telecom took a much more political path announcing the first inter-korean phone service since the War. Mercifully enough, they dropped the Dok-do line.
Korea' national post services surfed yet another wave revealing a brand new set of stamps : the heroes of the day are video games characters. Welcome to the country where virtual monsters are more likely to end up on a stamp than one-term-presidents bound to lameduckood as soon as they're elected.
But Samsung took the nicest slice of the cake : following their deal with Vodafone Group Plc and Qualcomm, they can expect a happy new HSDPA year. I would advise them not to expose any wetphones come next 3GSM World Congress : with all those waves around them visitors always get a perm while roaming the show, but you wouldn't want any of them to be hydrocuted.

I wish you a happy new year too. You've been reading this excuse for a blog from over 120 countries (though more often from San Mateo County than from Ulaanbaatar or Ouagadougou, I must confess) and your comments are always very much welcomed.

CDG : you can't beat demographics

The CDMA Development Group announced on november that the 200M 1x subscriber mark had been reached last september. And that EV-DO claimed 2.2M subs within 3 months to reach 18 M overall (20 M by year end). A far cry from W-CDMA's 35M, but "the broadband solution equivalent to 1xEV-DO will not be commercial until 2006". So HSDPA is the real competitor to EV-DO now... Which release are we talkin about, doc J ? Calling HSDPA the competitor instead of joining the band - as a few CDMA players will do - doesn't look like a smart move to me. If you agree with CDG's definition of 3G, CDMA is already 73% "3G" while GSM only stands at 2% : there are over 1.5 bn GSM fellas out there, and CDMA figures at the end of the year will be 20 M for EV-DO out of 220 M for cdma2000 out of 300 M for CDMA. You can't beat demographics.
The truth is cdma2000 is losing its momentum and 2005 was the year, as scheduled from the beginning*. Qualcomm definitely aren't playing fair these days ; they should focus on innovation trials instead of legal ones. The problem is, just like Microsoft, their vision of innovation focuses on the annihilation of competition. This can't last in an open environment.

* actually, back in 2001, I would say 2006 but W-CDMA can thank 3 for boosting its share of "voice"